The Coin Analyst: 2011 World Coins of the Year

By Louis Golino on January 11, 2012 11:59 AM

 

 

Announcement of the People’s Bank of China

 

 

〔2011〕No.27

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The People’s Bank of China is to issue a set of 2012 Chinese Panda gold and silver commemorative coins on November 30, 2011. The set consists of 10 coins, including 7 gold coins and 3 silver coins, all of which are the legal tender of the People’s Republic of China.

 

 

I. Design of the coins

 

 

The gold and silver coins bear the common obverse of the Hall of Prayer for Good Harvests (The Temple of Heaven), the title of the People’s Republic of China and the year date; the common reverse of the coins depicts a mother panda and her baby and the face value.

 

 

II. Specifications and mintage of the coins

 

 

i. 1/20 oz round gold coin is bullion in quality, 14 mm in diameter,20 Yuan in face value, 99.9％ in fineness and contains 1/20 troy ounce of pure gold. The maximal mintage is 800,000 pieces.

 

 

ii.1/10 oz round gold coin is bullion in quality, 18 mm in diameter, 50 Yuan in face value, 99.9% in fineness and contains 1/10 troy ounce of pure gold. The maximal mintage is 800,000 pieces.

 

 

iii.1/4 oz round gold coin is bullion in quality, 22 mm in diameter, 100 Yuan in face value, 99.9% in fineness and contains 1/4 troy ounce of pure gold. The maximal mintage is 600,000 pieces.

iv. 1/2 oz round gold coin is bullion in quality, 27 mm in diameter, 200 Yuan in face value, 99.9%in fineness and contains 1/2 troy ounce of pure gold. The maximal mintage is 600,000 pieces.

 

 

v. 1 oz round gold coin is bullion in quality, 32 mm in diameter, 500 Yuan in face value, 99.9% in fineness and contains 1 troy ounce of pure gold. The maximal mintage is 600,000 pieces.

 

 

vi. 5 oz round gold coin is proof in quality, 60 mm in diameter, 2000 Yuan in face value, 99.9% in fineness and contains 5 troy ounces of pure gold. The maximal mintage is 5000 pieces.

vii. 1 kg round gold coin is proof in quality, 90 mm in diameter, 10000 Yuan in diameter, 99.9% in fineness and contains 1 kg of pure gold. The maximal mintage is 500 pieces.

 

 

viii. 1 oz round silver coin is bullion in quality, 40 mm in diameter, 10 Yuan in face value, 99.9% in fineness and contains 1 troy ounce of pure silver. The maximal mintage is 8,000,000 pieces.

ix. 5 oz round silver coin is proof in quality, 70 mm in diameter, 50 Yuan in face value, 99.9% in fineness and contains 5 troy ounces of pure silver. The maximal mintage is 50,000 pieces.

x. 1 kg round silver coin is proof in quality, 100 mm in diameter, 300 Yuan in face value, 99.9% in fineness and contains 1kg of pure silver. The maximal mintage is 20,000 pieces.

III. The series of coins are respectively minted by Shenzhen Guobao Mint Co., Ltd, Shenyang Mint Co., Ltd and Shanghai Mint Co., Ltd, and solely distributed by China Gold Coin Incorporation.

 

 

 

The People’s Bank of China

 

 

November 14, 2011

 

 

 

1/20oz gold coin

 

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
20 Yuan	gold	99.9%	bullion	1/20oz	round	14mm	800000 pcs

 

1/10oz gold coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
50 Yuan	gold	99.9%	bullion	1/10oz	round	18mm	800000 pcs

1/4oz gold coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
100 Yuan	gold	99.9%	bullion	1/4oz	round	22mm	600000 pcs

1/2oz gold coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
200 Yuan	gold	99.9%	bullion	1/2oz	round	27mm	600000 pcs

1oz gold coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
500 Yuan	gold	99.9%	bullion	1oz	round	32mm	600000 pcs

5oz gold coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
2000 Yuan	gold	99.9%	proof	5oz	round	60mm	6000 pcs

1kg gold coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
10000 Yuan	gold	99.9%	proof	1kg	round	90mm	500 pcs

1oz silver coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
10 Yuan	silver	99.9%	bullion	1oz	round	40mm	80000000 pcs

5oz silver coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
50 Yuan	silver	99.9%	proof	5oz	round	70mm	50000 pcs

1kg silver coin

Face value	Metal	Fineness	Quality	weight	Shape	Diameter	Mintage
300 Yuan	silver	99.9%	proof	1kg	round	100mm	20000 pcs

The Coin Analyst: China’s Gold Policy and Alleged U.S. Government Suppression of Gold Prices

By Louis Golino on September 7, 2011 12:10 AM

Panda Chosen For Its ‘Rock Star’ Status

By Peter Anthony, World Coin News June 20, 2011

This article was originally printed in World Coin News.
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“Whether a cat is black or white makes no difference. As long as it catches mice, it is a good cat.” While pandas don’t catch mice, the Chinese still consider them a kind of cat. The word “panda” translates to “bear cat” and collectors and dealers often refer to pandas as cats. So, speaking of felines, why do bear cats appear on the most famous series of coins minted by China? Interestingly, the adage about black cats and white cats is part of the answer.

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After the Communist Party took control of China 62 years ago, it made every effort to root out any trace of capitalist leanings in the country. The circulating coins of that era (more about them another time) reflect the low level of economic activity. Precious metal coins for collectors were out of the question. It wasn’t until the country’s supreme leader Mao ZeDung was an old man that the first tentative steps to open the economy were taken.

One of the politicians who pushed for modernization was a clever fellow named Deng Xiaoping. He had suffered quite a bit under Maoism but each time managed to rise toward the top again. Three years after Mao died, Deng Xiaoping became China’s leader. “As long as it catches mice it is a good cat,” was Deng’s way of saying that China was open to whatever policies were needed, including capitalism, to get the country growing again. Given the opportunity, the country’s economy was soon off like a rocket and the Chinese Mint with it. The mint quickly entered the profitable field of collector coins.

