by Louis Golino for CoinWeek

There is no question that the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, specifically its role in shaping monetary policy, have a big impact on precious metal markets.

The Fed sets short-term interest rates, whereas long-term rates are pegged to the 10-year Treasury bond, which is a function of how much premium bond buyers demand for investing in a supposedly safe government asset instead of riskier ones.

Since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, however, the Fed’s actions, meetings, and words have had an unusually large impact on precious metal prices.

Those markets seem to hang on every word that Chairman Ben Bernanke utters, and every interview or statement on interest rates or the economy that a Fed governor gives. It’s as if Bernanke were the Oracle of Delphi.

But we may have reached the point where markets and market watchers, especially those interested in precious metals, have become too obsessed with the prospects for more quantitative easing, or QE. It is widely believed that QE will produce future inflation on a major scale, which is seen as good for gold in particular because it is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation.

QE has become almost a fetish for gold watchers and market analysts. This perspective was on full view on April 25 during the Fed’s monthly meeting that is closely watched by economists and finance experts.

There are several problems with seeing QE as the be all and end all for metal prices.

First of all, markets are not very good at digesting Fed meeting minutes and the utterances of Bernanke quickly. They tend to react at first in an almost mechanical way, but then after people have a time to think about what has happened, they often react differently.

This happened on April 25 when gold and silver quickly sold-off because the Fed made clear there will be no more QE in the short-term. But then prices rebounded just as quickly when it sank in that one of the main points made that day is that interest rates will stay low for an extended period, and specifically though the end of 2014, if not later, depending on economic conditions.

Second, many people think that QE 3 of one sort or another will take place after the election, but we should take the Fed at its word that the prospects for QE will actually turn on economic events and conditions in the U.S. and to a lesser extent on what happens in Europe, not on political calculations, which are not the Fed’s purview.

Besides, the Fed has come under a lot of criticism for so-called “money printing,” and if it were to do so without economic justification, there would be a huge outcry. Remember what was said during the Republican primary, especially by Texas Governor Rick Perry, who almost accused Bernanke of treason (except that he could not pronounce the word).

Third, too much focus on QE ignores not just long-term fundamentals like supply and demand but the whole panoply of factors that shape metal prices.

Moreover, there are many reasons why spot gold rebounded back towards the $1650 level within hours of the otherwise disappointing Fed statements on April 25 and headed higher the next day.

It is therefore useful to review the factors that would seem to support higher, or at least stable precious metal prices, and those which point in the other direction. It should also be remembered that prices for silver, platinum, and palladium, the white metals, will turn in large part on economic conditions since they all have industrial applications.

But in terms of gold, a lot of bullish trends and signals are emerging whatever the prospects in the short-term for QE.

An important consideration in this regard is the metal prices are not shaped only by developments in the U.S. There are global forces at work too.

One of the main ones is that the IMF has just announced that 12 central banks around the world, led by Mexico, increased their gold reserve holdings in March.

The largest purchases were made by Mexico, Turkey, and Russia. In addition, it is believed that China also added considerably to its holdings, but it does not report its gold purchases, and information about them often only seeps out years after the fact. In fact, China is not the only country that is coy about its gold reserves, as other countries also frequently purchase more than they report publicly.
Analysts such as Jeffrey Nichols (www.nicholsongold.com) explain that these central bank gold buys help provide downside protection for the price of gold “with central banks buying on dips when their purchases would not be disruptive or particularly visible to other market participants and observers of the gold scene.”

Another bullish sign is the fact that in countries in the Middle East and elsewhere that are experiencing great turmoil, such as Iran, Syria, or Greece, those who have financial assets are looking for liquid and portable ways to move their wealth out of the country and protect against currency depreciation, so they are buying a lot of gold, often paying high premiums.

In Iran, for example, gold buyers recently ordered several hundred thousand gold coins, but the Iranian bank said it could only deliver about half the coins, and that the rest would be payable with paper certificates of deposit.

Second, although demand for gold from China has declined due to the slowing economy there, the Hindu Indian gold buying season has just gotten off to a solid start, which should support higher prices, and I expect the Chinese lull to be temporary. The World Gold Council (www.gold.org) recently said that China is poised to overtake India this year as the world’s largest gold market.

Third, I would not worry so much about QE and would pay more attention to interest rates. Rates are more than likely staying low for the next couple years, despite the rumblings one hears about the possibility of raising them sooner than later because of improvements in economic conditions.

Finally, the whole obsession with QE may be a bit misplaced. Bernanke has stated publicy that he opposes efforts to create more inflation, or to inflate our way out of our predicament. One could argue that his actions will still create inflation anyway, but so far that has not happened as all the excess liquidity the Fed has created has stayed on bank balance sheets and in the accounts of very wealthy people.

On the potential downside, I think a deterioration of the European financial crisis as began to occur in recent weeks is a major consideration, especially with Spain once again having trouble raising the funds it needs from the bond market and the fall of the Dutch government last week.

There are also growing concerns about France, specifically, that either a government led by Socialist Francois Hollande, or even a reelected Sarkozy, may move away from commitments agreed at the EU level to deal with the crisis, and that new tension could emerge in the Franco-German relationship that would be bad for resolving the crisis.

Such developments tend to be bullish for the dollar and generally bad for gold, but they are also not preordained.

