Coins
Insider’s Tips for Buying and Selling Coins
How the Wholesale Coin Market Works
By Susan Headley, About.com Guide
Whether you are buying or selling coins, you can increase your advantage when dealing with coin dealers by understanding how things work behind the scenes. One of the biggest problems I see, as an observer of the coin collecting marketplace, is the wide gulf between what the average consumer expects from a coin dealer, and what the average coin dealer believes he should provide to the consumer. The majority of these differences boil down to
trust. The average consumer thinks he can trust the coin dealer to give him an honest appraisal and pay a fair price for the coins he is selling. The average dealer feels it is right to pay the lowest price he can for the coins, to maximize his profit, and that it is up to the consumer to do his homework. Fortunately, by finding this article, you will be on a much better footing when dealing with coin dealers.
The Coin Dealing Business – A Brief Overview
There are two major categories of coin dealers – the wholesaler and the retailer. The wholesaler aggressively seeks to bring new material into the marketplace, and often attends coin shows, local auctions, and runs advertising offering to buy coins. Most of this material is then sold in bulk lots to retail-based dealers.
The retail coin dealer gets most of his stock from the wholesalers. Although he, too, may attend coin shows and buy locally, most of his business income is from servicing a clientele of single-coin buyers. A dealer of this type is more likely to pay you higher prices for your coins, since they don’t have to pass through two sets of hands before being sold, but local dealers are also often the worst of the cheats! This is because the larger dealers are more likely to belong to organizations that require them to subscribe to a Code of Ethics, such as the American Numismatic Association or the Professional Numismatists Guild. The number one consideration that anybody who buys or sells coins must consider is recourse. What kind of recourse do you have if things go bad?
Wholesale Coin Prices
One of the best ways to arm yourself against the savvy coin dealer is knowing the wholesale prices he pays for his coins. A very widely-used standard in U.S. coins is the “Grey Sheet1,” sometimes referred to as the “CDN.” This is the Coin Dealer Newsletter, which is printed on grey paper stock, and comes out weekly. Most serious coin dealers subscribe to this publication, which lists the “bid” and “ask” values for every major type of U.S. coin, plus mint sets, slabbed coins, and banknotes (called the “green sheet.”) “Bid” prices are the prices that dealers are paying if another dealer brings the coins to them. “Ask” prices are the prices for coins a dealers asks to buy. For example, if I call and ask to buy 100 common date Silver Eagles, I’ll be quoted the “ask,” or selling price. But if I want to sell the 100 Silver Eagles, I’ll be quoted the “bid” or buying price. The difference between the two prices is the profit margin. It is quite thin for most coins.
An important concept to remember when discussing Grey Sheet prices is that we are talking about the wholesale market. Two things characterize this market: (1) Deals are usually done in bulk numbers, so the prices don’t refer to single coins, in general, and (2) Deals are minimal service transactions. You can’t go up to a coin dealer who has to appraise and grade your collection for you, and expect him to pay Grey Sheet “bid” prices. However, the Grey Sheet should give you a good idea of what your coins are worth in a general sense, so you don’t sell a $1,000 coin for $200.
Coin Dealer Profit Margins
As a general rule, the more common a coin is, and the lower grade the coin is, the higher the profit margin (expressed as a percentage of the selling price) for the dealer must be. The reason for this is that low-grade, common coins are harder to sell. Another reason for this difference is dollar value. If a dealer buys a common date, heavily circulated 1940 Wheat Cent from you, he might pay you 2 cents for the coin and sell it for 5 cents, making a greater than 100% profit (but still only 3 cents!) But if he buys a key date, heavily circulated coin, such as a 1931-S Wheat Cent in Good (G-4 grade), he might be able to pay you $50 for it, even though he will make only a 20% profit when he sells it for $60. The difference here is that the 1931-S is likely to sell much faster than the 1940 Cent, plus the dollar value involved in measurable.
Another general rule of wholesale coin pricing is that the more valuable the coin is, the smaller the profit margin needs to be, percentage-wise. If a coin will sell for $15,000, a dealer can make a nice profit if he buys the coin for $14,000, but he might have this coin in is inventory (and his investment in it tied up) for a long time before someone who can afford $15,000 a pop for coins comes along.