The first numismatic fruit of the new freedom arrived in 1979: a coin celebrating the UNICEF Year of the Child. It was an interesting choice of subject with hints of politics as well as commerce to it. On the one hand the coin is a charming tribute to childhood. On the other, its subject reflected China’s desire to engage the outside world and to be part of international organizations, the most important of which was the World Trade Organization. Demonstrating its support for the UN and UNICEF was one small step on the road to full WTO membership.

In 1982 the mint released a series of gold coins with purely commercial intentions: the Panda. Why pandas? After all, their place in Chinese culture and lore is minor. Why not use an important symbol like a dragon instead? Pandas were given the nod because the coins were meant to attract foreign buyers, and they are the rock stars of the animal world.

How popular are pandas? According to surveys, the panda is the world’s most beloved animal, and there are product endorsements to prove it. There is a Panda car, a Panda Bank, Panda pots and pans, a chain of Panda restaurants, a Panda telecommunications company, a Panda TV show, a chain of Panda kitchen and bath stores, Panda security software, Panda florists, Panda cabinets, a type of fiber optic (Panda=polarization-maintaining and absorption-reducing), countless panda toys, panda movies and sequels, plus the panda is the symbol of the World Wildlife Federation. Even the latest update to Google’s search engine is called Panda.

By the way, I can’t resist adding that Panda cars are Italian, not Chinese. The Italians snagged the name first. When a Chinese car company tried to market a Panda car they were sued by Fiat and had to quit selling them outside of China. Luckily for the mint, no one had thought to trademark pandas on coins before.

So when China decided to develop a new export coin series, the ever-popular bear cat was a natural subject choice. The 1982 gold Pandas were minted in 1-ounce, 1/2-ounce, 1/4-ounce and 1/10-ounce sizes. The Chinese Mint initially targeted Pandas to jewelry buyers and gold investors, so that’s what their earliest brochures focused on.

Surprise! The image of a seated Panda peacefully munching on bamboo shoots enchanted coin collectors and the entire supply was quickly gobbled up. Prices leapt to $4,000 for a coin with just $300-$400 of gold in it. The bear cat was out of the bag and the rest is history.

Last month I pointed out that Pandas often make the switch from bullion coins to numismatic items when the original supply from the Mint runs out. What difference does that make? Here’s an example: recently, while the price of silver dropped from $49 an ounce to $35 an ounce, the price of a 2009 1-ounce silver Panda went up from $90 to $100.

The 2010 silver Pandas may be inching toward numismatic status, too. They now sell for a 5 percent premium over the 2011 coins and are a year ahead of the 2011 on the curve. The 2010’s mintage is less than the 2011’s, yet it still sells at prices relatively close to its silver content. This one looks like another attractive Panda for silver fans.

China Promotes Gold Ownership

By Patrick A. Heller August 06, 2010

Over the past several years, the government in China has set up infrastructure to enable the nation’s citizens to purchase physical gold. It has also periodically issued pronouncements urging the public to buy gold. During this time, the Chinese government has been a stronger advocate of the private ownership of gold than any other country. 

This effort to increase domestic demand is above and beyond the huge amounts of gold that China’s central bank has added to its reserves since 2003.

One thing you have to keep in mind about the potential demand for gold in China is that there are not the social (government) safety nets as there are in the United States.  As a result, the Chinese save more than 50 percent of their income as “insurance.” Compared to the typical American, the average Chinese citizen has a huge amount of funds available to allocate to purchasing gold.

There have been significant problems with Chinese citizens being able to acquire physical gold. There are simply too few outlets carrying insufficient inventory.  From 2007 to 2009, private physical gold demand in China quadrupled from almost 580,000 ounces to more than 2.3 million ounces. I have heard multiple stories of people having to wait in line at gold stores for as long as four hours in order to make a purchase.

On Aug. 3, the People’s Bank of China announced several developments to broaden access to gold for private citizens and increase competition in the markets.

According to a statement posted on the PBOC website, more commercial banks will be authorized to import and export physical gold.  In addition, the banks will be encouraged to offer yuan-denominated gold derivatives, which would provide paper evidence of the ownership of some of the rights of owning physical gold.

The PBOC also promised to improve policies with respect to the gold market.  For instance, it will improve policies to speed development of foreign exchange activities. Until recently, it was technically illegal to take yuan in or out of China, though I have talked with a number of people who have traveled there who said that the customs people never asked about transporting Chinese money.

The central bank has instructed commercial banks to provide better services in loaning funds to domestic gold companies looking to establish foreign branches.  In turn, the PBOC will further open the Chinese market to foreigners who wish to trade gold there.

The PBOC also said it was considering allowing foreign suppliers to provide physical gold directly to the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

The end result of these changes is that there will be more physical gold available for sale and more outlets where people can go to purchase the yellow metal.

The bank further stated that it would strengthen supervision of the gold market to ensure balanced development (with the definition of balanced development left up to the Chinese government).

China is already the world’s largest gold producing nation, but domestic physical gold demand is much higher than domestic supplies.  As years pass, expect gold imports into China to continue to grow.

Another item:

Last Friday, the jobs and unemployment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as so poor that, for only about the third time in the past 50+ months, gold and silver prices rose at the time the report was issued.

That the prices of gold and silver were “allowed” to rise this particular time is one more sign that the U.S. government may be running out of ammunition to use to continue to suppress prices.

As I have explained before, one way the U.S. government overstates employment has been with the use of a birth/death adjustment. After counting the changes in jobs, the BLS then pads the number of employed workers simply because the population of the U.S. has increased.  Even though the statisticians at the BLS acknowledge that this double counts new jobs, they still do it. Once a year, most recently in the January 2010 report, there is a major correction in the adjustment to undo the error that has crept in over the past year through applying the birth/death adjustment.

