by Louis Golino for CoinWeek

Late last year the 25th anniversary American silver eagle sets that were released at the end of November dominated the modern U.S. coin market.

There was literally a frenzy of interest in these sets. Thousands of opened, unopened, and graded sets traded on e-Bay and elsewhere, and for a while prices were rising almost daily, as is the usual pattern following the sell-out of a hot Mint item.

Interest in the sets remains high, and many were bought and sold at the recent FUN show held in early January in Florida, but the frenzy seems to have cooled a little bit, as collectors turn to other issues and prices begin to stabilize.

Price performance

Graded sets, especially those with a perfect MS/PF-70 grade for each of the five coins in the set, have been eagerly sought by collectors. But as I suggested would happen last fall, prices for 70 sets have fallen dramatically from what they were bringing when the sets were first released.

Raw sets have been bringing approximately $750, but many retail coin dealers charge $850-$1,000. I have noticed that many sell out quickly of their stock of sets.

Sets graded MS/PF-69 are now trading at the same levels, or just above, what raw sets bring. Not long ago they sold for a premium of a couple hundred dollars over a raw set.

Prices for 70 sets vary quite a bit. NGC sets sell for $1100-1300 on e-Bay, while PCGS sets are bringing $1400-1500 typically.

With all the sets being graded it will be interesting to see how many fresh, original raw sets remain in several years.

Prices for the 2006 20th anniversary sets recently saw a nice bump. I suspect this is because newer collectors who bought the 25th anniversary sets found out about the earlier sets and decided to get them too.

With more buyers and the same supply of sets (250,000 total but with no estimates of how many raw sets remain), prices went higher. Raw sets are now fetching close to $500, whereas before the release of the 25th anniversary sets they could be had for $400 or less.

I predict that unopened 25th anniversary sets, which are eligible for submission to the grading services, will be remain a hot commodity, and prices for them may eventually reach almost the same level as 70 sets. An unopened box of five sets recently sold for $4600, or $920 per set.

The Mint and grading companies

Meanwhile, tempers remain flared among many collectors, especially towards the Mint, but also to a lesser degree towards the leading third party grading companies, especially because of their requirement to ship the entire unopened box and then pay a special fee to have it returned.

Because so many sets are getting 70 designations values for 70 sets and singles have dropped significantly from initial levels.

On the other hand, since we can not check the quality of unopened sets prior to submission to the grading companies, it is a real gamble to submit them in hopes of getting the top grade. If one receives 69′s or less, it is hardly worth the considerable expense and trouble of sending them in.

Another important point is that the percentage of sets that have been graded 70 by NGC vastly exceeds those graded 70 by PCGS even though retail prices are not always different for the two.* For example, at Modern Coin Mart (http://www.moderncoinmart.com) the NGC and PCGS sets both sell for $1450. Eventually, prices for PCGS 70 sets should be much higher than NGC sets.

The U.S. Mint continues to be the subject of almost constant criticism from collectors who were unable to order a set from the Mint, or who did, but who feel the Mint botched the release of these sets.

There is a broad consensus that a household limit of five was too high for a set that appealed to so many collectors. Views are more diverse on whether more sets should have been made. But I think we should also give the Mint credit for producing a beautiful set that should perform well in the coming years.

2012-S

A major development that emerged from the recently released U.S. Mint Annual Report for 2011 is that the Mint is considering releasing another San Francisco burnished coin, a 2012-S eagle. The report says the Mint officials look forward to expanding the burnished eagle “S” series this year.

Some collectors were upset by this news because it means only one coin, the 2011 reverse proof, is now unique to this set. Moreover, if there are more “S” mint coins, and since there was a reverse proof in 2006, no coin in the set would be totally unique.

But first of all, it is not a done deal that the Mint will issue more “S”mint eagles. And second, what really matters is the mintage levels rather than the uniqueness of coins, at least in my view.

Since the mintage of the 2011-S remains at 100K it will still be the lowest mintage non-proof silver eagle issued. Unless the Mint issues something later with a lower mintage, this coin will remain a major key.