And if the economy were to steadily continue to improve, unlikely as that may seem, metals would most likely slide backwards probably towards the $1500 level or so.

I do think we will eventually see both higher inflation and higher interest rates, but it may take longer than many people expect. Besides, gold is much more than a hedge against inflation. It is a form of currency and a hedge against economic uncertainty, both of which remain useful.

Louis Golino is a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. His column for CoinWeek, “The Coin Analyst,” covers U.S. and world coins and precious metals. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA, PCGS, NGC, and CAC. He has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.

by Al Doyle for CoinWeek

Please click here to read Part One of this Article

Collectors with a hard money mentality who want to go beyond familiar series such as the American silver Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf have a growing number of options when it comes to one-ounce silver pieces.

It could take some time to obtain all the silver coinage struck by the Royal Australian Mint. The native kookaburra bird has been featured on the $1 since 1992. The design changes each year, so this is a series with a great deal of variety. Mintages (especially for the privy-marked “Kooks”) are somewhat lower than for other well-known silver bullion coins, so expect to pay more for the scarcer dates.

How many other nations offer a second option in silver bullion? Not surprisingly, the kangaroo is the subject of an Australian one-ounce silver piece. As with the Kookaburra, the design changes each year on the Kangaroo $1. This is an eye-catching series with a distinctly Aussie theme. The cuddly koala bear is extremely popular, and a silver version joined the gold Koala in 2009.

Unless a collector is extremely focused, a diversion into some of the other Australian silver of the past 20 years will be hard to resist. There are a number of proof 50-cent pieces – including some square ones – that weigh in with a half ounce of silver. If big is better, go for Kookaburras from two ounces up to a kilo.

Austria’s Philharmonic became one of the world’s best-selling silver coins within months of its 2008 debut. Combine an ounce of silver with the mix of musical instruments on the reverse plus the high quality of Austrian Mint products, and you’ve got something with broad appeal. This design would become even more of a magnet for collectors in a proof finish. The face value of 1.50 euro is something that may catch the attention of those who like the odd and unusual.

Thanks to a market that extends beyond traditional numismatists, silver Pandas struck by the People’s Republic of China are generally priced at premiums that take the series beyond bullion coin status.

First offered in 1983, not all of the 10 yuan Pandas weigh in at an even ounce. Ever-changing designs makes the series especially appealing to anyone who isn’t locked into collecting identical-looking date sets. Smaller 5 yuan Pandas have been struck since 1993. Uncirculated and proof silver Pandas have been struck, and the PandaAmerica web site along with the Standard Catalog of World Coins are the places to view the different reverses and find mintage figures. If the full set is too much of a financial commitment, you could add a Panda or two to your holdings as type coins.

Like China, the Isle of Man has successfully tapped into the animal lover market through coin sales. In this case, it has been cats since 1988, when the native Manx cat (known for not having a tail) kicked off the one-ounce silver series. Since then, more than 20 cat breeds – including the 1900 “alley cat” of unknown and thoroughly mixed pedigree – have appeared on the 1-crown pieces.

Kittens have made a few appearances, and a wide assortment of Isle of Man coinage is struck by the privately owned Pobjoy Mint. Struck in BU and proof versions, silver Cats aren’t as common as other one-ounce products, so assembling a complete set may take some persistence.

Although mintages are more in keeping with a collectible rather than a bullion coin, the Britannia is popular with hard money investors as well as numismatists. The national symbol is elegantly displayed on silver in an ever-changing mix of portraits. Debuting in 1997 as a proof-only product, business strikes were issued the following year. An unusual fineness of .958 (23 parts silver to one part copper) and a face value of 2 pounds makes the Britannia stand out from the competition.

Fractionals are struck for inclusion in proof sets and are sometimes available as singles in the secondary market. If the British Royal Mint ever decided to make the Britannia a .999 fine one-ounce silver piece with a price comparable to the Eagle, Maple Leaf and Philharmonic, they would have a big seller on their hands.

Who would have guessed that Zambia would issue a continuous run of one-ounce silver coinage? The African Wildlife series featuring elephants and other native animals has been around since 1999. Struck by a private German mint, the Zambian coinage carries a face value of 5000 kwacha, and it’s definitely something the average collector doesn’t own.

Dear Rare Coin Enthusiast,

In this month’s Rare Coin Road Warrior I want to discuss a couple of ‘key’ developments in the business. First, I am going to ‘revisit’ my market report from earlier this month titled “GIGO”. Second, I am going to talk about the news from the Central States Coin Show last week in the Chicago area including the new Ebay announcements and the ratification of PNG ‘bylaw’ changes in regard to ‘Coin Doctoring’. Lastly, I am going to talk about the coin show schedule from a ‘dealer’s’ perspective.

Part One

Do you remember your first copy of the Greysheet? Did you get a ‘copy’ from another dealer? Did you get an older issue from a fellow collector? I picked one up out of a trash can at a show. I was probably 13 years old. At that point in my numismatic ‘career’, I couldn’t afford a subscription and often carried around an ‘out of date’ Coin Dealer Newsletter for weeks.

Do you recall the feeling you had when you got that first ‘Greysheet’? I do and the feeling was ‘pretty cool’! I vividly remember that ‘feeling’ and it kind of went like this….Wow, now I have ALL the information that the other (because I was a dealer now) coin dealers have. Remember the movie ‘The Jerk’ with Steve Martin? The line in the movie was ‘The new phone books are here….now I am somebody’. Although the analogy along with dialogue from the movie isn’t exactly right, I hope you get my point. The Greysheet IS important to the coin business and always has been.