In the previous three months, there were huge numbers of fictitious jobs added through use of the birth/death model (188,000 for April, 215,000 for May and 147,000 for June) which helped make it possible to report that the unemployment rate was stable instead of deteriorating.  There were so many Census Bureau positions eliminated in July, against other anemic employment data from the private sector and other government sectors, that I suspect that the BLS didn’t want to “waste” another large fudging of the reports. Consequently, the July birth/death model in total only added 6,000 jobs.  This was the lowest adjustment since July 2009, other than the annual correction in January 2010.

Of course, as bad as the July unemployment numbers were, be prepared for revisions later that could make the results even worse. Along with the release of the July numbers were revisions for May and June that showed a further net decrease in employment of 35,000 compared to the original reports that were issued.

As more bad financial news gets reported, that will only stimulate further demand for gold and silver.
Patrick A. Heller owns Liberty Coin Service and Premier Coins & Collectibles (www.premier-coins.com) in Lansing, Mich., and writes “Liberty’s Outlook,” a monthly newsletter on rare coins and precious metals subjects. Past newsletter issues can be viewed at www.libertycoinservice.com.  Other written commentaries are available at Coin Update (www.coinupdate.com). Heller’s radio program, “Things You ‘Know’ That Just Aren’t So, And Important News You Need To Know” is broadcast every Wednesday morning about 8:45-9 a.m. on 1320-AM WILS (which streams live at www.1320wils.com, where audio and text archives are also available).

