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By Doug Davis – NCIC on Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Filed Under: Coin Crime Alert, Press Releases

On April 2, 2010 the Numismatic Crime Information Center and several dealers in the Los Angeles California area were instrumental in assisting the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s department in a dramatic arrest and recovery of $95,000 in rare Chinese gold coins.

Det. Lord with the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department contacted the Numismatic Crime Information Center at Numismaticcrimes.org and requested assistance on an individual attempting to pawn six 1921 China Republic $1 gold coins for $20,000 a piece. Doug Davis Founder/President of NCIC contacted Det.Lord by phone and offered the services of the Numismatic Crime Information Center. While on the phone Det.Lord and other officers had the suspect under surveillance and Lord proceeded to explain the circumstances to Davis. Det. Lord advised Davis that they were in the process of taking down the suspect and would need assistance in identifying the coins. The suspect was arrested and the coins confiscated.

Det. Lord forwarded pictures of the coins to Davis which were housed in plastic 2×2’s and had stickers imprinted with a number and the name Sotheby’s on the outside. Concerned about the authenticity of the coins Davis contacted PNG dealer Robert Van Bebber to assist investigators. The coins were taken to Van Bebber and after examination he validated the authenticity of the coins. In addition, contact was made with Sotheby’s who identified the coins as being those sold in a 1986 auction.

Although there had been an arrest and the coins recovered no victim had been identified. Davis contacted several dealers in the southern California area who specialize in world coins to determine the potential identity of the victim. No one could provide any information on the offense. During the course of the investigation an informant advised investigators that the suspect had burglarized several businesses in the Los Angeles area and showed them the locations. Investigators contacted one of the business owner‘s who identified the coins. The victim had bought the coins for $25,000 in a 1986 Sotheby’s auction and did not know they had been stolen.

“This is the first case we have investigated involving coins and the resources provided by the Numismatic Crime Information Center were invaluable in the successful conclusion”, said Det. Lord. The suspect a known felon was charged with several burglaries and faces life in prison.

“The Numismatic Crime Information Center commends the cooperation and collaboration of each coin dealer who assisted during the investigation of this numismatic crime, “said Davis.

The Numismatic Crime Information Center is a 501 (c) (3) non-profit corporation working to coordinate initiatives between law enforcement and the numismatic industry in “Targeting Numismatic Crimes around the World”. The success of NCIC depends on the financial commitments from dealers, collectors and the numismatic industry. All donations are tax deductible

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By Vic Bozarth on Monday, October 11, 2010
Filed Under: Featured, Market Reports & Prices, Tips for New Collectors, US Coins

By Vic Bozarth – Bozarth Rare Coin Market Report

How are rare coin prices determined? Often the question dealers will ask is: “I know what Greysheet (Coin Dealer Newsletter bid) is, but what can I ‘really’ get for it?”

In this month’s Rare Coin Market Report, I will explain how I determine the value of an individual coin. Most often I will use a variety of different pricing sources to determine the value of a coin.

The most utilized source of rare coin pricing information among dealers are the variety of Coin Dealer Newsletter publications including Greysheet, Bluesheet, Monthly Summary, and the Quarterly Supplements. Dealers also use CCE, which is the Certified Coin Exchange. Coin World Trends, Collectors Universe prices, Redbook, and Coin Prices are also utilized.

In the last several years auction prices realized have become one of the most useful and often misunderstood sources of pricing information. Let me explain a little bit about all of these different sources before I explain how I use them.

CDN’s multiple publications include the Greysheet, Bluesheet, Monthly Summary, and Quarterly price sheets.

The Greysheet and Bluesheet are weekly publications and list many of the most frequently traded U.S. rare coins, BUT the values they list vary significantly.

Basically Greysheet lists sight seen bids for attractive coins. Bluesheet lists sight unseen bids for coins that might not be that attractive although they are graded correctly. Because I am looking for attractive coins, I often have to pay Greysheet bid or more for an attractive coin. If someone offers me a coin I don’t particularly like I am going to check the ‘bid’ on Bluesheet to see what the ‘basal’ value really is.