Earlier this month in my Rare Coin Market Report, I berated Coin Dealer Newsletter/The ‘Greysheet’ for inaccurate and ‘out of date’ information. Although I am ‘sticking to my guns’ so to speak on what is wrong with the Coin Dealer Newsletter, there are a lot of things that are RIGHT.

We are part of the information age whether we like it or not. In the mid-seventies when I was a teenager, the Greysheet was the ‘TELL ALL’ sheet of the coin business. Fast forward nearly 40 years and the folks at the Coin Dealer Newsletter are still producing a quality product on a weekly basis that, more often than not, people depend on for pricing information. Most dealers at shows readily welcome the ‘new’ Greysheets distributed by the show producers, although many larger dealers have the information at their finger tips on their laptops or I-pads and don’t consider the information ‘timely’ anymore. Yet the majority of the coin market ‘still’ considers the Greysheet the point at which ALL negotiations start.

In this ‘what have you done for me lately’ world, the Coin Dealer Newletter attempts to satisfy this insatiable need for information. The problem with ‘any’ information is interpretation and accuracy.

Part Two

The Central States Show has been a rare coin circuit BIGGY for decades. The CSNS Show has seen incredible activity like the stellar show last year at Rosemont, IL to market crash in ‘Stinkin’ Lincoln in 1980. The CSNS Show has often been a pivotal show for the rare coin business. The CSNS Show brings out virtually ALL the major players. Because of the “Central” location, the show itself appeals to both large and small dealers and much like the FUN (Florida United Numismatist’s) Show in January, brings out many dealers who don’t normally attend shows. While the FUN Show has the big ‘sun and fun’ aspect going for it in the ‘dead’ of Winter, the CSNS Show has that ‘big shoulders’ kind of feel to it-PERFECT for Chicago right?

This year’s CSNS Show was held in Schaumburg, IL for the first time at a newer Renaissance Hotel and Convention Center. The reviews in regard to the location were MIXED at best. I will get into the specific ‘nuts and bolts’ parts to the show in part three later in my article. Let’s talk about what happened at the show.

The Professional Numismatists Guild held one of their general meetings prior to the PNG Day at CSNS. Only a few shows, like CSNS and the ANA, hold PNG Days prior to the general opening and set-up of their respective shows. Ebay sponsored the luncheon at the PNG meeting and Gene Cook from Ebay addressed the PNG. Ebay in cooperation with the PNG have made several significant and quite ‘HEALTHY’ changes in their respective policies over the last several months.

These changes have included measures to protect the consumer from counterfeit and fraudulent material that was being offered for sale on Ebay and elsewhere in the marketplace. Specifically, Ebay announced earlier this year that ‘Replica’ and ‘Copy’ items would no longer be allowed for sale on Ebay. In addition, Ebay has adopted additional measures to protect the consumer. At the PNG meeting Gene Cook announced that as of May 31^st, only PCGS and NGC graded coins (which incidentally met some minimum requirements for customer protection against fraud) could be offered at the ‘numerical’ grades if valued over $2500.

Other items can be sold, but cannot be described by a numerical grade if they are over this $2500 price limit. One of the biggest reasons for this rule change is the ability by consumers to visit either PCGS or NGC websites to CONFIRM that the serial number of a particular item being traded ‘MATCHES’ the item described. One of the other reasons is overall customer confidence and impartiality. The bottom line is that Ebay wants customers to know they are getting exactly WHAT they are buying or bidding on.

ANACS quickly announced that they are making changes to meet the Ebay minimum requirements by the May 31^st deadline. Kudos to ANACS. For specifics on the new Ebay rules, please visit Ebay’s website.

Change is good, although sometimes it is painful. One of the sayings a high school coach used to say to us during practice goes something like this…’Pain is weakness leaving the body’. Coin Doctoring is the subject that has resulted in a lot of ‘pain’ for many consumers in the past. After months of deliberation and evaluation, the PNG approved changes to their bylaws that addressed these ‘Coin Doctoring’ problems. This newly approved bylaw specifically addresses the ‘intent’ to defraud as the basis for the bylaw. The change in bylaw was overwhelmingly approved. Personally, I believe this has been a HUGE quagmire for the PNG and the coin business itself. The new bylaw is brief, concise, and accurate and represents a great big step in the right direction for the consumer.

In several ‘one on one’ type meetings with Ebay representatives, myself and other members of the PNG, have voiced their concerns regarding consumer confidence and the overall improvement of the coin market. Yes, coin dealers are here to make money-so is Ebay, BUT…the bottom line is all about customer confidence and long term goals that will correct old and often times bad behavior. Both Sherri and I are THRILLED with the overall steps and processes that these new measures represent for our hobby and industry! We are very supportive of these changes and believe that the rare coin business not only NEEDED to change, but that these changes will benefit both buyer and seller in the future.

PART THREE-Covering late March through mid May

Late March. This morning Sherri and I are returning from a good small show in Milwaukee, WI-‘don’t cha know?’. Although Milwaukee used to be a frequent coin show venue, the South Shore Coin Club Show we attended is the only three day coin show remaining in the state of Wisconsin. In the year’s past there were three to five shows per year in Milwaukee usually held in downtown Milwaukee at the Mecca Convention Center. The Mecca is no more and from what one of the South Shore Coin Club members told me, it is doubtful any shows smaller than a Central States or ANA would even be able to afford space at the new convention center.