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	Will Chinese Yuan outperform US dollar?
	By Clif Droke It’s the world’s biggest and fastest-growing economic powerhouse, the subject of countless daily discussions and conjectures in the news media and an endless source of controversy, fear and confusion among investors, businessmen, politicians, bankers and bureaucrats. For those who follow the global economic outlook, it’s probably the single-most important focus in trying to solve the global financial crisis. And answers to the questions surrounding this country’s near-term future will undoubtedly have a momentous impact on your own financial future. It’s also the subject of our commentary today: The China outlook. If you’re like me, you’ve followed the China musings of many analysts and commentators over the years and you’ve probably been perplexed at how there can be so much disparity among what these analysts are claiming about China’s financial and economic outlook. It would seem that the China observers are evenly divided into two camps: those embracing a bullish “the sky is the limit” outlook and those who say that China is merely a “paper tiger” just waiting to burn. Their statements are often diametrically opposed on the issues under discussion, leading one to ask, “How can so many China observers be so completely at odds with each other over a country so vast and important to the global economy?” Part of this reason, one can easily surmise, is due to the proverbial “iron curtain” that surrounds Chinese media and internal communications. China is still ruled by a Communist government and its rulers are known for having an almost paranoid desire to control internal and external communications among its people. It’s sometimes difficult for those living in China to always get the scoop on what’s going on within the country, let alone those living outside it. Another reason for the divergence of opinions regarding China’s economic outlook is due to the country’s vast size. Back in the 1990s, you couldn’t attend a business meeting or investment conference without hearing some enthusiast talk about the boundless economic possibilities for U.S. businesses in the years ahead based on the soon-to-be-tapped consumer market in China. “A billion new potential customers” was an oft-repeated mantra among businessmen of those days in reference to China. I suspect this ingrained bullish belief in China’s economic possibilities has left a lingering (and unreasonable) pro-China bias among American investors ever since. Due to these factors and others, it’s hard separating the wheat from the chaff when it comes to analyzing China’s economic outlook. Will China continue its stellar rates of industrial production of recent years or will the lingering impact of the global credit crisis dampen its economy? Will the yuan someday eclipse the dollar as the most dominant currency or not? Will China surpass the U.S. as the world’s leading global superpower or won’t it? Basing our economic arguments for or against China based on fundamental data (which can admittedly be deceiving) and relying on our limited capacity for sorting through the many complex variables involved would make a decisive answer on the China question virtually impossible to attain. Yet there is one source of knowledge that we can go to that will give us a surprisingly accurate answer as it concerns the interim economic and financial outlook for China. That source is none other than the stock market, the ultimate barometer of business conditions. There seems to be an emerging consensus among investors that China is “decoupling” from the West and has developing its own domestic markets to the point where it needs no longer to rely on export growth to the U.S. for its economy strength. As debatable as this prospect is (and there are valid arguments on both sides), our main focus is on the financial outlook for China. Two things stand out. The first is that the iShares China 25 Index Fund (FXI), our proxy for the China stock market, has been notably lagging the recovery in the U.S. broad market S&P 500 index in the past few months. While the U.S. stock market has recently made an 18-month recovery high, shares of Chinese companies as measured by FXI are still below their previous high from November 2009. Another observation is that the China stock internal momentum indicator series (CHINAMO) is showing far less internal strength than it did in 2009. Indeed, the dominant interim momentum indicators for the China stocks have been rolling over of late and the short-term indicators have been in decline for some time. This is reminiscent of what the long-term NYSE hi-lo momentum index looked like in 2007 heading into the credit crisis. Beyond the possibility of a short-term rally, the longer-term momentum structure for Chinese stocks is troubling. Unless it shows substantial improvement in the weeks immediately ahead, this troubling internal pattern could set the stage for bigger financial troubles ahead for China. These indicators are a reflection of the incremental demand for the leading U.S.-listed China stocks; and, with demand clearly slowing and even turning downward, it doesn’t bode well for China’s stock market outlook, which, in turn, is a “heads up” for that country’s economic outlook. There has been growing talk of an unsustainable building boom taking place across major Chinese cities. Indeed, many mainstream financial publications have taken to using the word “bubble” to describe what is happening in China’s real estate sector. As financial analyst Dr. David Eifrig has recently observed, “The Chinese built infrastructure, real estate, factories, and even stockpiled commodities as if the world would grow to the sky. Throw an Olympics in the middle of the global boom, and you have a tremendous bubble.” Dr. Eifrig’s conclusion is a sobering one: “Now that the borrowing of cheap money has ended, China has no more buyers. As borrowers default and declining asset values collapse balance sheets of corporations and consumers in Europe, the U.S., and Japan, demand has dried up. The money China gets from the world’s profligate spending has ended. . .” Gold investors would do well to take note in the latest development in China as well. What’s interesting to note is that not only has there been a decoupling from the U.S. stock market, but the China stock market has been closely correlated to movements in the price of gold, especially in the last several months. Comparing the FXI to the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), a proxy for the gold price, the similar trajectories can be easily seen. China’s appetite for gold is well known and until its near-term financial condition improves, it’s likely that the gold price will move more or less in harmony with China’s stock market, as has been the case in recent months. Another expert who believes China’s free ride at the expense of America’s thirst for foreign imports has ended is the Grameen Foundation. One factor that has helped create a reversal of China’s longstanding dominance in the U.S. as a net exporter is the continued weakness of the dollar. The weak dollar has helped to bolster America’s trade balance at the expense of China. In an article by the Grameen Foundation it was observed, “The sliding dollar has already begun swelling the total new manufacturing orders.” Grameen asks rhetorically, “Will manufacturing jobs shipped overseas due to cheap labor come back to the United States due to the current financial crisis?” Grameen goes on to point out that a large number of Chinese factories are closed there due to the scaled back spending by American consumers. Grameen asks further, “Now what effect does this have in bringing manufacturing back to the United States?” Grameen continues: “The primary reason manufacturers move overseas is purely cost savings. Companies do not move to China for any reasons other than cheap labor. So cheap labor drove manufacturing companies overseas. But America’s cost structure was not rising—it was falling. Meanwhile, China’s costs were rising fast. All of this could bring a massive readjustment in currency values. What would that mean? First, a reduction in the value of the USD. What would a weak dollar really do? A low value dollar, along with a rising yuan (China’s currency) could make any manufacturing overseas commercial unfeasible. That is, the American companies would see no reason to set up factories in China to export to the U.S.” All of this leads us to ask, if in fact U.S. firms begin a mass exodus out of China and back to the homeland, and if current U.S. export and consumption trends continue, what impact will all of this have on U.S.-China relations? Or more to the point of this analysis, how will China’s economy withstand the shock this would almost certainly create? Already, according to Grameen and other sources, there are telltale signs that China is heading down the same primrose path that was trod by America not many years ago—the path that leads to economic perdition. Grameen explains: “The latest data from Red China [shows] State-owned banks have been throwing cash at any communist party member who wants cash to buy. It is all part of a plan to replace consumer sales to Americans. The trouble is that this fast spread of easy money has already begun producing a giant expansion of bad debts in China.” Another seasoned China observer, Adrian Van Eck, in a recent edition of the Money Forecast Letter, observed: “But there is one nation that is riding a bubble right now and that nation is the People’s Republic of China. Henry Kissinger once told President Nixon that the Chinese people are the smartest on Earth. Yet there is a defect in their official national character that has brought them from very high levels of achievement to very low levels of failure a dozen times over the past 4,000 years. They would build dynasties and conquer nations on all sides, forcing these captive people to pay tribute to the Chinese Imperial Court. “But then pride turned to arrogance and arrogance caused them to make mistakes—big mistakes and a lot of them . . . Each time that one of their dozen rich dynasties fell, China endured long periods of awful poverty. I suspect that will happen again. . .The Chinese State Bank is spreading billions of dollars in loans around to encourage wild consumer spending by communist party members. . .all to replace lost sales resulting from the sharp drop off in American consumer products important from China. China’s money has been pushed up in value 20% since Bernanke took over the Fed. Greenspan allowed them to cut the value of their Yuan by a lot (the higher the number per dollar the cheaper the yuan) and then freeze it.” .Van Eck concluded, “Because of strong domestic inflation, China can no longer afford the kind of cheap prices they have offered [in the past]. The game is about over for them. And at the same time I expect manufacturing plants to begin coming back to America.” Is China’s economy setting up for its first major debacle since its aggressive growth spurt began? If so, it will almost certainly be preceded by a pronounced decline in China share prices, which appears to be already underway. To that end, we’ll be focusing our attention closely on the Shanghai Composite stock index as well as our favorite proxy for U.S. listed China shares, the China 25 Index Fund (FXI). The next question that logically follows this is, “If China implodes, what will happen to the U.S. economy?” There are a couple of cyclical considerations that can be addressed in this regard. The first is that while the famous 4-year “business cycle” is scheduled to bottom later this year, around late September/early October, once the cyclical pressure from this lifts the U.S. financial market should be in a position to resume its leadership position among the major countries, including China. If we assume China is well into a decline by that time, we can project a scenario in which the U.S. shrugs off this external divergence, much as it did when Japan’s stock market and economy collapsed in 1990. That leaves the last of the long-term yearly cycles, the 6-year cycle, to push the U.S. stock market into one final growth spurt into 2011 before it peaks next year. It would be easy, and perhaps tempting, to come to the conclusion that “as goes China, so goes the U.S.” Yet in spite of attempts of connecting both economies in recent years, the internal dynamics of both countries are quite pronounced and dissimilar. The U.S. still has recovery potential and has already proven its resilience in the wake of an unparalleled credit disaster. It’s still too early to count the United States out completely, and with the yearly cycles still favorable for the U.S. business outlook for at least one more year, the guess here is that the U.S. will trump China in 2010–2011 as the most favored destination for investment capital. Cycles Over the years, I’ve been asked by many readers what I consider to be the best books on stock market cycles that I can recommend. While there are many excellent works out there on the subject of technical and fundamental analysis, chart reading, etc., precious few have addressed the subject of market cycles. Of the relatively few books on cycles that are available, most don’t even merit mentioning. I’ve read only one book in the genre that I can recommend—The K Wave by David Knox Barker—but even that one doesn’t deal directly with stock market cycles but instead with the economic long wave. I’m pleased to announce, however, that after nearly 10 years of research and one year of writing, I’ve completed a book on the subject that I believe will meet the critical demands of most cycle students. By arrangement with: www.theaureport.com

Will China Buy More Gold?