Depending on the particular coin the difference between the Greysheet and Bluesheet can vary as much as 70%. Yes, 70%!

CDN Monthly Summary is published each month and includes more of the frequently traded U.S. rare coins by date and grade including the early twentieth century gold series and most of the classic twentieth century collector series.

One of the three different CDN Quarterly issues come out every month and the three include all the other U.S. rare coin series by date. The Quarterly One issue contains half cents through quarters. The Quarterly Two contains halves through $3 gold coins. The Quarterly Three contains prices for $5 Liberty through $20 Liberty Gold Coins.

All prices for the Monthly Summary and Quarterly price sheets are for sight seen coins. There is also a supplement included with each month’s Quarterly Supplement that has prices for Proof coins not listed in the Quarterly Supplements.

Certified Coin Exchange is a dealer to dealer network owned by Collectors Universe/PCGS. Dealers pay a monthly service charge to actively bid or access the bidding information on this system. The bids are ‘live’ during the main business hours, roughly 11 to 4, Monday through Friday depending on what time zone you are in. These live bids are either S, sight seen or U, sight unseen. CCE also includes a couple of other marketing areas as well as the newer variation of the old dealer ‘teletype’ network.

Much of the information for CDN/Coin Dealer Newsletter bids comes directly from CCE. S-Sight seen bids are for coins that can be returned if the buying dealer feels they aren’t nice for the grade. U-Sight-unseen bids are for anything in the proper grade in the designated holders with no return privilege. Bids for PCGS and NGC coins are predominate although there are bids for ICG and ANACS coins.

Coin World Trends, Coin Universe prices, and Coin Values are all ‘retail’ pricing guides. Although the prices listed are GENERALLY what one would expect to pay for a NICE collector coin, I as a dealer often pay more than these supposed ‘retail’ prices for especially scarce or elusive coins.

Many of the more modern items are listed, but the values are quite subjective. Information updates are often neglected in these price sources. Many times, especially in rising or falling markets, the prices are just wrong. The Redbook or Guide to United States Coins is a fantastic source of information, BUT it is published ONCE a year and the values are geared towards the casual collector.

The last and most misunderstood source of pricing information are the ‘Auction Prices Realized’. The biggest U.S. rare coin auction houses sell thousands of coins each year at public auction. These prices most often include a 15% buyer’s fee. The information is incredibly valuable, but misinterpretation is really a problem. For a fee, you can access APR information on the PCGS website. PCGS compiles and lists coins by date and grade and has APR numbers for coins going back roughly fifteen years. Heritage Auctions have sold the most certified coins at auction and therefore their database is the largest individual auction company source. I use both the PCGS APR listings and the Heritage APR listings especially when determining an infrequently traded coin’s value.

Are you confused yet? You should be-HA! Many full time dealers don’t really understand the nuances that come with determining a coin value. If they can buy it at Bluesheet-sight unseen bid-they feel ‘safe’ because they haven’t paid any premium over the basal value. If they are only willing to pay Bluesheet numbers they are invariably going to get a high percentage of ‘ugly’ sight unseen coins. The problem with buying bargain basement material always comes down to this: YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR!

To illustrate how I determine the value of a coin I am going to give you two examples. The first is for a frequently traded coin that exists in relatively large quantities, but has a huge demand. The second coin I am going to use as an example is a rare coin that might only come on the market once or twice every couple of years. Determining the value of the first coin is easy. On the second coin I will utilize virtually all the pricing sources I have mentioned previously. From that data, I will then determine both a price that I am willing to pay for that coin as well as a price I feel is fair to my customer.

Coin Number One: 1885CC Morgan Dollar MS65 PCGS. Although the 1885CC Morgan Dollar in MS65 is roughly a $1000 coin in MS65, it isn’t particularly rare but it is scarce and it has a huge demand. Not only do people love Morgans, but Carson City Morgans sell like ‘hotcakes’. Nice CC Morgans are out there, but the difference between an average coin and sight unseen coin is easily 20%. Let’s look at the bids and then I will make some observations.