Part of the problem is ‘CRAZY’ taxation policies in the state of Wisconsin itself. Recently a show in Madison, WI was DESTROYED because of outlandish taxation rules. Overnight virtually half of the dealers planning on attending cancelled their trip. When will shortsighted politicians understand that ‘strangling’ business is like killing the golden goose? California are you listening?

Over the last several years a couple of shows in the suburbs of Chicago have ‘taken hold’ and become quite successful. Like the unfavored step child, Milwaukee has taken a back seat in terms of coin show activity. To a certain extent this is unfortunate, because there are lots of great collectors in Milwaukee, but more collectors and dealers are willing to come to a show in the Chicago area. Truth be told, like a lot of aspects of our lives, it is ALL about money. The more potential collectors, the more money, blah, blah, blah…..

One of the newer show venues that have stepped up since the downfall of the Milwaukee show activity is in Tinley Park, IL. The facility in Tinley Park (at the South edge of greater Chicago) is new and the parking is plentiful. At the recent show in Tinley Park in late February, Jim Paicz did a marvelous job despite bad weather and the confusion surrounding a new show date. This was the first time that this ‘third’ date in Tinley Park has been held. The two other shows in Tinley Park will be held in June and September and we are excited to have tables at both.

This April is unusual in the coin business. There is only one ‘major’ show with only a few regional shows of any size. The Central States Coin Show in Schaumburg, IL in the second half of the month is one of the best shows of the year and the move to Schaumburg vs. Rosemont is, in my opinion, good thinking on the part of the CSNS organization. Rosemont is worn out, overpriced, and crowded. Rosemont has been a good example of ‘extortion’ gone amok over the years, but the convenient to O’Hare Airport location has made it a successful venue that is popular for business travelers especially coin dealers flying into Chicago from all over the U.S.

So Vic, then what is the problem with Rosemont? The Convention Center itself is worn out and ‘dumpy’. The parking prices are astronomical and often times there are a couple of conventions going on which make it VERY inconvenient for potential customers of the coin show to even park and attend. Just last year, the ‘comic book’ convention hurt attendance and CSNS in Rosemont.

Hindsight is ‘twenty twenty’ they say-HA! The Central State Numismatic Society folks did a great job of putting on this year’s annual show, but…attendance was OFF. Because this is the first year for this new venue, I believe this show will improve over the next several years. The CSNS Show will be held in this Schaumburg, IL location for at least the next three years. Overall the facility was very comfortable, but ‘change’ can sometimes be painful and a lot of dealers WERE NOT happy with the venue. Frankly, there are some shortcomings. Unless you have a vehicle, restaurants and other hotels are very inconvenient to reach. The trip from the airport to Schaumberg will ‘CLIP’ you for $60 to $70 by taxi and the location itself although very visible from the interstate IS NOT easy to get to.

The only other bigger shows in the month of April were last week’s Pacific Northwest Numismatic Association Show in Tukwila, WA and this week’s shows in both Dalton, GA and Dearborn, MI. We heard good reports from Tukwila from a couple of dealers who attended. This is a good regional show. The Georgia Numismatic Association Show in Dalton, GA is a good show also, but the attendance at both this show and the Michigan State Show in Dearborn will be diminished because dealers, including ourselves, are just too tired to attend. Unfortunately this ‘too tired because of too many shows’ feeling was voiced by several dealers in attendance at the CSNS Show last week in regard to the upcoming ANA Show in Denver in early May.

When the ANA decided to add a third show to their annual show schedule a couple of years ago, they moved the Spring show to a later date, in May, from the ‘normal’ year’s past March date. This year’s Denver Spring ANA is the first time the show has been held this late in my numismatic memory. Denver is an incredible city to visit and we attend both the Spring and Fall Denver shows as often as possible, but the show schedule is oversaturated and attendance might very well suffer. Several dealers I spoke to at Schaumburg/CSNS last week told me they are cancelling. All of these dealers are too tired and believe the timing is bad.

The success or failure of this new Spring ANA date remains to be seen, but we will be attending both the ‘PRE-Show’ held by Jerry Morgan at the National Western Expo Hall May 3^rd through the 5^th and returning the following week for the ANA itself in downtown Denver at the Convention Center the 9^th through the 12^th. When the ANA originally scheduled this show, they ‘stepped’ all over Jerry Morgan’s Denver Spring Show by scheduling their show the week prior to his, but Jerry outfoxed the ANA and moved his show up two weeks. Frankly, I have to laugh. Because of the ANA’s arrogance, Jerry Morgan’s Denver ‘PRE-ANA’ Show will probably be the show to attend in May. Why didn’t the ANA just try to communicate with Jerry?

Also the first week of May is the new date New Hampshire Coin & Currency Show in Manchester, NH. Ernie Botte runs a quality show and we would love to attend, but for the conflict with Denver. May now has two major shows with the Long Beach Show falling at the end of the month. With the well attended Texas Numismatic Association Show in Ft. Worth May 17^th to the 20^th and the Garden State Show the same weekend the month is full. Fortunately there are no shows the week before Memorial Day and the Long Beach Show the following week.