By Patrick A. Heller March 16, 2010

Other News & Articles

• Will China Buy More Gold?
• Demand at Shows Moves Up
• France Continues to Wow With 2010 Collection

As China’s National People’s Congress draws to a conclusion this week, one of the subjects to resolve is adopting a plan for the ascendancy of China’s renminbi yuan currency.

At the beginning of the Congress, it was announced that China’s government will be targeting an annual economic growth rate of 8 percent, the rate used for planning since 2004. The Chinese government has taken the position that this growth rate will create sufficient jobs to prevent social unrest in the country.

China already has $2.7 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, the world’s largest hoard. Should economic growth continue, so will the reserves.

A key question for Chinese leaders is whether to allow the yuan to appreciate against other currencies. Doing so would help restructure their domestic economy and rebalance the global economy with a shift towards greater importance for the yuan. It is not out of the question that the Chinese economy may one day displace the United States as the world’s largest, with the yuan bumping the dollar as the major currency held by other central banks.

However, if the yuan appreciates against the U.S. dollar, this will cause the value of the U.S. dollar denominated reserves held by China’s central bank to decline when expressed in terms of yuan. China already owns nearly $1 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities and maybe another trillion in other U.S. dollar-denominated debt. As you can see, it is important for China to establish a policy to try to protect its existing reserves while accommodating the emergence of the yuan as an international currency.

Several Chinese economists and minor officials have stated that China needs substantially greater gold reserves to smooth the transition of the yuan to global pre-eminence.

However, China’s government, as a rule, rarely reveals its policies directly. Typically, such announcements are gleaned from the statements made by minor officials, former officials, or researchers. In such statements, it is typical for the person to say an issue is under study. When you hear the Chinese referring to doing a study, it typically means that the decision has been made and, frequently, the government is already acting on its decision.

A perfect example of that process came to light last spring. The Chinese central bank disclosed that it had acquired a significant quantity of gold reserves from 2003 through 2009, but did not change their reported “actual” central bank gold reserve until then. I had alerted my readers in 2003 that China’s central bank was quietly adding gold reserves, but it took another six years for the information to be officially confirmed. A year ago, I said it was likely that China had already accumulated higher reserves than they then acknowledged.

In 2008, statements attributed to Ji Xiaonan, an official of the Chinese State Council’s state assets commission, said the nation was considering raising its gold reserves from 600 metric tons (19.3 million ounces as officially acknowledged at the time) to 4,600 metric tons (148 million ounces) as a way to mitigate foreign exchange risk. He further said, “China’s gold reserves should reach 6,000 tons (192 million ounces) in the next three to five years and perhaps 10,000 (metric) tons (321 million ounces) in eight to ten years.”

The revelation a year ago that China’s reserves were up to 1,054 tons (34 million ounces) proves that China is adding gold to its reserves. The question is how much and how fast.

An unidentified senior official of the People’s Bank of China stated, “China should formulate a long-term plan and constantly and secretly increase its gold holdings.”

Xia Bin, director of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese State Council, urged China to continue long-term buying of gold reserves. Higher gold reserves will increase the attractiveness of the yuan as an international reserve currency and stabilize the country’s economic development.

Xia and other Chinese economists also recommended that the Chinese government allow private enterprises to purchase gold on the international market.

Theoretically, the US government’s gold reserves are just over 261 million ounces. If China’s central bank were to continue to acquire 20-40 million ounces of gold per year until it surpassed the U.S. government’s gold holdings, this would absorb 25-50 percent of annual worldwide gold production for the next several years. Add to that the gold being bought by other central banks and that leaves little gold available for private sector manufacturing and investment purposes. In such circumstances, the price of gold would rise several times from current levels.

Other News

On Thursday, March 25, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold hearings on possibly setting trading limits on the U.S. gold and silver commodity markets. Bill Murphy, the chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, Inc., has accepted an invitation to testify at these hearings.

Two days later, on March 27, Bill will be speaking at the American Numismatic Association’s National Money Show in Fort Worth, Texas. His speech is titled, “Why Gold is Going to $3,000-$5,000 per Ounce.” His lecture will be held in Room 103A at the Fort Worth Convention Center, 1201 Houston Street at 1 p.m. For those coming only for this presentation, there will be no admission charge. Non-ANA members wishing to enter the bourse floor to visit hundreds of coin dealers and exhibits will be charged $6 for that purpose (ANA members get in free).

Patrick A. Heller owns Liberty Coin Service in Lansing, Mich., and writes “Liberty’s Outlook,” the company’s monthly newsletter on rare coins and precious metals subjects. Past newsletter issues can be viewed at http://www.libertycoinservice.com. Other commentaries are available at Coin Update (www.coinupdate.com) and Financial Sense University (www.financialsense.com). His periodic radio interviews can be heard on the Korelin Economic Report at http://www.kereport.com.

Coins Proclaim Year of the Tiger

By Kerry Rodgers, World Coin News January 14, 2010

Other News & Articles

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• Famous Nickel Gets $3.7 Million

It’s that time of the year again, the lunar new year, in fact. On Feb. 14 of solar year 2010 the new lunar year will dawn. It is a Year of the Tiger, the third aspect of the 12-year lunar cycle. For those who really need to know, it is the 27th year of the 79th 60-year zodiacal lunar cycle. And, if you insist on getting picky, it is a metal tiger or G?ngyín year.

Over the last couple of decades collecting lunar zodiacal coin issues has become a major sub-field of numismatics, and the world’s mints have had no intention of upsetting the punters this time around. Issues galore have been appearing over the past eight months.