All told, the profit margins for coins are primarily determined by these three factors:
A. How quickly the coin can be resold (market demand)
B. How high the dollar value is (capital outlay)
C. The condition of the coin market overall (market dynamics)
Coin dealers must strike a balance between these factors to remain profitable.
Coin Dealers and Common Junk
One of the reasons there is such a disparity between what the average consumer expects, and what the coin dealer actually delivers when it comes to buying coins from the public is that coin dealers see vast amounts of common “junk.” By “junk” I mean common date wheat pennies, circulated Buffalo Nickels and Mercury Dimes, worn Washington Quarters and circulated Franklin and Kennedy Halves. Coin dealers are offered so much of this type of material that many of them get tired of seeing it. They give such material the cursory once-over and offer low-ball prices for it based on long experience. Usually people have already pulled out the more valuable coins, leaving the “junk,” (or at least the the dealer must assume so.)
The customer, however, feels that his coins haven’t been given a fair appraisal. What if the dealer overlooked something rare? Shouldn’t he look each coin up to be certain? (continued on the next page.)
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Although a formal announcement has not yet been made, the designs of the 2010 Proof Platinum Eagle were recently revealed on the United States Mint’s website. The design theme is “To Establish Justice” continuing the six year series exploring the core concepts of American democracy.
Earlier this year, the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC) and the Commission of Fine Arts (CFA) had reviewed nine candidate designs provided by the United States Mint. Six of the designs had presented an image of blindfolded Justice holding scales with additional allegorical symbols incorporated into some designs. The remaining candidates included a depiction of the Statue of Liberty’s torch, the Supreme Court’s western pediment, and the west front door.
The CCAC had supported the version of blindfolded Justice that has been chosen, with some recommended changes to the design and inscriptions. It appears that the US Mint did act on their suggestion to add a loop to the scale to make it mechanically correct. The CFA had supported the design featuring the torch of the Statue of Liberty, citing its suitability in combination with the obverse design. By law, the final design decision was made by the Secretary of the Treasury.
Some details about the offering were also revealed. The coins will carry a maximum authorized mintage of 10,000 coins. This represents an increase from last year’s level of 8,000 coins, which sold out after about a week. The household ordering limit is set at five, which matches last year’s level.
The price of the one ounce platinum coins will be dependent on the average price of platinum in the week leading up to the release. Within the current range of $1,550 to $1,649.99 per ounce, the coins would be priced at $1,892 each. Last year, the coins were priced at $1,792 based on an average platinum value from $1,450 to $1,549.99 per ounce.
The release date for the 2010 Proof Platinum Eagle is currently scheduled for August 12, 2010.
Gold Prices May Suffer Amid Complaints About Coin Scams
By VISHESH KUMAR Posted 8:00 AM 07/30/10 Economy, Investing
Gold bugs like to think they have all their bases covered. The price of the precious metal can only go up whether the economy is facing inflation or deflation, or so they claim.
But beyond the lack of evidence for the metal’s value thriving in either scenario, gold investors now face a situation that even they can’t put a positive spin on. Major gold vendors like Goldline are coming under rapidly rising scrutiny for steering customers into coins with markups of 35%.
Salespeople imply that investors could exploit a loophole for antique coins to avoid a government confiscation of gold that supposedly took place during the Great Depression. But investors who try to sell the coins see a sharp drop as the market value tends to be less the huge profits pocketed by the vendor.
Fear-Mongering and Conflicts of Interest
Fear-mongering by those who, like Fox News host Glenn Beck, have lucrative deals with gold vendors has been causing angst about conflicts of interest for months. But reports of customers getting put into investments that lose a third of their value upon purchase are causing a new sense of alarm.
A recent episode of ABC’s Nightline, for example, profiles a 63-year-old investor who got only $2,900 for coins he paid $5,000 for just months prior to selling them. Authorities in Los Angeles say they have received over a hundred customer complaints and have launched an investigation of Goldline and Superior Gold Group.
Adam Radinsky from the Santa Monica, Calif., City Attorney’s office told ABC that there have mainly been two types of complaints: customers who said they were lied to and misled into their purchases of gold coins, and those who said they received something different from what they had ordered.
Prices Could Turn Down Sharply
While Goldline executives like to advertise that they have $500 million in sales, it remains unclear what portion of these come from items like coins with steep markups. But if consumer sentiment sours, the momentum in gold prices could turn much more violently than even other volatile investments like stocks and real estate.