Coin One:
1885CC Morgan Dollar MS65 PCGS. Mintage: 228,000. PCGS/NGC total population MS65: 5366

• G/S $900
• B/S $830
• CCE Sight $890
• CCE Sight-unseen $830
• C/W Trends $1250
• Coin Universe $1200

The prices vary as much as 33%. A pretty sight seen coin will cost me between $875 and a $950 to purchase in the wholesale market. To make a profit, I will charge between $1025 and $1100 for a NICE coin. If you want a sight unseen coin, I can probably sell you one for about $925 or less.

Don’t make the bargain hunter mistake. Yes, you can save $100 to $175 buying a sight unseen coin, but someday you are going to want to SELL that sight unseen coin. Sight unseen coins don’t magically become nicer sight seen coins. Both dealers and collectors are looking for NICE coins with eye appeal. Don’t settle for average. You will PAY for it in the long run.

Coin Two
1866 $3 Gold AU58 PCGS. Mintage: 4000. PCGS/NGC total population for AU58: 77.

• Greysheet Bid (for a common $3 Gold type coin): $1475
• Greysheet Quarterly Bid (for the date): $2575
• Bluesheet Bid: N/A
• Coin World Trends: AU55: $2500 MS60: 4000
• Coin Universe price: $3700
• Auction Prices Realized (last two years): $2875, 3450, 3450-N, 3910-N, 3565, 3450.

The prices listed vary significantly especially between the Greysheet ‘date’ bid and the Greysheet ‘type’ bid. The ‘type’ or common bid price is for the most common date in the series while the ‘dated’ CDN Quarterly bid reflects the price for a coin with a tiny original mintage with true scarcity. The ‘type’ bid does provide a basal value, but for this illustration is not pertinent.

Both Coin World Trends and Coin Universe prices are supposed ‘retail’ prices for the date, but for a low population coin with a mintage of only 4000 they are actually a little low. The Auction Prices Realized are all over the place. How do I determine the value?

After looking at the ‘bids’ for the date I refer to the APR-Auction Prices Realized. First I see how many have sold at auction in the last several years. If the prices realized fall into a tight range, my job is easier. If several have sold for roughly the same price and this price range fall between the ‘dated CDN Quarterly bid and the Coin World Trends or Coin Universe prices, then there is a good chance that the coin is worth roughly what they have sold for at auction. Basically an ugly coin will be worth less and a pretty coin will be worth more.

If the prices realized have both a wide range and don’t fall between the CDN Quarterly bid price and Trends Coin Universe prices, then the price determination becomes more difficult. Several questions should be asked that may or may not be answerable.

First, did one or two examples fall significantly out of the price range?
Second, did several sell during the same time period or in the same auction? Lots of factors drive the bids in an auction, but the biggest factor is whether the buyer paid a premium because they thought the coin would grade higher.
Third, if several coins are sold in the same auction that possibly came out of a little hoard or collection, an ugly coin could bring significantly less. In addition, several examples of the same scarce coin coming on the market at the same time can depress the price realized.

Here is what I see when I examine the Auction Prices Realized. The $3910 was an exceptionally nice coin or a potential breakout. The $2875 coin was an ‘ugly’ example. The other four prices all fall within a tight range. CDN Quarterly bid is $2575. Collectors Universe price is $3700. Coin World Trends is somewhere between $2500 and $4000. The four coins in the mid price range are probably attractive coins for the grade. An attractive example is worth somewhere between $2700 and $3100 wholesale and, if priced fairly should bring $3400 to $3800 for an attractive coin.

Remember ‘bids’ are just numbers on paper or a computer screen. This is a coin I just purchased recently. I paid $2800 and ‘flipped’ it to another dealer for $3000. Both myself and another dealer were willing to pay more than CDN Quarterly bid ($2575) for this coin.