Of course, for the Chinese the main significance of the coins is in giving – and receiving – them as gifts known as lai see, particularly the giving by adults to children.

The dosh commonly arrives in red envelopes that symbolize good fortune. Ideally the total amount of lai see cash involves numerous auspicious eights, and today smart mints package their lunar coins in red and/or involve “8” in one way or another, often either in the presentation or in the coin mintages.

The amount of money tells a recipient the depth of the donor’s feelings. Of course, these days folding money is the sole acceptable currency for teens. However, I am assured that a $10 coin will cut the mustard among most junior relatives, and I would except that any of the gold or silver coins described here would prove a most suitable lai see gift for those with a Tiger in their life.

This time around, the happy coincidence of the Lunar New Year with the Western world’s Valentine should represent a substantial money-saving bonus for some of us.

The Tigers Among Us

The Tiger got the bronze medal in the Great Race organized by the August Personage of Jade to determine the order of the lunar zodiac. He arrived at the finish line exhausted, panting out his pardons. He had found it difficult to cross the heavenly river. Strong currents kept pushing him downstream. It was only the power of his muscles that enabled him to reach the furthest shore in time for him to take his place as the third animal of the zodiacal cycle – after the Rat and the Ox.

The Tiger has come to be revered in many Asian societies. He is regarded as a mythical god-like being, a symbol of power and good fortune who protects people from evil, especially little children. His approximate Western counterpart is Aquarius.

The Tigers of our world score high in the popularity stakes. They are lively and engaging people. On their good days they come across as powerful, passionate and stimulating. They are intelligent, thoughtful, alert and farsighted, with a strong sense of their own dignity. They have little value for power or money. Those close to them find them sincere, affectionate and sensitive, being both generous and displaying great sympathy.

In general they are totally open and honest about their feelings, but they also expect the same from you. Then again, Tigers can be somewhat unpredictable. Never try and second-guess a Tiger. They may appear laid back but can strike without warning – and their claws are sharp.

They are naturally suspicious and, at worst, can be extremely short-tempered. Far too often they come into conflict with their elders or authority figures. The upshot is that they can appear intolerant, stubborn, aggressive, impulsive, rebellious and selfish.

Despite these shortcomings, Tigers are natural leaders, capable of inspiring great respect. They have their fingers on the pulse and are good strategists. Yet part of the package is a pig-headedness that can make them difficult if inspirational bosses. Beware their hidden agendas. Oddly, Tigers have trouble making decisions. Too, too often they rush off half-cocked with some ill-conceived notion or make the appropriate choice far too late.

Importantly, Tigers are incorrigibly competitors. They cannot pass up a challenge. They display courage to the point of recklessness but can afford the luxury of doing so, having been born lucky. As such, whatever the outcome, their natural good fortune ensures they land on their feet ready to pursue life with energy. In particular, expect Metal Tigers to stand out in a crowd.

New Zealand Mint’s Charismatic Cats

The newest member of the lunar coin club, New Zealand Mint, beat all other contenders when it released details of its first lunar issue in July of solar year 2009.

Following on from last year’s highly successful Year of the Ox coin, the New Zealand Mint has produced a matching Year of the Tiger 40 mm, 1-ounce, .999 fine silver $2 for Niue. Mintage is just 20,000 with an issue date of November 2009.

The reverse design shows a selectively-gilded, traditional tiger scaling a hill, signifying the animal’s readiness to scale the heights in its on-going quest for personal improvement. The evergreen pine trees around the hill’s summit invoke longevity.

The Tiger coin comes in an identical packaging to last year: a Lucky Blessings Gold Ingot that resembles a traditional boat-shaped gold sycee, a symbol of prosperity. The Chinese characters at top, front and back offer felicitations for success, longevity and happiness. In short, “Live long and prosper.” The auspicious peonies denote wealth, distinction, happiness and peace; a pair of magpies conveys joy and good fortune.

And the mint has produced its third lunar silver $2 for Pitcairn Islands. Mintage details are the same as for Niue except the coin’s diameter is 40.7 mm. The colorized reverse design shows a proud adult tiger prowling the alpine snows – which is just a tad incongruous given Pitcairn’s subtropical clime.

If your local dealer cannot supply either coin, try www.nzmint.com.

Perth’s Purrfection

Perth Mint may not have been first cab off the rank in the lunar coin game this year, but once again this mint has produced a vast array of lunar coins, with its first issues in the third part of its Lunar Series II released last August. Along with proof and common-or-garden bullion issues, there are several of those extra-special items.

Check out Perth’s Web site for details: www.perthmint.com.au. If your local dealer can’t supply, that is the place to buy.

Proofs: The reverse of the .9999 fine gold proofs all show a magnificent tiger’s head full frontal, its eyes focused on something just above the viewer’s left shoulder. The image is accompanied by the Chinese character for tiger, the inscription “Year of the Tiger” and the Perth Mint’s “P” mintmark.

The coins include 3,000 1-ounce ($100), 5,000 1/4-ounce ($25) and 5,000 1/10-ounce ($15) coins plus 3,000 three-coin sets containing one of each denomination housed in a oval timber and metal presentation case. The diameters and thickness of the three coins are: $100, 38.80 mm and 2.50 mm; $25, 22.60 mm and 2.20 mm; and $15, 18.60 mm and 2.00 mm.

The reverse of the .999 fine silver frosted proofs depicts a tiger in repose, perhaps contemplating a recent satisfying meal or lazily eyeing a prospective fatted calf, along with the Chinese character for tiger and Perth’s mintmark.

These silver coins come as 5,000 1-ounce ($1) and 500 1-kilo ($30) coins. In addition 2-ounce ($2) and 1/2-ounce (50 cents) proofs are available solely within 1,000 three-coin sets that include the 1-ounce ($1) proof. The diameters and thickness of the four coins are: $30, 100.60 mm and 14.60 mm; $2, 55.60 mm and 3.60 mm; the $1, 45.60 mm and 2.60 mm; and 50 cents, 36.60 mm and 2.30 mm.