I would recommend holding on to any sets you own for the long haul if you can, and don’t worry if they start an S mint series. If there is a 2012-S, it will undoubtedly sell several hundred thousand. Besides, who knows what they will do for the 30th anniversary, though I doubt it will have a mintage lower than 100K after all the flack about the 25th anniversary sets.

One key factor that should help support higher prices for the 25th anniversary sets is the fact that so few people own the entire mintage. The Mint has indicated that the average order was for 3.7 sets. Factors in the dealers and e-Bay entrepreneurs who managed to get far more than 3.7 sets, and this means that something like 20,000, or more likely even fewer people, own all 100,000 sets.

A significant number of them appear to be owned by collectors who plan to hold on to their sets for the long haul, even if they bought multiples, and an ever-expanding number of silver eagle collectors, should mean higher price levels in the coming years.

Finally, there is the issue of possible new varieties and error coins from this set, which I will address in a separate article soon.

*To illustrate the point I examined the population information on the PCGS and NGC web sites for two of the coins in the 25th anniversary sets. At NGC 72% of the 2011-W coins received MS-70, whereas at PCGS only 54% were given the top grade. For the 2011 bullion coin, the NGC number was 70%, and the PCGS figure was 52%. The figures vary from coin to coin in the set, but the pattern is there. It is clear that PCGS gave out the top grade much less often than NGC.

Louis Golino is a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. His column for CoinWeek, “The Coin Analyst,” covers U.S. and world coins and precious metals. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA, PCGS, NGC, and CAC. He has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.

by Louis Golino for CoinWeek

This article discusses world coins from 2011 that I believe are the best of the year either because they are significant and interesting issues, or because I think they will appreciate in value over time.

It includes numismatic releases and collectible bullion coins with limited mintages. All were issued last year, but some are dated 2012. Australia and some other countries put the following year on coins issued during the last quarter.

Almost all are silver coins, and the lunar dragon releases dominate this survey because they largely dominated the modern world coin scene in the past year.

The selection of coins is also based on in part on the past price performance of similar coins, or coins in the same series. Past performance with coins, as with stocks or anything else, is no guarantee of future performance.

These kind of coins are purchased primarily because the buyer likes the design, or the coin has some other personal significance or resonance for them.

But many also have solid worldwide demand and very low mintages and therefore may increase in value separate from their metal content.

1.) Year of the Dragon releases: Perth Mint coins

The number and variety of dragon-themed 2012 coins is remarkable. It is the “largest annual coin program on the planet” as explained in an excellent recent survey that appeared in Numismaster .

The coins were issued by many countries, particularly in Asia and a number of Commonwealth countries, to mark the 12th and most popular sign of the Chinese Lunar calendar, the dragon. The Chinese Lunar season begins in February.

These various dragon coins have been so popular worldwide that bullion producers have even released a number of dragon-themed silver and gold bars and rounds to cash in on “dragon-mania”.

The coins issued by the Perth Mint in Western Australia have attracted the most interest of all the 2012 dragon coins because of a combination of attractive designs, low mintages, and Perth’s reputation for excellence.

The limited edition sets of proof silver dragons, the dragon lunar type set, and the rectangular colored dragon set elicited the most interest. These sets sold out in hours between September and December 2011.

Prices have moderated after peaking following the sell-outs, as almost always happens with limited issue modern coins – American and foreign.

But they still sell for substantial premiums over issue price, and as those sets change hands from speculators to collectors, prices should eventually go even higher given the limited supply.

American collectors tend to focus so intensely on U.S. coins that I think we can lose sight of what appeals to people in other countries.

Foreign collectors, as John Winkelmann of Talisman Coins explained in my interview with him last year, are much more interested in world coins than Americans are, although the number of world collectors in the U.S. is growing.

Jeff Garrett recently wrote a commentary for NGC in which he predicted that world coins will become more popular and more valuable this year.