For this example the 15% buyer’s premium has to be taken into consideration also. Many folks don’t understand how this 15% or ‘juice’ affects the value of a coin. Often times this 15% is split between the auction house and the consignor. Often times a dealer consigning a coin to auction will actually get between 1.05 to 1.08 of the 1.15 that includes the hammer price and the 15% buyers fee. In other words, the consignor is actually getting a little more than the ‘hammer’ price. The auction house is willing to give up part of their 15% to secure nicer consignments.

Where does CAC fall into the mix? CAC was founded in 2007 to ‘sticker’ coins that met their requirements for both nice eye appeal and correct technical grade. Basically, they are grading the graders. CAC coins bring more money. Frankly, I feel they should. CAC has done an excellent job of ‘stickering’ coins that are not only nice for the grade, but totally original. CAC coins often bring between 5% and 50% more than current bid levels on a wholesale basis depending on the particular issue.

The information I have provided today is very subjective. A nice coin will generally bring more whereas an ugly or darkly toned coin will bring less. There are dozens of additional considerations to determining the value of a coin. My goal with this article has been to provide you the consumer with an insider look at how a dealer values a coin.

Comments and questions are always appreciated. My methodology isn’t ‘rocket’ science, but these procedures have served me well over the last couple of decades. When pricing a coin, the quality of the coin itself should be paramount. I often pay ‘WAY OVER’ bid levels for an exceptional coin. Don’t be afraid to pay extra for an exceptional coin. Most often those are the coins I sell first!

Bozarth Numismatics offers hundreds of rare U.S. coins on their website bozarthcoins.com or via eBay each month. We attend over 40 shows a year and write another column each month called Rare Coin Road Warrior. You can view either our Rare Coin Market Report or Rare Coin Road Warrior articles each month on our website bozarthcoins.com or at coinlink.com.

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I’m in the habit of cheating a little bit and reading the appropriate verses a bit early. My iPhone has a very nice (and very free) application that allows the user to read the Bible in his choice of translations; it even provides a selection of reading plans. So, when I receive these e-mails, I take advantage.

Recently, one of these e-mails mentioned the passage in Mark 12:41-44, the parable of the widow’s mite. The New American Standard Bible translation reads as follows:

And He sat down opposite the treasury, and began observing how the people were putting money into the treasury; and many rich people were putting in large sums. A poor widow came and put in two small copper coins, which amount to a cent. Calling His disciples to Him, He said to them, “Truly I say to you, this poor widow put in more than all the contributors to the treasury; for they all put in out of their surplus, but she, out of her poverty, put in all she owned, all she had to live on.”

I’ll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions about the meaning of the passage; I prefer to leave the theological discussions for Sunday. However, coin weenie that I am, I noticed the following (Mark 12:42): “A poor widow came and put in two small copper coins, which amount to a cent.”

Stop right there. The concept of a cent didn’t exist until about the 18th century; never mind that the value of a cent changes both over time and depending on who issued it. Something clearly got lost in this translation. How much were the widow’s mites really worth?

Most of the additional translations were unrevealing. The King James version states, “And there came a certain poor widow, and she threw in two mites, which make a farthing.” Other available versions of the Bible translate the value of the coins as:

* “together [they] make half a cent”
* “only a few pennies”
* “a penny”
* “less than a cent”
* “very little”
* “less than a penny”
* “only a few cents”
* “a fraction of a penny”
* “a measly two cents”

Generally, the references to “penny” were from English versions, while the references to “cents” were from American versions. One version didn’t try to determine the value at all, which is probably a better translation than most of these. Probably the best translation of the choices above is “very little,” which sidesteps the question of an exact value, but does an excellent job of getting the point of the parable across. But then I came to the New King James version:

* “a quadrans”

Now we’re getting somewhere. This value may not be obvious to the 21st century reader, but that doesn’t prevent modern versions of the Bible from continuing to use other obsolete measurements such as ephahs, shekels, and cubits, and those measurements don’t vary with inflation. The term “quadrans” makes plenty of sense in the context of Christ’s time (if not necessarily his place), and upon doing some additional research it appears to be accurate.