Unlike those assets, gold generates no income, and judging its worth is a guessing game. This helps boost prices when they’re on an upward swing. But when the tide turns, there’s no measure like price-to-earnings ratios with stocks, or rental-versus-purchase calculations with houses, to help provide support against a price crash.
Despite the all-encompassing claims made by its advocates, gold may turn out to be a good investment for only one scenario — when gold prices just happen to be rising.
LONDON (Commodity Online): Gold prices that rallied to $1,265 in June has since then failed to attain that levels and Natixis Commodity Markets expects potential for further weakness as some of the arguments for holding gold has become less relevant. This could push prices down to $950, Natixis said.
With the increase in supply and suppression of fabrication demand at current high prices, this requires a constant stream of investment inflows to balance the market.
Natixis Commodity Markets said thatarguments supporting investment are steadily being eroded. The sovereign debt problem is slowly becoming less of an issue, or is already priced into the market, and as such the need to hold gold as an alternative safe haven asset is being progressively reduced. Another bearish factor is producer de-hedging, which having averaged around 350 tonnes a year for the period 2006-09 is set to fall to trivial levels due to the much reduced scale of the outstanding hedge book.
For the Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), the auto sector, particularly in the developing economies, should support some modest gains in average annual prices for platinum and palladium.
In 2009, mined output rose by an estimated 6.5%, and we would expect this to rise further in 2010 and beyond. In combination with potential net selling from investors, higher mined output will lower the equilibrium price at which jewellery demand can balance the gold market.
“We forecast a slide in prices in the third quarter, perhaps accelerating in the fourth quarter, with the market at some point this year approaching the $1,050/oz mark to give an annual average of $1,125/oz. With gold’s negative fundamentals being deep-seated, further weakness in 2011 could take the average price down as far as $950,” Natixis said.
Silver prices will track gold, generating average of $17.75 per oz.A more bullish base metals market in 2011 is expected to give some support to industrial silver demand, justifying an average price only a little lower at $15.50 per oz, avoiding the more overt weakness likely in gold prices. As a result, the gold:silver ratio should narrow considerably to an annual average just over 61, taking it closer to its longer term average in the high fifties.
“We expect global automobile production to maintain its recent strong growth driven by the emerging markets, despite the end of the scrappage schemes in a number of the mature regions. With automobile growth being dominated by petrol-driven cars, and palladium continuing to make in-roads into the diesel sector, we continue to favour palladium over platinum from a demand perspective, ” Natixis Commodity Markets said.
The supply side, especially in South Africa, should offer some support with the potential for electricity supply bottlenecks, labour disputes and safety issues all to impact negatively upon the supply of platinum in particular. “We therefore project a rising trend in both pgms’ prices over the rest of this year.”
“Overall, we expect platinum prices to average $1,600/oz for 2010 as a whole, with the average palladium price at $465/oz. Next year, ongoing increases take our forecast for platinum to an average of $1,700/oz and palladium to $510/oz,” Natixis said.
Long-term platinum fundamentals looking good – Johnson Matthey
While prices may have fallen around 11% in recent months, there are indications that platinum could be bottoming out.
Author: Geoff Candy
Posted: Tuesday , 27 Jul 2010
GRONINGEN -
The price of platinum has fallen around 11% since hitting a 21-month-high in late April, largely on the coat tails of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
But, according to Johnson Matthey’s GM for Market Research, Peter Duncan, both the supply and demand side of the market would suggest the metal is likely to maintain its current level, if not go higher during the course of the rest of the year.
Speaking on Mineweb.com’s Metals Weekly podcast, Duncan declined to give an actual forecast but, said, “Supply at best is going to grow a little bit – it’s certainly being hit by a number of issues and it’s going to struggle to grow at a fast rate”.
On the demand side, he said there is some uncertainty as to whether we are likely to experience a double-dip but, added, ” I would certainly expect demand to be stronger this year in all the industrial applications than it was last year. Jewellery remains quite firm and investment demand likewise seems to be quite sticky.
“So the demand side seems to be holding up quite well and all of that points to a market that is moving closer to balance than last year.
Supply Side:
The big story over last week was the directive out of the South African government’s department of mines about the bord and pillar mining technique and, more specifically, about the space between the pillars. The directive was aimed primarily at Aquarius Platinum, which uses the technique more than most and had just suffered two fatal accidents at its mines.