The U.S. market for Perth Mint coins is strong. Just be careful to shop around and study e-Bay closing prices over time to get a sense of the real value of an item before purchasing it for an inflated retail price.

For example, a couple months ago I was able to purchase a gilded Perth dragon issued in 2000 and graded MS-69 by NGC (with a very low population) for less than $200 even though the same coin retails for $500 at several major dealers.

The 2012 one ounce silver bullion dragon, limited to 300,000, currently sells for about $90-100. If one looks at the performance of earlier Perth dragon releases from 2000, I think the 2012 bullion coin is worth purchasing.

In addition, the one ounce gold bullion dragon, limited to 30,000 pieces, which sells for about a $300 premium over the gold price also has good long-term potential. There are smaller gold dragons in the same design as well as two ounce and larger coins.

The 2 ounce silver proof Dragon, which was only released as part of a 1,000-edition set, is my favorite coin from the vast Perth 2012 dragon line-up. It is a truly scarce coin with sold demand. It is a larger diameter than most two ounce coins.

Once in a while an NGC-slabbed example is offered on e-Bay, but this does not happen often, and I know of only one U.S. dealer who has carried this coin; John Maben’s Modern Coin Mart.

2.) Other dragon releases

In addition, there are some beautiful and very low mintage dragon issues from other countries. Rather than list them all, I will highlight a couple that readers may not be aware of and which I find to be interesting coins.

France released an attractive lunar coin that has an intricate depiction of a dragon on the obverse, and an image of famous French fable writer Jean de La Fontaine on the reverse, and a mintage of 10,000. The coin is available in the U.S. from Royal Scandinavian Mint .

The Mint of Finland produced what is one of the more unusual dragon releases for the country of Fiji.

Many smaller countries have European mints produce their coins for them. Poland made a color pad dragon for the Asian-Pacific island nation of Niue.

The Fiji release is the Yin and Yang dragon, which uses color pad printing, and consists of two pieces that fit together and which are reversible. It is a very popular coin, but only 4,000 are available, which has already driven prices from about $135 to a current retail value of $200.

Finland also made a filigree dragon for Fiji. It is a very elegant coin also limited to 4,000 pieces.

3.) Canadian Wildlife Series

This is a new bullion series modeled on the highly successful half ounce wolf coin released in 2006 and featuring animals that live in Canada. Each coin is limited to 1,000,000 pieces, and with worldwide demand most dealers regularly sell out of their relatively limited supply of these coins.

The coins released so far include the grizzly, wolf, and cougar. The first two already carry a premium and sell for about $50 each. The cougar, the most recent issue, is still available for about the same price as an American silver eagle (2011 mintage of almost 40 million), making it an excellent way to purchase silver.

4.) Kookaburras

The Kookaburra is the national animal of Australia. Each year since 1990 the Perth Mint has issued one, two, and ten ounce and one kilo bullion coins depicting kookaburras.

The one ounce coins are limited to 500,000 and carry a premium over silver content. Retail prices for the coins vary a lot depending on the dealer.

From what I have seen the ten ounce coins seem to carry the highest retail premiums for past releases. Even the 2012 ten ounce coin is hard to find and usually sells for a relatively high premium over melt value compared to other large bullion coins.

6.) Italian commemoratives

The Italian Mint issues very attractive 10 euro proof silver coins that are issued in limited numbers. They are among the harder to find world issues. Their level of artistic achievement is extraordinary.

The two from 2011 I would highlight are a coin honoring Amerigo Vespucci, the Italian explorer for whom the American continent is named, and a coin marking the 500th anniversary of the birth of famous Italian painter and architect, Giorgio Vasari, who also founded the field of art history.

The Vasari coin is probably the most attractive world coin issued in 2011, in my view. It is also available from Royal Scandinavian Mint. This coin is part of a series honoring Italian artists.

7.) Silver Britannia

Finally, another well-designed bullion coin to consider is the 2012 silver Britannia from Great Britain. It is the latest in series that started in 1998. It is limited to 100,000 coins, but can be obtained for under $40. Some earlier issues sell for several multiples of that price.