Bozarth Numismatics Inc is a full service rare coin dealer. We buy and sell PCGS, NGC, and CAC graded and approved high grade U.S. coins. We sell coins at shows and on both our website bozarthcoins.com and in our Ebay store bozarthnumismaticsinc. Because of our extensive show and buying travel schedule we can often locate those ‘hard to find’ items. We offer free confidential want list services and will call or email you ‘first’ if we locate an item for you. Thanks and Best Regards, Vic Bozarth/The Rare Coin Road Warrior.

by Louis Golino for CoinWeek

There has been some interesting discussion on this web site recently about the need for more accurate pricing information about U.S. coins. For example, Vic Bozarth recently wrote about the Coin Dealer Newsletter (CDN), commonly known as the Greysheet (www.greysheet.com), and said that its data is skewed by the inclusion of too many sales of lower quality coins.

Others, such as Mark Ferguson, Laura Sperber, and Doug Winter, have all suggested that the Greysheet, Coin World’s Coin Values Price Guide (www.coinworld.com), and other sources include information that is not accurate about coin values. Mr. Winter recently (http://www.coinweek.com/market-reports/first-quarter-2012-rare-coin-markets-a-quick-recap/) noted how he paid more than $30,000 for a coin which is valued at a fraction of that in Coin World Trends.

To be honest, I rarely refer to Coin World’s retail value information. I know that they say it is based on the value of coins that are solid for the grade and that it draws on multiple sources from auctions to retail sales, but in my view older coins are valued too high there, and the valuation data for many better modern coins is often too low based on my experience as a collector and market analyst.

I find similar problems with Numismatic News’ monthly Coin Market section (www.numismaticnews.net) that provides pricing information, but I do find it to be useful. I know it is hard to update so much information, and for older collector coins, I often agree with these values (which are prepared by Harry Miller). But many times I have found gold coin prices that were below current melt value and other errors.

Michael Zielinski, editor of Coin Update (www.coinupdate.com), recently published an article (http://news.coinupdate.com/a-few-errors-in-the-red-book-1317/) which points out multiple errors in the Red Book, or Guide Book of United States Coins, published by Whitman (www.whitman.com).

Last year I wrote a review of the 2012 Red Book for Coin Update (http://news.coinupdate.com/review-of-the-guide-book-of-united-states-coins-0748/) that made some constructive criticism, particularly on the need for more accurate mintage information on modern U.S. coins. The Red Book, even in the 2013 edition, continues to publish incorrect mintage data on the First Spouse $10 gold coin series that has been available for years from the Mint and various web sites.

One point to keep in mind about the Red Book, or coin bible, as many call it, is that it is only a starting point. To know more, one needs to consult other sources from web sites with modern mintage data to specialized books like Jeff Garrett’s excellent book on pre-1933 gold coins (The Encyclopedia of U.S. Gold Coins 1795-1933). And Whitman’s own professional edition of the Red Book (the third edition came out towards the end of 2011) includes a lot more information about the classics such as auction data, but it is geared towards higher end and higher grade coins.

There is no question that the Greysheet, Red Book, Coin World Trends, PCGS and NGC online prices, etc. are all useful resources, and I am certainly not suggesting that they have no value for coin collectors and market analysts. Each of them generally serves a different purpose, and one should check many different resources before reaching a conclusion.

But I believe that the coin market needs better, more accurate resources, especially on coin values and mintages.

And it is my contention that the coin market and the entire field of American numismatics is held back by the lack of such information. We try to compile it from multiple sources, as best we can, but with no readily available, accurate information that everyone can check, it is difficult to know much a coin is really worth, or many such coins actually exist.

That can suppress market values, lead buyers to overpay for coins, or result in them under or overvaluing their coins for insurance purposes.

Those two data points, value and mintage, are at the heart of coin collecting and investing, and without them one is in the dark.

To be sure, there are many different values to a coin, depending on whether it is a wholesale, retail, or auction price.

And mintage data is also quite complicated for older and more recent coins, and compiling it is an enormous undertaking.

For older coins, one needs to first know how many were made, and then attempt to factor in the number that have been melted over the years, especially when it comes to coins like Morgan dollars, which were melted in the millions under the Pittman Act and other laws. And a lot of pre-1933 gold coins were sent to Europe over the years when America was paying off debts, and many were also melted because of FDR’s executive order that made it illegal to own all but $100 face value of gold coins, or coins with significant numismatic value.

For modern coins, one starts with the Mint’s sales numbers, which are then adjusted to account for returns and other factors. The Mint generally issues a tentative number when sales end, and those numbers are often adjusted substantially at a later date.

This happened, for example, a couple of years ago when the mintage data for the low-mintage 2008 Buffalo gold coins and American gold and platinum eagles were revised significantly by the Mint in 2009. I think that the new, lower mintage numbers played a major role in the subsequent increase in values for those coins.

For many coins, like the spouse gold coins, there is a dearth of published, accurate pricing data. So for those coins I like to use e-Bay sale prices and retail prices at a company like John Maben’s Modern Coin Mart www.moderncoinmart.com to get a sense of what the coins are actually trading for.

The bottom line for me is that the market and collectors spend so much time trying to track down all this data, and a lot of it changes quickly. We could all therefore use an online resource that covers retail, wholesale, auction, and slabbed coin values as well as the known information about mintages.