While the knee-jerk reaction from the market saw Aquarius’s shares plummet, it has subsequently recovered some of its value and, according to Duncan it is too early yet to say what the actual impact of the directive will be.
“The producers themselves are still struggling to interpret exactly what’s required and how they’re going to handle it. But if you look at the overall production from the area that’s immediately affected, we’re talking about platinum and chrome mines in the North West region – the Western Bushveld, south and east of the Union Section – so that amounts to a total annual production of platinum of just under half a million ounces. So it’s going to be a percentage of that. I’ve heard different figures of up to 20%, 25% and down to virtually nothing – the 20%, 25% is probably an exaggeration and more likely we’re going to see [a drop of] 10% to 15% – it’s a bit early to say but I’d be very surprised if it were more than 100,000 ounces a year”.
Over and above the potential impact of more pillars underground, Lonmin too came out with an announcement saying that its refined platinum sales were down almost 50% and, as Duncan says, there are certainly a lot of one off announcements in the platinum sector: “We always call them one-off but they seem to happen every year, don’t they. There’s always some little bit of bad news that dents production”
But he still expects some modest growth in overall South African platinum supply.
Asked about other sources of supply, he says Russian and North American supply is expected to remain fairly consistent.
“The growth potential, all other things being equal, is in Zimbabwe where there are still significant reserves of platinum and where they’re growing in percentage terms, quite strongly in the last few years – but obviously that has its own potential difficulties going forward.”
Demand:
While auto-sector demand for the metal still makes up around half of current usage, Duncan points out that last year there was a dramatic fall off in auto usage and jewellery rose to fill the gap, becoming over 40% of the total market.
And, he believes that there is still a long way to go on the jewellery front. ”
“The biggest market by far for platinum jewellery is China – although demand has fallen off a bit this year – that’s hardly surprising because we saw a large period of stock building in the first half of 2009 which is unlikely to be repeated. But the underlying demand in China is still very strong, and almost irrespective of price, we see that that has a long way to go before it approaches any ceiling,” he says.
From an autocatalyst point of view, which remains the major source of platinum demand, Duncan says the most important thing to focus on is the diesel car’s share of the European market which dipped quite significantly last year.
“What’s really going to be important going forward, is how quickly the diesel share of the market recovers. We’re certainly seeing signs of diesel recovery so far on the fleets, which are typically dominated by diesel, so those are starting to come back in. So really, going forward it’s a case of European diesel share recovery driving platinum demand and at the same time, in the same way that the industry ran down on the stock of vehicles – production fell last year by a lot more than sales fell. This year it will be the opposite – we’ll probably see a build up again of car inventories and of course that will drive demand for PGMs and catalysts, so overall a fairly positive picture but seeing into the future at the moment is quite difficult.
The third prong of the demand trident is also the youngest – ETF or investment demand. Here Duncan admits that there is very little history on which to judge the way that they’ll behave to movements in price.
But, he adds, “So far we’ve seen significant growth in ETF investment this year, after the launch of the US-based ETF fund. How much of that of course is pent up demand and how much reflects what demand will do going forward is a little bit more difficult to say.
“Certainly the demand – the rate of growth in cumulative holdings has fallen, but there’s no real evidence here that people haven’t taken any profit and in fact the cumulative demand in ETFs has just grown irrespective of what price has done – so we saw no or very little exiting of positions when the price dropped recently and the curve has continued to go smoothly upwards. ETF investment – difficult to say what’s going to happen long term but so far, it’s looking fairly sticky, as we say – it’s looking to hold onto the platinum that it’s bought
Article courtesy of www.mineweb.com
Platinum prices expected to gain this year, albeit slowly
As economic recovery continues gradually, analysts expect the resultant rise in demand to push up prices of the metal used predominantly in autocatalysts
Author: Jan Harvey (Reuters)
Posted: Thursday , 22 Jul 2010
LONDON (Reuters) -
Analysts see platinum prices rising as a gradual economic recovery leads to increased demand for the autocatalyst metal, but some of the euphoria that lifted forecasts earlier this year has evaporated after a hefty correction in May.
Platinum is now seen averaging $1,600 an ounce in 2010, a Reuters poll of 40 analysts, traders and fund managers showed, up from a January forecast of $1,553.75 an ounce.