Louis Golino is a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. His column for CoinWeek, “The Coin Analyst,” covers U.S. and world coins and precious metals. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA, PCGS, NGC, and CAC. He has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.

By Doug Winter – Raregoldcoins.com
A CoinWeek Content Partner

A popular feature of the www.raregoldcoins.com blog is the “what’s hot and what’s not” article that I write at the end of every year. As its the very end of what’s been an interesting and active year, let’s take a look at what was in demand in 2011 and what you, literally, couldn’t give away. We’ll look at a number of areas in the market and determine a “heat index” based on my personal experience in the 2011 coin market.

1. Gold Dollars

This was a mixed market area but overall it was fairly strong and in some cases it was very strong. The segments of the gold dollar market that were strongest were superb, one-of-a-kind Type One and Type Three issues (especially “wonder coins” graded MS68 and MS69) and very high quality Dahlonega issues (especially better dates such as the 1855-D, 1856-D, 1860-D and 1861-D). Areas that remained flat or trended downwards in 2011 include mid-level Uncirculated New Orleans pieces and San Francisco issues. The weakest segments of the gold dollar market included Gem common date Type Two issues and MS65 through MS67 common dates from the 1880′s.

2. Quarter Eagles

Early quarter eagles were a strong area in the market. This was especially true for attractive, original coins in the EF40 to MS63 range that were priced at $50,000 and below. A few nice 1796 No Stars quarter eagles sold in 2011 and these generally saw prices that were higher than in the previous couple of years. Early quarter eagles priced at $100,000 and up remained hard to sell, unless they were either very rare or very nice or, ideally, a combination of the two.

The Liberty Head series saw mixed results in 2011. Nice circulated Dahlonega pieces were good sellers and even Charlotte coins, at least those in the $2,000-5,000 range, sold well if they possessed good eye appeal. The very high end of the market was strong. Ultra rare issues such as the 1841, 1854-S and 1863 all saw strong price increases in 2011. The surprise “trendy date” of the year was the 1864 which, in a short period of time, saw explosive price growth as collectors realized how rare it was.

Most quarter eagles dated 1870 and later remained hard to sell, even those with low mintages. There were a few exceptions (the low mintage 1875 became popular in 2011) but this seems like an area in the market that offers good growth potential for collectors with a budget of $1,000-5,000 per coin.

2. Three Dollars

After a rough patch of five or so years, the Three Dollar market showed more strength than I can remember. Buyers were fussy and coins that were not high end were hard to sell. The most popular dates included the 1854-D, 1855-S, 1861-1864 and the low mintage issues from the 1880′s. Dates that were hard to sell included the 1854-O, 1865 and 1877. The rare Proof-only 1875 was a good seller while the not-as-rare Proof 1876 was harder to sell.

Prices on better dates in MS63 to MS65 have dropped to levels that make them prime for a promotion in the coming years. There are enough nice to very nice coins available (not factoring in common issues such as the 1854, 1874, 1878 and 1889) that I would not be surprised to see prices for nice coins rise.

4. Half Eagles.

The market for early half eagles was very quality conscious in 2011. As an example, a common date early five such as an 1803/2 in AU55 to AU58 was worth 5-10% more if it were CAC-quality as opposed to the typical washed-out, unappealing example. The grade range that really began to see price separation due to quality was MS63 to MS64. There are early half eagles in MS63 holders that are hard to sell at $25,000; the exact same issue in the same grade with a CAC sticker and real eye appeal can be an easy sale at $30,000+.

The market for very rare early half eagles was hard to gauge in 2011 due to so few pieces trading. But in the Heritage 2012 FUN sale there is a superb date run of rare half eagles including an 1819, 1821, 1825/1, 1826, 1828, 1828/7 and both varieties of 1829. I expect these coins to bring record prices and the “heat” that they generate is likely to spread to the rare but more more obtainable dates of this era.