In numismatic terms, a quadrans is a Roman coin equal in value to a quarter of an as, which was a common copper coin. A farthing was and is a quarter of a penny. The King James translation (c. 1610) of “farthing” might best be described as literally correct (the words “quadrans” and “farthing” both literally mean “quarter”) but out of context. The English penny was silver, not copper, at the time of King James, and it would remain silver until the 18th century. In a comparison between Roman and 17th century English coinage, a penny would better correspond to the Roman denarius; indeed, the abbreviation ‘d’, used until 1970 for values expressed in pence, derives directly from denarius. An early 17th century English farthing would therefore be analogous to a Roman sestertius, 16 times the value of a quadrans.

How much were the widow’s two coins actually worth? The denarius was a day’s wage in the first century, and a quadrans was 1/64th of that. As best I can determine, the purchasing power of the two coins would have been about 50 cents by today’s standards. Certainly a small amount, but not the trivial sum implied by some of the translations.

Widow’s mites, although very old, are quite common today, generally costing only a few dollars. The piece pictured is well worn, but probably better centered than most. The term “Widow’s Mite” itself actually dates from the 17th century; from a numismatic standpoint, a widow’s mite would be known as a Lepton, a term that survives to this day to refer to the smallest denomination Greek coin.

WASHINGTON – The United States Mint is pleased to announce that it will issue 2010 American Eagle Gold Proof Coins on October 7, 2010, at noon Eastern Time (ET).  Available coin options and their mintages are as follows:

Pricing for the coins will be based on the United States Mint’s pricing structure for precious metals products.  For current pricing information, visit http://usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?flash=yes&action=goldplat  

Orders will be accepted at the United States Mint’s Web site, http://www.usmint.gov/catalog, at the toll-free number, 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468), and at various United States Mint sales centers (when available).  Hearing- and speech-impaired customers may order by calling 1-888-321-MINT (6468).  A shipping and handling fee of $4.95 per order will be added to all domestic orders.  There is no order limit.

The American Eagle Gold Proof Coins are struck in 22-karat gold.  The coins’ obverse (heads side) features Augustus Saint-Gaudens’ rendition of Liberty holding a torch in her right hand and an olive branch in her left.  The coins’ reverse (tails side), designed by sculptor Miley Busiek, features an image of a male eagle carrying an olive branch, flying above a nest containing a female eagle and her hatchlings. 

American Eagle Gold Proof Coins are struck multiple times for a frosted cameo image specially made for collectors.  Each coin is sealed in a protective capsule and mounted in a handsome, satin-lined velvet presentation case.  A Certificate of Authenticity signed by the United States Mint Director is included.

The United States Mint, created by Congress in 1792, is the Nation’s sole manufacturer of legal tender coinage.  Its primary mission is to produce an adequate volume of circulating coinage for the Nation to conduct its trade and commerce.  The United States Mint also produces proof, uncirculated and commemorative coins; Congressional Gold Medals; and silver, gold and platinum bullion coins.

Note: To ensure that all members of the public have fair and equal access to United States Mint products, orders placed prior to the official on-sale date and time of October 7, 2010, noon ET shall not be deemed accepted by the United States Mint and will not be honored.  For more information, please review the United States Mint’s Frequently Asked Questions, Answer ID #175.

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To be perfectly frank, I hate coin show reports. I hate to write them. I hate to read them. I don’t care what restaurants a dealer went to and what they ate and I don’t really care that Dealer X spent this much money on those coins at the show. That said, I also know that the ANA is the show that everyone who didn’t attend wants to know about. So, with these people in mind, I thought I’d share a few random observations about the ANA. 

On a scale of 1-10, I’d rate this show as a solid 6; possibly a 7. Overall, I’d say a was a tiny bit disappointed. I was expecting the show to be an 8 or a 9 because of the fact that it was the first ANA in Boston since 1982 and the fact that Boston is within a few hours of huge numbers of serious collectors. 