But the latest forecast is well below that shown in a smaller poll conducted ahead of London Platinum Week in May, during which platinum and palladium, which had outstripped gains in other precious metals early in the year, slipped sharply.
That poll of 26 analysts gave a median forecast of $1,650.
While platinum bulls are pinning their hopes on expectations for an economic recovery, some caution remains after a spate of gloomy U.S. data. Prices slid in May as recovery hopes faded and fears of a double dip recession came to the fore.
Those fears are reflected in analysts’ forecasts for gold.
But analysts still expect to see broad global economic growth lifting car sales, in turn raising demand for platinum and its sister metal palladium.
“Although bearish sentiment is hindering upward price momentum, we expect auto demand to rebound this year and glass and chemical usage to recover as the economy recovers,” said Barclays Capital analyst Suki Cooper.
“Supply disruptions have been limited in the first half of the year, (but) as wage negotiations unravel and safety-related stoppages come under scrutiny in South Africa, we believe supply growth is set to be constrained.”
In the remainder of 2010, prices are expected to average $1,580 an ounce in the third quarter, rising to $1,630 in the last three months of the year. Spot platinum was trading just above $1,500 an ounce early on Wednesday.
In 2011, the median platinum price forecast climbed to $1,700 an ounce.
Platinum prices rose 19 percent in the first four months of the year, but failed to hold onto those early gains.
“The long run-up in platinum’s price was largely driven by investment demand, helped along the way by a recovering economy,” said BNP Paribas analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay.
“The recent correction came about as doubts emerged as to the solidity of economic growth on one hand, and receding investment demand on the other.”
PALLADIUM SEEN RISING
Palladium prices are seen averaging $472 an ounce this year, up from a January forecast of $434 an ounce but well below that shown in the pre-Platinum Week poll of $488 an ounce.
In the third quarter prices are expected to average $460 an ounce — above their current level of around $445 — with forecasts rising to $494 an ounce for the fourth quarter.
Palladium strongly outperformed other precious metals in the first quarter, rising 17.6 percent against gold’s 1.6 percent and silver’s 3.9 percent. It fell 7.4 percent in the second quarter, but remains up 14.7 percent year-on-year.
In 2011, palladium is expected to average $519 an ounce, up from a January forecast of $480 an ounce and a pre-Platinum Week forecast of $500 an ounce, due to expectations for improving demand.
“As the economy improves, demand for palladium from fabricators will add further support to prices in 2011,” said Rohit Savant, an analyst at CPM Group in New York.
“Relatively new investment vehicles such as ETFs have added additional support to palladium prices in recent years and are expected to continue doing so in the near future.”
New platinum- and palladium-backed products launched in the United States earlier this year by a unit of London’s ETF Securities helped support expectations for stronger demand.
Inflows of both have steadied in recent months but holdings remain relatively firm. The U.S.-based ETFS Platinum Trust now holds just under 304,000 ounces of metal, while the ETFS Palladium Trust holds just over 780,000 ounces of palladium.
(Additional reporting by Pratima Desai in London, Ruchira Singh in New Delhi, Rujun Shen in Shanghai, Frank Tang in New York, Nicholas Trevethan in Singapore; Editing by Sue Thomas and Veronica Brown)
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Posted by:
Michael | Posted in:
US Mint
At the July 20 House of Representatives subcommittee meeting on “The State of U.S. Coins and Currency,” Michael Clark, President of Diamond State Depository, expressed his industry’s belief that the American Eagle Bullion Coin Program should be broadened with the addition of palladium bullion coins.
The US Mint’s bullion coin program originally included only gold and silver coins, but was broadened in 1997 with the introduction of the American Platinum Eagle. This might set the precedent for another broadening of the program with the American Palladium Eagle.
Statements provided at the hearing cited potential demand for Palladium Eagle bullion coins from both collectors and investors. The coins were presented as an interesting pricing point for precious metals investors at $450 per ounce, compared to higher priced gold and platinum. The possibility that the new coins would absorb some of the demand for Silver Eagles was also mentioned.
During the question and answer session of the hearing, Rep. Ron Paul observed, “If we get the palladium coin… where are we going to get the planchets?”
The question referred to earlier discussions about the US Mint’s current reliance on just three suppliers for precious metals blanks, the apparent bottleneck in the production of bullion gold and silver bullion coins. Platinum bullion coins have not been produced since late 2008, presumably due to the same planchet procurement problem.