Lunar bullion: Perth’s .9999 fine gold YoT bullion is the 15th such lunar issue with coin denominations similar to earlier years: 1/20 ounce ($5), 1/10 ounce ($15), 1/4 ounce ($25), 1/2 ounce ($50), 1 ounce ($100), 2 ounce ($200), 10 ounce ($1,000), and 1 kilo ($3,000). This year the 10 kilo ($30,000) has returned. The design is as for the gold proofs, showing a tiger full frontal.

No mintage limits exist for the $3,000, $1,000, $200, $50, $25, $15 and $5 gold bullion coins but production will close at the end of 2010. In the case of the $100, mintage is limited to 30,000 and production will cease when the mintage is fully sold or at the end of the series, whichever comes first. A maximum of 100 $30,000 coins will be produced on a made-to-order basis.

For the .999 fine silver bullion it is the 12th year of issue. The reverse design is that of the tiger-in-repose. Issues are identical to last year: 1/2 ounce ($0.50), 1 ounce ($1), 2 ounce ($2), 5 ounce ($8), 10 ounce ($10), 1/2 kilo ($15), 1 kilo ($30) and 10 kilo ($300).

Mintage limits are similar to last year’s Year of the Ox issues. No mintage limit applies to the $30, $15, $10, $8, $2 and 50-cent coins. With the exception of the $30, production of these coins will close at the end of 2010. Production of the 1 kilo coin will cease at the end of the series. In the case of the $1 coin, a maximum of 300,000 will be struck with production ceasing when that mintage is fully sold or at the end of the series, whichever comes first. A maximum of 500 $300 coins will be produced on a made-to-order basis.

Perth’s transmogrifications: As in past years, the $1 (1-ounce) .999 fine silver coin comes in Perth’s popular colored and gilded versions.

The tiger-in-recline come gilded in 24 karat with 50,000 of these coins struck in specimen BU quality. A colored version has a mintage of 170,000 with just 3,800 available in Australia, as was the case in the past two years.

All four proof, gilded, colored and bullion versions of the tiger-in-recline are available as a single packaged set. Mintage is 1,500 sets.

And this year’s colorized $30 1-kilo .999 fine silver gemstone issue comes complete with a golden topaz for the tiger’s eye.

The obverse of all of Perth’s coins shows the Ian Rank-Broadley effigy of Queen Elizabeth II, the 2010 solar year-date, the monetary denomination and, where appropriate, the weight, composition and fineness of the precious metal.

RAM’s Terrific Tortoiseshells

For the Royal Australian Mint the Year of the Tiger brings the fourth issue of their regular lunar series designed by Vladimir Gottwald. However, unlike the last three issues, this year there are just two coins: a 17.53 mm, 1/10-ounce .9999 fine gold $10 proof with a mintage of 2,500; and a 25.00 mm, 9.00 g BU aluminum-bronze with an unlimited mintage. No lunar silver proof in this series will be available in solar year 2010. If your local dealer cannot supply, these coins can be sourced from the mint’s Web site: www.ramint.gov.au.

In addition, it is the RAM’s second year for its second lunar series struck specifically for the Asian market and designed by Shang Erji. Last year’s Ox coins proved a great success and are matched by corresponding proof Tiger issues. These include a 40 mm, 1-ounce .999 fine silver dollar with a mintage of 30,000, a 17.53 mm, 1/10-ounce .9999 fine gold $10 with a mintage of 10,000, and a similar 30 mm, 1/2-ounce gold $25 with a mintage of 3,800. The silver dollar can be bought on its own or paired in sets with either of the gold coins. The gold $10 and $25 come solely in the sets.

At the time of writing, supplies of these coins in Australia were available from Downies at www.downies.com.

China’s Marvelous Moggies

The People’s Bank of China released 15 different .999 fine gold and .999 fine silver coins in October to celebrate the upcoming G?ngyín year. These come in a variety of shapes and sizes. All are legal tender of the People’s Republic of China.

The reverse of 11 of the coins shows a crouching tiger backed by tiger mask along with the face value and “G?ngyín” in Chinese characters. Nine of the obverses show the national emblem of the PRC either enclosed in a wreath of lotus and fish or flanked by lotus and fish to denote the upcoming year as one of abundance.

Four of these coins are conventional circular proofs: a 40 mm, 1-ounce silver ¥10 with a mintage of 100,000; a 100 mm, 1-kilo silver ¥300 (mintage 3800); an 18 mm, 1/10-ounce gold ¥50 (mintage 80,000); a 180 mm, 10-kilo gold ¥100,000 whose mintage is just 18 pieces.

Three are plum-blossom-shaped proofs: a 40 mm, 1-ounce silver ¥10 with a 60,000 mintage; a 27 mm, 1/2-ounce gold ¥200 (mintage 8,000); a 100 mm, 1-kilo gold ¥10,000 (mintage 118). Spring blossom is a potent symbol of the New Year. In general it signifies good fortune, but traditionalists consider the blooming of a seemingly dead branch as symbolizing hope. For those looking for love, plum blossoms are where it’s at.

Two coins are rectangular: a 80 by 50 mm, 5-ounce silver ¥50 (mintage 1,888) and a 64 by 40 mm, 5-ounce gold ¥200 (mintage 118).

Two BU strikes are fan-shaped: a 1-ounce silver ¥10 (mintage 66,000) and a 1/2-ounce gold ¥200 (mintage 6,600). Their reverses show the crouching tiger but their common obverse depicts the Drum Tower in Jiuquan, Gansu Province. In China fans represent prosperity and good fortune.

