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The Market Gage from Roy Friedman
Dillon Gage is proud to offer the following insights into the precious metals market from Roy Friedman. Roy has over 3o years of in-depth experience in all facets of precious metals. We will offer Roy’s comments several times each week.
While most markets were closed on Friday, the U.S. nonfarm payroll number was released and came in surprisingly very weak. Economists were looking for March’s job creation number to be in a range of 250K – 270K, so Friday’s number of just 120Knew jobs created was quite a shock. This will certainly bring talk of a weak economy that will not be able to sustain the mild recovery we have seen over the past few months and speculation over QE3 or other stimulus packages will once again be on the top of everyone’s decision making process. With Europe still off celebrating Easter Monday, the overnight reaction was an across the board rally lead by gold which took a run at $1,650.00 before falling back.
This morning finds gold still trading higher, but silver is taking its direction from equities which are sharply lower as they react to Friday’s data, the concerns over a stagnating or weakening economy through the second quarter of the year and how that stagnation would impact the very important travel / tourist season which is only a few months away. While the metals still feel vulnerable and position traders are comfortable selling rallies, it will take a break of the moving averages in gold before market sentiment is likely to change. This morning finds the 100-day moving average at $1,677.50, the 200-day average is $1,694.00 and the 50-day average stands at $1,701.00. Gold continues to find strong scale-down buying beginning at $1,625.00. Silver will find resistance at the 100-day moving average at $32.05 and again at the 50-day moving average at $33.40. Look for silver to find buying below $31.50 but a significant move lower in equities could prove to be problematic for silver this week.
Roy Friedman has a degree in economics and political science from the State University of New York at Binghamton. For more than 30 years, he has worked at all levels of he industry including as a trader for major Metals firms and international banks. For more information on Mr. Friedman, please click here.
Legend Numismatics Baltimore Coin Show Market Report
By CoinWeek on June 20, 2011 8:15 AM
THIS WAS NOT A SHOW TO COUNT
As always, Mary Counts, David Chrenshaw, Lori Hamrick, and crew did an amazing job as always. Can’t start a Baltimore Market Report without mentioning them.
We do however have a bone to pick with the owners of the show-CANCEL the summer show! It looked like a MORGUE. Each day we had to decide if we were going to throw bowling balls down the isles or make it into a slip n slide. Even though the owners claim the show attendance increased, you’d never know it.
Every dealer we spoke to who are our peers, said they had MISERABLE shows. It is NOT the market, it was the fact this is prime vacation and family time. People are traveling right now. Except for teh OLD days of Long Beach (which also has its issues these days) we do not remember ANY major show EVER being successful in June.
There probably were a few hardy dealers who did manage to sell to retail, but we sure did not. Do not get us wrong, we did amazing WHOLESALE sales, there were simply not enough bigger players who showed up.
We do NOT think anyone can make a judgement on the market based upon this show.
Our suggestion is cancel it-which won’t hurt the market. It will only make the other 2 Baltimore shows better and make the Phili show from a limping show to a growing one. Managent puts on these shows and makes dealers feel like they will lose their tables if they do not attend every one. Its just not right to have a show like this one where at most a handful of collectors were in the hall.
THE COIN MARKET-GOT CAC?
Like it or not quality and CAC stickered coins rule. Check ANY major auction and see what coins sell for the most money, ask ANY dealer which coins sell faster, or just try and find coins with stickers. The demand IS INCREDIBLY strong for QUALITY and or CAC stickered coins. Dreck coins are really in the dumps now trading for cents on the dollar.
CAC has created an additional saftey zone in the marketplace. Smart money has been watching coins forever. Now, we’re starting to see even more of it coming in. There are funds in coins, uber wealthy collectors, and people from all over the world buying US Rare coins now. They want to own hard assets and coins offer unprecedented liquidity. CAC has only been yet another “insurance” policy that goes with third party grading that gives them added consumer confidence. The coin doctors hate CAC every bit as much as they do the grading services. No question CAC was much needed to fight the war against the coin docs and crackout genuises.
At the Baltimore show, CAC coins definately traded the most and for the MOST money. There is no exact way to value a coin with a CAC sticker. ALL published prices except for auction results really are worthless. Most CAC coins generally trade for 25-40% MORE than a NON CAC. In this market where demand is so strong, you have to pay more to buy the better pieces. It is pure BS if anyone tells you CAC coins are not bringing more money than average or drecky coins.
Thanks to exclusively handing CAC coins, Legend Numismatics is having an all time record June. This is NOT hype, this is ALL fact! Legend is a part owner of CAC-and we are proud of it!
We have now heard whispers from unexpected dealers they will be attending the summer FUN Show in Orlando (the second week of July). Dealers NEED great coins! There was nothing but retreads at the Baltimore show in most cases. Not many Want Lists got filled at this show.
We will be attending the Summer FUN. We do not expect much to happen, but when demand is this high you never know!
THE SUPPLY OF GREAT AND OR QUALITY COINS IS AT THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN IN YEARS.
Generics are still in the dumps. The smarter players are going heavy into BETTER gold. We are non stop right now in selling neat gold coins priced OVER $10,000.00. Many people are building collections or are just hoarding their favorite dates. Its pretty interesting. We definately can say the dreaded “I” group (investors) are NOT buying at the moment.
Great Type is also selling strong-real strong. PR Barber material is awakening as is Seated coinage. Walkers have super strong demand. Classic rarities are red hot and PR Gold is on fire as well. Even Morgans are in demand again in GEM. Commems and Buffalo Nickels are still soft.
We have some fantastic NEWPS many are from TWO major partial Type sets we recently bought in the office. The QUALITY is unsurpassed. The coins are genuinely rare. Of course they are all CAC stickered. We invite you to check them out.
Please feel free to email or call us with any questions” email@example.com