The closest source that exists to this ideal would be the data that is available at Heritage Auctions (www.ha.com), or perhaps PCGS Coin Facts (www.pcgs.com), and NGC’s Coin Explorer (www.ngccoin.com).

Louis Golino is a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. His column for CoinWeek, “The Coin Analyst,” covers U.S. and world coins and precious metals. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA, PCGS, NGC, and CAC. He has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.

by Louis Golino for CoinWeek

April 15th marks the 100th anniversary of one of the world’s greatest maritime disasters, the sinking off the coast of Canada of the then largest and most luxurious ship in the world, the RMS Titanic. 1,517of the 2,229 passengers perished in the tragedy. RMS stands for Royal Mail Steamer. None of the ship’s mail survived the disaster, but mail that was sent on stops during the ship’s maiden voyage is on display at the Smithsonian Institution’s postal museum.

The ship left Southhampton, England on April 10, 1912 heading for New York City. Four days later the ship hit an iceberg 300 nautical miles southeast of Newfoundland, and three hours later it sank. The survivors were rescued by Canadian ships, and many of those who died are buried in Halifax. Survivors say that even as the ship was sinking into the water, the band kept playing.

The Titanic tragedy has haunted and fascinated the world for a century, and coins with maritime themes have always been popular with coin collectors.

It is therefore not surprising that many coins have been issued marking this important event, particularly by countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States since it was an English ship that sank near Canada (both commonwealth countries). In earlier years various coins and medals were also issued, and some survivors had medals made to honor those who rescued them, such as for the captain and crew of the RMS Carpathia, which played the key role in rescuing passengers.

Canada played a major role in the Titanic story, and it is rolling out a wide range of commemorative coins and stamps to mark this important event. The Royal Canadian Mint (www.mint.ca) has issued three commemorative coins marking the event plus a special reverse proof silver Maple Leaf with a Titanic privy mark and a mintage limited to 25,000 coins.

In 1998 another Titanic privy mark coin limited to 26,000 pieces was issued by Canada. Interestingly, the entire mintage was apparently purchased by one distributor.

History has repeated itself as the entire run 2012 Titanic privy mark coins was purchased by the American Precious Metal Exchange in Oklahoma (www.apmex.com), one of the largest bullion and coin dealers in the world and U.S. Mint Authorized Purchaser. The coin is currently available for what I think is a reasonable price of about $11 above melt value. The coins are selling fast, and once they are sold out of the entire mintage, I expect prices to move higher. The 1998 Titanic privy mark coin retails for about $80 from coin dealers.

Canada’s main Titanic 2012 coins are: a colored quarter in a special folder, a silver-plated half-dollar that uses color only on the ocean, and a half ounce $10 coin. The half dollar sold out in about a day of its 15,000 mintage. Originally priced at $35, the coin is now hard to find and the few coins that have been sold on e-Bay have sold for $170-200 recently. The $10 coin also sold out of its 20,000 mintage, but not as quickly. It typically sells for about $70.

The silver-plated half dollar sold out so quickly of its mintage not just because Titanic-themed items are very popular in Canada but also because 10,000 of the 15,000 coin mintage is reserved for sale in a special collectors set sold by the Canadian Post Office. The set includes both the silver-plated half dollar now going for $200 and the color quarter plus the Titanic stamps issued by Canada, a real White Star Line stock certificate, and some other materials in a leather folder. The sets are still available and cost $140.

Smaller countries often have the mints of larger countries produce coins for them.

APMEX initially priced the coins at $80, but some buyers who bought coins from APMEX sold them on e-Bay for prices in the $120-150 range. APMEX later raised the price to $100 a couple weeks ago, and now it is charging $120, which is about the average current e-Bay price.

The country of Fiji issued an impressive limited edition five-ounce silver coin with a mother of color pearl insert that shows the ship. That coins is bring $1,000 and more now.

The British Royal Mint (www.royalmint.com)) issued a silver coin for the commonwealth country of Alderney marking the anniversary of the tragedy that shows the ship and a statue of Thane from the Titanic memorial in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

The Perth Mint in Western Australia (www.perthmint.com.au) issued my personal overall favorite, a one ounce silver coin with a color insert showing the ship as depicted on the original poster for the White Star Line. That coin has a mintage of 5,000 and sells for $110-130. It was made by Perth for the country of Tuvalu.

Silver and gold coins have also been issued by the Cook Islands, Isle of Man, Jersey, and other countries. The Cook Islands proof silver coin with color is notable because it includes a piece of coal salvaged from the wreck. The mintage of that one is 2,012. Cook Islands also issued a $1 gold coin that has a mintage of 15,000 pieces.
Louis Golino is a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. His column for CoinWeek, “The Coin Analyst,” covers U.S. and world coins and precious metals. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA, PCGS, NGC, and CAC. He has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.

by Louis Golino for CoinWeek

2012, as I predicted in January , has been an especially volatile one for gold and other precious metals. Earlier in the year gold and silver prices saw healthy gains, especially following pronouncements by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that interest rates would be held to close to zero through 2014.

Interest rates are perhaps the key determinant of metal prices, especial real post-inflation rates, since investors know that after taxes and inflation, they are losing money on both bank deposits and Treasury bonds. They have to get yield somewhere, and they are unlikely to put all their eggs in the stock market basket, especially after such a strong first quarter. Equity prices never go up in a straight line and are due for a pullback. To add some diversity to their portfolios investors are likely to look to gold and other commodities like oil.