Past efforts for U.S. coins struck in palladium have included bills introduced by Rep. Dennis Rehberg and Sen. Max Baccus, both from Montana. These bills have sought the production of Saint Gaudens Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Palladium Coins in numismatic and bullion versions. The bills S. 758 and H.R. 3405 were introduced on April 1, 2009 and July 30, 2009, but have not made any progress.
The United States was the world’s fifth largest producer of palladium. The metal is mined in Montana and refined in New Jersey, California, and South Carolina.
The Royal Canadian Mint is the only major world mint to currently produce palladium bullion coins. They initially produced the Palladium Maple Leaf coins from 2005 to 2007, but the program was ended due to low sales. The RCM revived the program in 2009 when they identified greater market demand for a palladium bullion.
LONDON (Commodity Online): Even as the investors are busy replenishing their portfolios as and when the gold prices dip, it is time for them to take note of other areas like platinum.
According to a report in Telegraph, the upside in platinum prices over the next few years could be better than gold, and the general consensus is that a buying opportunity is likely to present itself in the next two months.
The report added that the platinum price has fallen by almost 15% since it hit a 21-month high of $1,745 an ounce at the end of April. The metal now costs about $1,510 an ounce.
However, the price could fall by another $200 over the next couple of months. A fall to $1,442 would confirm that a major reversal lower has been taking place.
Dealers remained nervous about both platinum and palladium as they see more liquidation coming soon. Technical support for platinum is at $1,485 and $1,450.
Platinum demand should improve in the fourth quarter. However, weak metals prices are not guaranteed over the next few months, so investors looking out for a buying opportunity need to keep their eye on the market. There is a distinct possibility these expected price falls may not materialise.
A continually weakening dollar could stop the price slide in its tracks, as a falling US currency provides support for precious metals such as platinum.
The dollar fell to a nine-week low against the euro last week. The market is starting to catch on that US public debt is surging to 100pc of GDP – and the focus of sovereign debt concerns is shifting.
A continuation of market worries about a double-dip recession in the US and its massive debt woes could lead to further falls in the world’s reserve currency – and cause analysts to rip up their bearish expectations for precious metals prices over the next few months.
Platinum prices are also more dependent on the European economy than other metals. The European auto sector is dominated by diesel engines, which mainly use platinum rather than palladium in their autocatalysts. Investment demand, particularly in the first half of the year has been strong.
The platinum exchange-traded funds (ETF) have absorbed more than 370,000 ounces of the physical metal in 2010. Metals consultancy CPM Group recently noted that ETF holdings of platinum had declined over the last few months, but it argued that the metal would still be attractive for investors because of the supportive supply and demand situation.
The consultancy expects total supply, including recycling, to rise 5.5pc to 7,468,461 ounces this year, as higher prices prompted mines that had been mothballed to be brought back on stream
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
The US Mint has announced the release dates for their “remaining” 2010 products. The collectible Proof and Uncirculated 2010 Gold Eagles and 2010 Silver Eagles are still missing from the schedule, although the US Mint still preserves a glimmer of hope that these popular products might be produced.
The updated schedule includes exact on-sale dates for all previously listed products (although the dates are still stated as tentative). No new products have been added to the schedule, although I would have thought that the US Mint would release the “new” America the Beautiful Quarter Products this year. It’s possible that they will be added to the scheduled later.
The 2010 Proof and Uncirculated Gold and Silver Eagles are listed on the schedule as “TBD.” The US Mint has provided the now familiar explanation about the status of the products:
*Public Laws 99-61 and 99-185 mandate that the United States Mint mint and issue its American Eagle Silver and Gold Bullion Coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand…” There is no corresponding legal requirement to mint and issue the proof and uncirculated coins in quantities sufficient to meet public demand. The bureau, however, is continuing to work with current and potential blank suppliers to increase the supply of silver and gold blanks in amounts that may make it possible to offer the proof and uncirculated versions of American Eagle Silver and Gold Coins in 2010.
I suppose its somewhat favorable that the US Mint has not yet ruled out the offerings completely. At the ANA National Money Show in Fort Worth Texas held March 25-27, 2010, US Mint Director Edmund Moy raised the possibility that the 2010 Proof Silver Eagle would be canceled, citing demand for bullion coins. After that announcement, many collectors already began assuming that the cancellation was a foregone conclusion.