The Liberty Head half eagle market was generally good in 2011. The areas that were strongest include collector quality Dahlonega pieces, rare Civil War dates and high quality New Orleans issues. Areas that began to show some tentative strength included No Motto Philadelphia issues in AU and Mint State grades and rare but formerly unpopular low-mintage dates from the 1860′s and 1870′s. The market for Carson City half eagles in 2011 was mixed. There were not many nice coins on the market and the better dates that did sell only brought solid prices if they were very choice.

5. Eagles

While not everyone realizes this, eagles were probably the strongest denomination in the gold coin market in 2011. Nearly all areas were as stronger or stronger than in 2010 with the exception of early eagles (1795-1804) which remained off their market highs of a few years ago. But this statement needs to be clarified. Most of the early eagles that are offered for sale are very low end for the grade. Nice early eagles sell for 10-20% premiums over their low-end counterparts.

The Liberty Head eagle series came into its own in 2009 and since then, prices have been strong for choice examples of rare and low mintage dates. In my opinion, prices of rare, low mintages issues such as the 1863, 1864, 1865, 1872, 1873, 1876 and 1877 are still very low in comparison to less rare but more popular double eagles from this era.

The Carson City eagle market was similar to that described above for the half eagles. If a coin was choice and rare, it sold for a strong price. If it were just so-so, the price ranged from decent to slightly above average. But if a real “pig” was offered (and some of the CC eagles in holders are grossly overgraded) it might bring a distortingly low price. Collectors are urged to work closely with an informed specialist and to learn how to distinguish a choice, original piece from an overgraded low-end example.

6. Double Eagles

For the last five years, the Liberty Head double eagle market has seen an inexorable march upwards in price. In the second half of 2011, this area of the market seemed to weaken a bit, probably due as much to the steep rise in bullion prices as a natural correction.

The always-popular Type One market softened a bit but remained strong. CAC approved coins brought good premiums, especially for issues like the rarer New Orleans mint coins where eye appeal was a real concern. Premiums for rare shipwreck coins remained very strong in 2011. If an S.S. Central America, Brother Jonathan or S.S. Republic coin that had a population of just a few coins was available at auction it brought many multiples of a non-shipwreck coin’s price.

The Type Two market was a bit stronger than in the last past few years. The market for common dates in MS62 through MS64 dropped rather significantly but scarcer dates (such as the 1868, 1869, 1870 and 1871) rose in AU and Uncirculated.

The bullion-related Type Three issues and the condition rarity market declined in 2011 but the market for truly rare issues (1881-1886 and 1891 Philadelphia) was strong.

7. Proof Gold

This was a strong area of the market in 2011 and part of the reason was a greater supply of choice coins than in recent memory. Strong prices were seen at the Heritage 2011 FUN sale where the Henry Miller collection, which contained dozens of superb rare date Proofs, brought very strong prices. Coins that were in demand include very low mintage issues and virtually all pre-1880 half eagles, eagles and, especially double eagles.

8. 20th Century Gold

The various 20th century series saw a mixed year in 2011. Common date generic issues saw significant shrinking in premiums over spot and in some series, coins were trading for tiny premiums.

A series that was stagnant in 2011 but which is primed for attention is the St. Gaudens double eagle. The upcoming sale of the Dr. Steve Duckor collection, to be sold by Heritage next week in their FUN auction, includes many very choice, very rare issues which are likely to bring record prices. This may not necessarily impact lower quality examples of these dates but it will clearly bring a lot of attention to a series that has been flat since the Morse Collection sale of 2005.

A series that seemed to be quietly attracting collector and investor attention in 2011 was the Indian Head eagle. I only handled a few interesting Indian Head eagles in 2011 but the coins I did own sold quickly and generally to smart dealers.

All in all, I look at 2011 as being a good year for the rare gold coin market. Not a great year but certainly a stronger one than 2009 or 2010. It was a year that rarity and originality became more in vogue. It was a year that soaring bullion prices were a big story during the first three-quarters. My firm DWN had an excellent year in 2011 and I am personally excited about the coming year and what it will bring.