Then at the end of February on Leap Day, prices dropped dramatically in one day.

Many people explained the move as a reaction to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke that seemed to reduce the prospects for further quantitative easing, even though on that very day, as I have explained before , the European Central Bank moved to make hundreds of billions of euros in low-interest loans available to European banks to prevent a collapse of the banking system across the pond.

The more likely explanation for the Leap Year drop is a series of very large sell orders that were executed so quickly that the move was compared to last year’s flash crash in stocks. Then we saw a rebound in prices, as bargain buyers came in and gold headed back towards $1700.

But the first week of April witnessed another major drop, once again largely caused by the Fed. The minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting were released on April 4. Fed members focused on recent signs of improvement in the economy and said there was less need for more QE in the short-term but never actually took it off the table, reserving the right to do what it takes to keep rates low to prevent the economy from deteriorating again.

But markets took that as a sign QE was being taken off the table, and metals once again tanked.

Dennis Gartman, a well known commodities trader and analyst who appears frequently on television, said at the end of March that it would be foolish to sell one’s gold. He apparently changed his tune virtually overnight after the Fed minute release. Now he says that the two decade-long bull market in gold has come to and end, and that he expects prices to fall below $1600.

He said in his latest Gartman Letter that in retrospect gold has been in a bear market since last August, when it briefly surpassed $1900. This is surprising as Mr. Gartman has generally been bullish on metals, though he has shifted his views back and forth a great deal in the past year. Mr. Gartman’s views on metals have been characterized as flip-flopping by Tyler Durden (www.zerohedge.com) to such an extent that Mr. Gartman is seen as lacking credibility by most other metal analysts.

What is going on here? Are precious metal prices really driven solely, or even primarily, by the prospects for additional monetary easing in the U.S.? What about the rest of the world? What about market fundamentals like supply and demand? Do these not matter at all? Is it really lights out for precious metals?

Of course, no one knows for sure, and this is a confusing and quickly changing issue. But I think many people are getting ahead of themselves, misinterpreting what the Fed really said, what it is likely to do, and ignoring the global factors that help shape metal prices.

There are several problems with the current conventional wisdom that the bull run in metals is over or nearing its end, though I would definitely not rule out plenty of short to medium-term weakness.

First, a third round of quantitative easing does seem less likely in the short-term. But it won’t be long before the economy deteriorates, especially as we approach another protracted budget battle and struggle to raise the debt ceiling. In the view of Peter Schiff, CEO of EuroPacific Capital, too many people have what he calls “recovery fever,” believing economic conditions have improved more than they really have.

Already the rating agency Egan Jones has downgraded the U.S.’s credit rating another notch to AA from AA+, which is the second down grade since last summer’s debt debacle. If things get worse, the Fed will need to make more asset purchases, extend the maturity of bonds, or do some creative version of more QE. It is running out of options, yet has little choice but to continue on the QE path.

Second, whatever the U.S. does, other Central Banks have already made clear that they plan to continue their own QE. The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan have all made this quite clear. In addition, officials from the Bank of England suggested recently that it was a mistake for Britain to sells its gold in the late 1990′s, and that it may be time to build up new gold reserves. Other central banks are believed to be purchasing more gold already, but they do so quietly.

Third, supplies are expected to remain tight and demand robust throughout the world for precious metals, especially in a negative real interest rate environment, even if in the short-term China’s economy continues to slow. China will still have a huge appetite for precious metals.

Fourth, metal prices are driven to a considerable extent by currency developments. Whatever happens day to day, the long-term secular trend continues to be dollar debasement and weakness. That will help support higher metal prices over time.

But in the short to medium-term, as worries about the European debt crisis return, there will be pressure on the euro, which will provide some brief dollar rallies that will create downward pressure on metals.

At the end of the day, it is the direction of the economy and the interest rate environment that will be key determinants of metal prices. Increased fears of recession will drive investors back into metals. As Peter Schiff told subscribers to his newsletter, “The recovery is not only going to falter – it’s going to evaporate like the mirage that it is.” Only time will tell if he proves to be right, but I would be surprised if we do not see at least some faltering of the recovery over the next year.

The disappointing jobs numbers released on April 6 may be a sign that the recovery is already faltering like it did this time last year and at the same time in 2010. And the acceleration in job growth the past couple months probably had a lot to do with the unusually warm winter most Americans experienced.

If Mr. Schiff is correct, the economy will deteriorate again soon, inflation will pick up before long, and metals will resume their upward trajectory. But if Mr. Gartman’s latest views prove correct, then we could see a big drop in metal prices soon, as investors flee risk assets.

Since there is no way to know at this point, and so many moving parts to this issue, the best course of action is to try to think longer-term and focus on fundamentals, which I believe continue to remain bullish for metals.

Louis Golino is a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. His column for CoinWeek, “The Coin Analyst,” covers U.S. and world coins and precious metals. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA, PCGS, NGC, and CAC. He has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.