I go to coin shows primarily to buy and from a buying standpoint I was reasonably pleased. I bought some great coins. These include an 1854-O double eagle in PCGS AU55, the Garrett specimen of the 1808 quarter eagle (graded AU53 by PCGS) and over fifty crusty original 19th century gold pieces, most of which have already found their way onto my website. I would have liked to buy more buy, hey, that’s what I say at every show; even when I’m wondering how I’m going to sell all the great coins I just bought. And, yes, this paragraph is self-promotion. 

Attendance seemed good and the mood among dealers and collectors seemed upbeat and positive. I didn’t have any little old ladies walk up to my table with a New England shilling in a cigar box ( a fella can dream, can’t he?) but I was fairly pleased at the number of fresh coins that I was able to purchase on the floor. 

I participated in three auctions. The Stack’s sale contained an interesting fresh deal of Liberty Head eagles and prices were amazing (more on this in a future blog). The Bowers and Merena sale was reasonably strong but prices were mainly reflective on the quality of the coins. In other words, nice coins brought good prices while schlock sold cheaply if at all. The Heritage sale was strong although prices didn’t seem as off the charts as in years past. With the exception of the eagles in the Stack’s sale the coins brought basically what they were worth. That sounds trite but, in past ANA sales, many coins brought alot (stress alot) more than they were worth. Alot. 

In the area of rare gold, I noticed some definite market trends. Early date (i.e., pre-1834) gold was almost non-existent. Even the low end, overpriced stragglers that had been overhanging the market seemed to have disappeared. I can’t remember an ANA at which I saw fewer early gold coins nor a major show that I purchased fewer. 

There was extremely strong demand for Type One double eagles. The coins that nearly everyone seemed to want were common and somewhat better dates in AU50 and up, especially in the $2,000-7,500 price range. Demand was also strong for interesting Type Ones in the $10,000-20,000 range. Its hard to say what demand was like for expensive, really great Type Ones as there were almost none to be seen at the show. 

Branch mint gold also was in demand. I bought and sold a few interesting pieces of Dahlonega at the show and had quite a few people come to my table with specific wants. I searched through dozens of dealers’ inventories in a Quest for Crust and was unable to find more than a handful of truly DWN-worthy coins. 

Another area that suddenly seems strong is Carson City double eagles. I sold a number of interesting CC Twenties and was pleased at the prices thedy bought. I tried to buy an amazing 1872-CC in NGC MS62+ that was far and away the finest known for the date but was outbid despite figuring it for nearly six figures. Congratulations to whoever purchased this coin; it was sensational. 

Off the subject of coins for a second. I hadn’t been to Boston in about a decade and it was great to return. What a fantastic city. Great places to shop, small and compact with wonderful walking, fantastic architecture; my kind of place. I was able to leave the show early one day and went to the Gardner Museum. The Rembrandt self-portrait and the two Botticellis were breathtaking, to say the least. 

So, another ANA show has come and gone. After nearly 30 years of ANA’s, I don’t feel the excitement that I used to but this is clearlt THE show of the year and the 2010 edition was memorable. 

Related posts:

1. Some Random Observations About the 2010 FUN Show
2. THE BOSTON ANA SHOW – Market Report by Legend Numismatics
3. Pre-FUN Observations
4. Numismatic Theatre Schedule Set for ANA Coin Show in Boston
5. An Example of Yap Island Stone Money to be Auctioned During ANA’s Boston Coin Show
6. Eliasberg Gold Results and Observations from St. Louis
7. Rare Coin Market Report: The June 2010 Long Beach Show
8. CoinFest Show Debuts – Show Report from Legend Numismatics
9. PCGS at Boston ANA: On-Site Grading, Award-Winning Proof Copper on Display
10. Classic Coin to Display Two Ultra Rare Double Eagles in Boston Valued at $18 Million