Posted by Scott Schechter, NGC Vice President

Scott Schechter reviews new discoveries and new issues of modern US coinage in 2011.

2011 has been a very significant year for modern US coinage. A handful of new discoveries and new issues make that statement easy to prove. Here we’ll briefly discuss these coins and consider how they will rank relative to the coins included in the book 100 Greatest Modern U.S. Coins, which was released early in 2011.

One of the stated goals of 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins, the book that I co-authored with Jeff Garrett, was to stimulate discussion and interest in recently released US coinage issues, 1964 to date. We believe that the coins included in the book are of seminal importance to the area of modern coin collecting, yet new information changes our understanding of the coins that constitute the 100 Greatest. The lists looks different at the end of 2011 than it did at the beginning.

Proof 1975 No S Dime

Throughout the years, a handful of proof coins have been struck at San Francisco with the S mintmark omitted in error. All of them appear on the list of 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins, with the 1968 No S Roosevelt Dime garnering the number 3 spot. The 1975 dime, although first discovered and reported in 1977, had fallen back into the realm of “unconfirmed” by the time the 100 Greatest was published. Only two examples had been reported and neither had surfaced publicly since 1978, well over 30 years ago. We did mention this coin in the book, of course, during the discussion of the 1970 No S Roosevelt Dime (number 54): “If it does exist, the 1975 No-S dime is one of the great rarities of the 20th century and will assume a vaunted position on the list of 100 Greatest Modern U.S. Coins—likely the number one spot. But until it’s confirmed, it remains off the list.”

Well, in 2011, these two coins re-surfaced and we learned their full history. Both coins were discovered in the late 1970s by a single collector in California. After his discovery was confirmed, he sold both examples to dealer Fred Vollmer in separate transactions. Vollmer then placed them with two collectors in 1980. For 31 years, both coins, the only examples to ever come to light, have remained in their respective collections.

When an example at last sold at public auction in Stack’s-Bowers’ sale on August 18, 2011, it realized $349,600. As previously stated, it certainly deserves a lofty spot on the list of 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins.

2007 Frosted Freedom Proof Platinum Eagles

Each year the Mint changes the reverse design of the proof Platinum Eagles. In 2007, the design featured an eagle with outstretched wings behind a shield. Draped across the top of the shield is a banner inscribed with the word FREEDOM. On normal issue pieces, the word appears in mirror-finish, contrasting sharply with the frosted banner. In early 2011, a small number of preproduction strikes were made showing the entire design frosted including the word FREEDOM, thus giving this variety its name.

Mint officials said they had chosen to modify the coin’s design to make the word more readable. A small number of these prototype coins were inadvertently released to collectors. The total number of coins said to be available is as follows: $100 (1 ounce), 12 coins; $50 (1/2 ounce), 21 coins; $25 (1/4 ounce), 21 coins; $10 (1/10 ounce), none produced.

Because Platinum Eagles don’t enjoy the same popularity as some other series of modern coins, like Silver Eagles, and because the variety is a small variation on a one-year design type, this coin will likely never earn the high ranking that its rarity suggests it deserves. Based on those numbers alone, it should be a top 10 coin, but likely it will settle someplace higher. There is one coin that does appear on the list that is similar to these coins: the Cheerios Sacagawea Dollar (number 14). This is also technically a prototype coin that was released publicly.

2010-P Light Finish Grand Canyon 5-Ounce Silver Quarter

The legislation that authorized the America the Beautiful Quarters, the current circulating quarter dollars, included an unusual provision. Three inch versions of each coin, struck in five ounces of pure silver, were also to be produced. The complexity of creating this very novel coin meant that their production was much delayed. The forth issue made for collectors, the 2010 Grand Canyon issue, was actually released in July 2011.

Each of these coins was issued in a bullion version, without mintmark, and a specimen version for collectors was also made with P mintmark for Philadelphia. For each coin in the series, 27,000 pieces were produced. The specimen versions of these coins have a heavy matte or granular finish created by a relatively enigmatic mint process called vapor blasting. Variations in the blasting media or the blasting equipment settings caused the finishes of these coins to vary. In contrast to possessing a heavy granular surface, some examples could be seen with a soft satin finish, dubbed LIGHT FINISH.