Dear Rare Coin Enthusiast,

With the great Baltimore Coin Spring Show just a couple of weeks behind us, I am curious as to what direction the U.S. Rare Coin market will go in April. Tax season is not kind to the coin business. Taxes have to be paid and that desirable coin might have to wait until next month if it is still available. With the gold and silver market down, activity at Baltimore was surprisingly good. This show venue is just fabulous. Folks love coming to Baltimore and the great people at Whitman, especially David Crenshaw and Lori Hamrick, really go out of their way to make this show work. Attendance was really good and business was brisk.

I have written extensively about my belief in a coin market that ‘will explode’ eventually. I believe this to be the case for several reasons. First, there are lots of really great coins that are trading at or near all time low price levels in the last fifteen to twenty years. Second, few truly nice coins are available at current levels. Wait a second Vic, what about all the coins in the Stacks/Bowers auction? Yes, there were some great coins in the Stacks/Bowers auction, but how many didn’t sell, were bought back, or brought WAY less than current Coin Dealer Newsletter bid prices. Oh, and NOW you have to pay a 17.5% buyers fee!

Have you ever heard the saying about ‘manure running downhill’? Crappy coins bring crappy prices, especially when they are crammed into a phone book sized auction catalog and sold at no reserve. Nicer, one of a kind coins bring great prices, but ‘run of the mill’ stuff, partly because dealers are consigning coins in large numbers at no reserve, is bringing nothing or not selling at all. This causes a whirlpool effect almost like a toilet flushing. Because so much ‘stuff’ is being consigned to auction and so little of it actually sells at reasonable levels (like Coin Dealer Newsletter bid), bids drop.

The double whammy is that Coin Dealer Newsletter, where 75% of the coin pricing information ‘comes from’ doesn’t have a qualified numismatist on staff and hasn’t had one in their employee for years.

When crappy coins bring crappy prices at auction, these prices are monitored by CDN-Coin DealerNewsletter and reported as lower levels. YET, the record prices for a small handful of rarities are reported on the front page of the CDN Greysheet. The problem with this system is the totally baseless quantification of quality. Greysheet is reading prices realized from auction, accumulating the data, and selling it to dealers and anyone else who will subscribe.

The quality of the data itself is the problem. In computer programming the term they use is GIGO-Garbage In/Garbage Out. If you get bad or flawed data, accumulate it and then report it, what arey ou going to publish-GARBAGE. Without a competent numismatist on staff, Coin Dealer Newsletter is publishing GARBAGE.

Yes, they have added some new features listing CAC price levels and trades. Yes,Bluesheet was created years ago to list the ‘sight unseen’ bid levels for slabbed, mostly PCGS and NGC, coins. BUT, and here is the rub, how is it interpreted?

Let me give you an example. Morgan Dollars are by far the most popularly collected U.S. coin. Morgans graded by PCGS bring nice prices, but would you believe that the same Morgan Dollar date in the same grade can have a price disparity of over 50%. It really isn’t that unusual. In the past, the Greysheet was for ‘sight seen’ coins. For YEARS, this meant nice coins for the grade, usually untoned/white or brilliant coins or nicely toned coins with attractive color. For the last couple of years the Greysheet bid for many Morgan Dollars is completely meaningless. Once CAC coins started hitting the market, the Greysheet picked up bids for CAC coins and published those as the NEW ‘sight seen’ levels.

CAC has done nothing wrong. In fact, CAC has put a magnifying glass on the disparity in price between crappy coins and nice coins. BUT, Greysheet didn’t distinguish that their Greysheet sight seen bids were for CAC coins and many dealers have taken advantage of this. Does that mean that just because a coin does NOT have a CAC sticker that it CANNOT be worth at least Greysheet bid. Frankly, for many dollars this has become the case. The fault is not with CAC. The fault is in the GARBAGE being reported.

Sherri and I travel extensively to buy really nice coins sight seen. We usually have to pay ‘greysheet’ levels for NICE coins. Because I am buying coins on a daily basis as a dealer, I usually know when the greysheet bids are BASELESS, but do you know?

Over the last several years dealers have started using Auction Prices realized information, in addition to the Coin Dealer Newsletter information, to determine the price levels for coins. So does this information ‘better’ represent what a coin is worth? NOT! In a significant amount of cases it is more GIGO-garbage in/garbage out.

If coins bring nothing at auction does that mean the prices are crashing? Yes, sometimes it does,but…often the lower prices at auction are purely the result of way to much ‘crap’ and even nice coins are being offered in a venue where no real buyers have the wherewithal to participate. Frankly, dealers especially have so little time at major shows that participating in an auction that runs until one a.m. isn’t a great option after working for ten hours on the bourse floor.

Let’s be realistic here.

The Russians used propaganda to great effect. For example if the Russians and the U.S. were competing in a big dual (two participant) event and the Russians lost, their media would report the next day that the ‘Heroic Russian Athletes took Second’ in a great International sporting event. Actually, didn’t they finish LAST-more GIGO-Garbage In/Garbage Out.

Bozarth Numismatics is a full service rare coin dealer. My wife Sherri and I travel over 200 days a year buying ‘fresh to the market’ rare coins. We list our extensive inventory on our website Bozarthcoins.comand in our Ebay Store under Bozarthnumismaticsinc. We buy and sell PCGS, NGC, and CAC certified U.S. Coin. We offer free and confidential want list services. Because of our extensive show and buying trip schedule we can often locate ‘coins’ other dealers just can’t find. We also write both this ‘market’ report and The Rare Coin Road Warrior each month. Check us out online or at a major coin show in your area.