The 2009 Proof and Uncirculated Gold and Silver Eagles were finally announced as canceled in October.
The updated release schedule for 2010 US Mint Products is shown below:
| Presidential $1 Coin & First Spouse Medal Set – Pierce |
6/24/2010 |
| Franklin Pierce $1 Coin Cover |
07/01/10 |
| 2010 United States Mint Uncirculated Coin Set |
07/15/10 |
| 2010 United States Mint Proof Set |
07/22/10 |
| Yosemite Quarter Bags and Two-Roll Sets |
07/26/10 |
| 2010 American Eagle One Ounce Platinum Proof Coin |
08/12/10 |
| James Buchanan Presidential $1 Coin Rolls |
08/19/10 |
| 2010 United States Mint Silver Proof Set |
08/26/10 |
| Buchanan’s Liberty First Spouse Gold Coins |
09/02/10 |
| Buchanan’s Liberty Bronze Medal |
09/02/10 |
| Grand Canyon Quarter Bags and Two-Roll Sets |
09/20/10 |
| Presidential $1 Coin & First Spouse Medal Set – Buchanan |
09/23/10 |
| James Buchanan Presidential $1 Coin Cover |
09/30/10 |
| Mount Hood Quarter Bags and Two-Roll Sets |
11/15/10 |
| Abraham Lincoln Presidential $1 Coin Rolls |
11/18/10 |
| Mary Todd Lincoln First Spouse Gold Coins |
12/02/10 |
| Mary Todd Lincoln Bronze Medal |
12/02/10 |
| First Spouse Bronze Four-Medal Set |
12/02/10 |
| Presidential $1 Coin & First Spouse Medal Set – Lincoln |
12/23/10 |
| Abraham Lincoln $1 Coin Cover |
12/30/10 |
| 2010 American Eagle Silver Proof Coin |
TBD |
| 2010 American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coin |
TBD |
| 2010 American Eagle Gold Proof Coin |
TBD |
| 2010 American Eagle Gold Uncirculated Coin |
LONDON (Commodity Online): CPM, a New York-based commodities analysis firm, has predicted that platinum group metals are set to make a roaring investment option in the coming years.
In its long-term outlook for platinum group metals, CPM said investment demand for PGMs, which has had an effect on recent prices, has been motivated by expectations of future price rises as global economic activity emerges from recession. It is worth bearing in mind that, unlike gold, PGMs are largely industrial metals – in round figures, three-quarters of the world’s annual platinum demand is for industrial uses, particularly for vehicle exhaust catalysts.
So, sticking with platinum alone, CPM reckons that supplies of newly mined metal will remain insufficient to satisfy demand and that, through to 2013-14, the balance between supplies of new and recycled metal could be particularly tight.
By 2014, however, production mothballed at the start of the recession in 2008 will be back on stream, expansion projects put on ice by the major mining companies will have been ramped up and the many newcomers will have brought new mines on stream.
The growth will be largely from South Africa, though CPM is cautious about the effects of safety stoppages, power interruptions and so on. Supplies of by-product PGMs from base-metal mines in Russia and Canada should be rising in parallel with nickel production.
All this is at a time when industrial demand is recovering and secondary supplies are increasing, leading to a period of rising real (inflation-adjusted) prices until 2014. This is projected to be followed by a decline through to 2016, with well-balanced supply and demand, to be followed by further advances to 2019 as the market again tightens.
Moving away from real prices to those in nominal terms, CPM forecasts a steady rise for platinum from last year’s $1212/ounce to average $1573 this year. It is expected to rise to $2035 in 2014.
Then, there is a fall to below $2000 predicted last until 2017 when the $2000 mark is expected to be breached again. By 2019, CPM reckons, platinum’s average price will be just shy of $2190/oz in nominal terms.
As might be expected, much will depend on speculative trading. While investment demand continues to be driven by expectations of the effects of rising industrial demand on prices, CPM warns that selling in anticipation of eventual price declines could well exacerbate falling prices. On the other hand, if or when prices do start to slip, investors might well decide to buy at the then lower price.
The advent of investment demand, particularly by US and European exchange-traded funds, has added a significant imponderable in the market for what was once almost entirely an industrial metal. It could only take a few more currency scares for platinum to move way beyond even CPM’s predictions.
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