It is estimated that a quarter of the mintage exhibits this light finish, around 7,000 pieces — so it’s a scarce item. Since the initial discovery, light finish examples of earlier issues have also been found. As the most widely available piece, the Grand Canyon coin is most apt to be collected in both formats, and likely will garner a spot on the top 100 list. There are no real comparables, as this is the first oversize coinage issues released by the US. Also, the finish variation makes this a rather atypical variety as well. We expect it to rank in the bottom quartile of a future compilation of the 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins.

Interestingly, the Mint quickly acknowledged these finish variations as a shortcoming of its equipment. They announced in late July 2011 that new equipment was being installed to ensure greater consistency in these coin’s finishes. Indeed, less variation was seen in the surface finish of the Mount Hood coin released a month after the Grand Canyon issue.

25th Anniversary Silver Eagles

These coins were coveted from the start. The set of five Silver Eagles went on sale at noon on October 27, 2011. Before 5:00 pm they were sold out. What makes the set truly special is that it contains two exclusive pieces, both with mintages limited to 100,000 pieces.

First, is a reverse proof Silver Eagle minted in Philadelphia, similar to the 2006 reverse proof struck to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the series. Reverse proofs have a “backwards” finish with mirrored design elements and frosted fields. Since this is seldom used on US coins, it is an unusual feature that makes these coins very popular with collectors. The 2006 issue is ranked number 11 on the list of 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins but it has a mintage of 250,000 pieces, much larger than the 2011 issue. Over time, the 2011-P Reverse Proof Silver Eagle will likely be seen as a more desirable coin and displace the 2006 issue.

Second, is the 2011-S Silver Eagle. It is the first and only uncirculated finish Silver Eagle to bear the “S” mintmark for San Francisco. While bullion issue Silver Eagles have been produced in San Francisco in the past, these were always issued without mintmark. So this coin is the only one of its type and it is limited to just 100,000 pieces.

The 2011-S Silver Eagle is similar in some respects to the Proof 1995-W Silver Eagle, struck to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the Silver Eagle. The 1995-W’s mintage is very limited at just 30,125 pieces, earning it the rank of number 4 on the list. Another similar coin is the Uncirculated 2006-W Silver Eagle. It was the first uncirculated finish Silver Eagle issued with a mintmark and only 466,573 were produced; it’s number 64 on the list. This coin will certainly fall somewhere between the two on a future list of 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins.

These are just a few of the discoveries and issues that shaped the year in modern coins. While new developments were inevitable, the significance and number of these events could not have been predicted. Jeff Garrett and I are pleased to contribute to this ongoing dialogue surrounding modern coinage. We hope that the 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins assists in providing context to future chapters of this ever unfolding story.

Images courtesy Stack’s Bowers Galleries and Collectors Society.

by Louis Golino for CoinWeek

This is the first of what will be a yearly column in two parts. The first will review the key developments in coins for the previous year and will discuss how I see the coin market developing in the coming year.

The second will provide the same year-end review and outlook for the coming year on precious metals.

I think the coming year may prove to be a strong one for numismatic coins, especially if the economy continues to recover.

Bullion Crowds Out Numismatics

Bullion has dominated the coin market to such an extent in the past year that it has been crowding out the collectible coin market apart from the very high end sector of extremely rare coins.

Many coin buyers had to curtail their purchases because of financial problems during the three years since the 2008 financial crisis. That has resulted in some good buying opportunities to acquire coins that others were forced to liquidate.

I suspect that trend will abate in the coming year, depending on overall economic conditions.

I think many dealers and collectors are ready for a break from the almost constant focus on precious metals. They want to get back to numismatic coins like classic commemoratives and type coins, and this shift, if it occurs, should help drive prices higher.