Four selectively colored coins have a reverse showing a traditional Chinese folk tiger design prancing in a field of auspicious peonies, along with the face value and the words G?ngyín in Chinese: a 40 mm, 1-ounce silver ¥10 (mintage 100,000); a 70 mm, 5-ounce silver ¥50 (mintage 8,800); an 18 mm, 1/10-ounce gold ¥50 (mintage 30,000); a 60 mm, 5-ounce gold ¥2,000 (mintage 1,500). The obverses of these coins are same as the round proofs.

Canada’s ‘Kaptivating’ Kitties

As in previous years, the Royal Canadian Mint launched its YoT coins in October and November. Last year was the 12th and last of the $15 bimetallic lunar series designed by Harvey Chan. This year the mint has inaugurated a new Lunar Lotus series, the work of Three Degrees Creative Group. The $15 .925 silver coin has a distinctive eight-fold scallops reminiscent of a lotus flower. On the reverse a restless tiger lashes its tail as it prowls through a bamboo grove. The plain-edged coin has a diameter of 38 mm and weighs in at 26.29 grams. As with Harvey Chan’s bimetallic lunar issues, the mintage is an auspicious 48,888.

Meanwhile, Harvey’s $150 18 karat (0.750 gold, 0.250 silver) extremely popular holographic lunar series continues on its most colorful way. As with the earlier nine coins in this series, the diameter is 28 mm and its weight 11.84 grams. Mintage is 4,888. The overall quality and colorfulness of this issue makes it an ideal Lunar New Year gift.

Both coins feature RCM’s distinctive, uncrowned effigy of Queen Elizabeth II by Susanna Blunt. Prospective purchasers can try www.mint.ca if their friendly neighborhood dealer proves unable to supply.

Singapore’s Fabulous Felines

This will be the 29th year Singapore Mint has issued its lunar coins. The first series ran from 1981 through 1992 and featured realistic representations of the 12 lunar animals. The second series from 1993 to 2004 depicted the animals as traditional Chinese cut-paper effigies.

Since 2005 the designs for the third series by Xu Yunfei of the Shanghai Mint has drawn its inspiration from traditional Chinese calligraphy. His Year of the Tiger coins were released on Nov. 21, 2009. The coins themselves are available from www.mint.com.sg or with a bit of tiger luck, from your favorite coin dealer.

As in recent years, three 0.9999 fine gold proof coins are available: $5 (1/4-ounce, 21.96 mm, mintage 2,000), $100 (1-ounce, 33.00 mm, 2,000) and $200 (5-ounce, 60 mm, 200).

In addition a tiny, 7 mm, 0.3 gram $1 gold coin comes mounted on a gold-colored card featuring a tiger family portrait. Singapore Mint claims this to be the smallest 0.9999 fine gold coin in the world. With a mintage of 3,000, it makes an ideal lai see gift for a junior relative.

The massive 5-ounce 0.999 fine $25 silver coin is the largest coin issued by Singapore Mint. The diameter is 65 mm and mintage of just 250 pieces. It is complemented by a small 20-gram $2 silver coin with a 6,000 mintage. But the prize of the silver collection is the 2-ounce, 45 mm, .999 fine silver $10 piedfort on which the tiger burns bright in full glorious color. Mintage is 20,000.

For those not into precious metals, as in past years a cupronickel proof-like, 38.70 mm $2 is available with an 80,000 mintage.

Once again these coins are available singly or in sets. The three-in-one set contains the $100 gold, the colored $10 silver piedfort and the $2 cupronickel coin, as well as an additional eight-sided, floral-shaped ingot featuring a tiger family taking their ease. The painting is the work of tiger artist Mr. Tan Seng Yong. Only 500 of these sets are available.

This year there is also a two-in-one set that contains the colored $10 silver piedfort, the $2 cupronickel coin and the eight-sided, floral-shaped tiger family ingot. Three-thousand sets have been produced.

And the regular circulating coin sets of the Singapore Mint for 2010 are available in bright red tiger-embellished packs accompanied by an auspicious Chinese New Year blessing. The obverse of all coins bears the Singapore Arms and 2010 solar date.

Once again the Singapore Mint has struck the lunar commemoratives for the Monetary Authority of Macau, as has occurred in the Year of the Rat and Year of the Ox. In keeping with these earlier issues, the designs blend of Western and Eastern cultures as happens in the melting pot of Macau itself.

The obverse of each 2010 coin features a stylish tiger crouching amidst pine trees depicted in brilliant red and green and symbolizing longevity. On the reverse is the Mandarin’s House built in 1881. A World Heritage Site, this was the home of the distinguished scholar Zheng Guanying, whose writings on economics influenced both Mao Tse Tung and Sun Yat Sen.

Mintages, denominations and metals are as for last year’s issue: 21.96 mm, 1/4-ounce (7.776 grams) .9999 fine gold colorized proof 250 patacas with a mintage of 3,000; a 65.0 mm 5-ounce (155.52 grams) .999 fine colorized silver proof 100 patacas with a mintage of just 500; and a 40.70 mm, 1-ounce (31.10 grams) .9999 fine silver colorized proof 20 patacas with a mintage of 6,000.

The coins along with those from Year of the Ox and Year of the Rat are available from www.mint.com.sg.

But There’s More!

Regrettably, back in November 2009 Mongolia’s designs were unknown but, as in recent years, The Big Cat will likely stalk this country’s second lunar cycle series on its 500, 1,000, and massive 2,500 tugrik silver issues, as well as the 10,000 and 50,000 tugrik gold coins.

Nor had anything come in from Monnaie de Paris, who became a fully paid-up member of the lunar coin club in 2007. If the last three years are anything to go by, it can be assumed they will be issuing their silver 1/4-euro and gold 10-euro lunar coins with their distinctive, if somewhat unusual, bicultural designs: the obverse with Jean de La Fontaine, the 17th century French fabulist, and all 12 lunar zodiacal animals; the reverse bearing a tawny cat.

And I am sure there are others out there. Kung hei fat choi!