The January 5-8 FUN show in Florida always sets the tone for the market’s first couple months. Heritage Auctions will hold a major event, which should help spur interest in rare coins. The high-grade collection of St. Gaudens double eagles owned by Dr. Steve Duckor is expected to generate a lot of interest and million-dollar price tags.

2011 U.S. Mint products

In 2011 the Mint released collectible coins at a frenzied pace and gold rose about 15% for the year, which strained collector budgets to the limit.

The 2010 bullion versions of the five-ounce America the Beautiful (ATB) coins and the five-coin 25th anniversary American silver eagle sets generated the most interest.

A number of other 2011 releases have strong potential to increase because of low mintages, and I will discuss these in another article.

The 2010 ATB coins were released in much smaller numbers than expected, and the coins were difficult to obtain during the first couple of months of the year, which drove prices to absurd levels that quickly crashed.

This type of development occurs frequently with modern coins. The high, early prices almost always come down once more coins come to market. It is generally advisable to wait for the market to settle down, as supply and demand factors converge to set a lower price.

It is easy to get caught up in the frenzy of modern issues with low mintages, though there are time when it is best to act sooner rather than later. But the key is to identify those issues that have the best chance of generating sustained interest.

A good example would the 25th anniversary silver eagle sets. Many collectors plan to hold their sets for a long time, and as newer collectors learn about this special set, they will want to add it to their collection, which will help drive demand and prices higher.

2012 U.S. Mint highlights

Highlights of the Mint’s 2012 product offerings, at least based on what is currently known, include silver and gold commemoratives for the Star Spangled Banner and a silver dollar for infantry soldiers; the five 2012 America the Beautiful five-ounce coins, which have very eye-catching designs that may help spur renewed interest in this series; the year’s First Spouse gold coins, which are likely to include more unusually low mintage issues; and the proof Buffalo coin.

The Mint at one point planned to release the first U.S. palladium coin next year, an American palladium eagle with an obverse based on the Mercury dime and a reverse based on a medal designed by Adolph Weinmann. The Mint is apparently still in the process of determining whether there is sufficient demand to produce such a coin.

The Mint will probably continue issuing burnished silver eagles, and it may also issue one ounce burnished American gold eagles, as it did in 2011.

The Mint plans to implement a new ordering system during the second half of the year that will be designed to better handle high-volume ordering periods. It will be interesting to see if this results in even faster sell-outs of high demand, limited edition issues, as the playing field becomes more level.

Native American dollars, which have reverses that change each year will feature a male Indian profile and a horse. Presidential dollars will only be issued for collectors.

Classic coins

There were three major trends in the classic segment of the numismatic market in 2011.

First, premiums on generic, PCGS and NGC-graded pre-1933 gold coins remain very low by historic standards. When gold hit a new all-time high of $1906 on August 22, premiums briefly rose to more normal levels, but they have since retreated and continue to represent good value.

Second, the same trend emerged for generic, common-date slabbed Morgan and Peace dollars in MS63-MS66. When silver approached $50, demand for these coins and retail prices reached levels not seen since the late 1980′s, but they have since retreated to just a little above the levels they were at before silver rose.

Third, as has been the case for some time, it became harder to find decent quality, good eye appeal 19th century coins that have not been graded, especially those with original surfaces.

Astute collectors can still spend a few hours at a major coin show and find coins that fit this bill, but I do not recommend purchasing them from a mail order dealer unless they are a very high end company like Legend or Stack’s, or a company that you trust from experience.

There is just too much polished, cleaned, unattractive material of this kind, especially at mail order companies.

All in all, 2012 promises to be an interesting year for numismatists and coin investors. If bullion resumes its bull run, collectors will have tough decisions to make about which coins they can afford to acquire, and they will worry about losing money if bullion crashes.

Stay tuned to this column, and I will do my best to keep you informed about important developments and significant opportunities in U.S. and world coins and precious metals.

Happy Holidays to all CoinWeek readers

Louis Golino is a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. His column for CoinWeek, “The Coin Analyst,” covers U.S. and world coins and precious metals. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA, PCGS, NGC, and CAC. He has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.