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Confederate States Issues
| By Arlyn G. Sieber November 28, 2011 |

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Excerpted from Warman’s Companion to U.S. Coins and Currency, 2nd edition, by Arlyn G. Sieber, available from www.ShopNumisMaster.com.
The story of Confederate paper money is in some ways reminiscent of that of Continental currency. Under desperate wartime circumstances, and with the best intentions, the government attempted to finance the war effort by printing unbacked paper currency. The initial series, backed by cotton, held its value at first and restraint was used in the quantities issued, but as the war continued more and more were printed, causing inflation.
According to the legends on the later notes, they could not be redeemed until “two years after the ratification of a treaty of peace between the Confederate States and United States.” Ultimately the seventh and final issue was authorized in unlimited quantity.
After two billion dollars were issued, the currency’s value eroded almost completely. Measured in gold dollars, its decline can be seen as follows, along with rough quantities issued or authorized:
1861 March $150,000,000 95¢
1862 $265,000,000
1863 $515,000,000 33¢
1864 $1,000,000,000
1865 April none 1-2/3¢
1865 May none 1/12¢
For many years Confederate currency was synonymous with worthlessness, and some people even burned it. From the 1960s onward it has taken on value as a collectible. Since the late 1990s, there has been a particularly strong market for this series. Prices have increased drastically.
The first issue of Confederate currency of March 1861 was initially issued in Montgomery, Ala., but the wording was changed to Richmond, Va. This is because the capitol of the Confederacy was moved to Richmond in May after Virginia withdrew from the Union. Throughout the war the production of Confederate notes was plagued with difficulties. The Northern printers, who had originally been hired to print notes before hostilities erupted, were no longer available. Paper was in short supply.
It was also not always practical to import notes, paper or even plates due to the Union blockade of Southern ports. Some paper was brought in from the North by smugglers and from Great Britain by blockade runners. As a result some of the designs use improvised images not initially prepared for Confederate currency. More suitable images used include portraits of Confederate President Jefferson Davis and members of his cabinet, as well as of Southern agriculture.
Collectors Stick to Budgets at Michigan State Show
| By Patrick A. Heller November 29, 2011 |

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This past weekend, the annual Michigan State Numismatic Society (MSNS) Fall Convention was held in Dearborn. My company hosted two tables there. The results of the show give some significant indicators of the state of both the rare coin and physical precious metals markets.
In years past, the three-day MSNS fall show was considered to be one of the top 10 shows in the country. When the auto industry was strong in Michigan, this show enjoyed tremendous public attendance, with active buying and selling. With lower employment in the auto industry, this show has lost some of its shine, but it is still a significant show, where you can take the pulse of the numismatic hobby/industry.
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This year, there were about 170 tables hosted by dealers. As usual, there was so much traffic on Friday that it was difficult to go up and down the aisles. Traffic slowed down significantly on Saturday, perhaps partly due to both Michigan and Michigan State playing important football games at noon. Traffic on Sunday, a drizzly gray day, was sparse and much less than typical.
On the buying side, my company spent near to the largest we have ever spent at any show in Michigan in more than 30 years! However, the high volume was attributable to one unusually large bullion transaction. Not counting that single transaction, my company probably spent the lowest amount at any MSNS spring or fall show since the mid-1980s.
As I had forecasted, the prices of gold and silver fell in the few days before Thanksgiving. That was almost certainly the reason why we purchased only negligible amounts of bullion-priced gold, silver, platinum, and palladium ingots and coins. Never once in the three days of the show did we need to use our coin counter. Beyond people not selling bullion items to us, they weren’t even asking what we would pay! Obviously, collectors and investors are following gold and silver prices much more closely than they have in years past. In my judgment, most were simply unwilling to sell the treasures for a lower price than they could have received a week earlier.
We did purchase some collector coins, though much less than typical. We were offered fewer pre-1934 U.S. gold coins than typical, largely because many such coins are trading wholesale close to the value of the metal content. We did purchase some nice collector coins, though not as many as usual.
As commonly happens, we once again saw some of the same sets of “trap” coins. The owners were still trying to sell them at prices for nice quality specimens, but the key date coins had problems that often need more than a casual glance to detect. And, as always, there were some would-be sellers that just didn’t understand the market value of what they owned. One owner of a 1936 Cleveland half dollar insisted his coin was a real deal if I would purchase it for $175, but he was unwilling to purchase an identical specimen from my company for $99.
Still, many collectors were familiar with the current market and were simply unwilling to part with their holdings at current price levels.
Sales were healthy, though still below levels of previous shows. My company participates in the U.S. Mint bulk sales program, where we can then resell proof and mint sets and some proof Eagles to other dealers at prices below what the Mint charges. We also purchase bullion Eagles from wholesalers in larger lots and can sell them to smaller dealers at prices cheaper than they could obtain small quantities elsewhere. Normally at this show, we sell hundreds of sets and over a thousand bullion silver Eagle dollars to other dealers so they can offer them in their stores as gift purchases. This year, we experienced our lowest sales of such sets and coins going back to when the U.S. Mint began its bulk sales program. I see in the financial news that general Thanksgiving weekend sales were considered strong. However, if coin dealers are an accurate indicator of retailer expectations in general, gift sales in the next few weeks could be dismal.
My company had purchased an impressive rare coin collection a few days before the show started, so the foreign coin collectors and dealers had a field day at our tables. Our fresh paper money purchases that were not the run-of-the-mill common notes also sold readily. Perhaps the most popular U.S. coins were in our display of certified MS-70 1/10 ounce gold Eagles. At prices ranging from 20-30 percent above gold value, we sold specimens to a number of customers.
More than usual at this show, we experienced customers buying on a strict budget. In years past, many collectors would often bring part of their collection that they would consider using to trade to acquire the “just right” coins of especial interest to them. This year, it seemed like there were less inclined to part with coins they already owned. Instead, many shoppers had a strict dollar limit of what they were willing to spend, and were very selective as to how they spent their money.
Overall, the show turned out well for many of the dealers there. Still, actual buying and selling activity seemed muted to what dealers were expecting. To me, that is a clear sign that collectors are being very careful with their cash flow right now. They generally are unwilling to sell their holdings at current prices, but they tend to be careful with their spending until they know that the economy is recovering. Rare coins and other collectibles are not the necessities of life as are food, shelter, clothing, and transportation. Because of that, there are some attractive numismatic bargains today—if you can find a collector willing to part with them.
P.S. Now that the Mint has shipped the bulk of the 25th anniversary silver Eagle dollar sets, many people are looking to cash out their sets. We put one opened set in our showcase offering to sell it at $775, but no one bought it. A number of people asked what we would pay to purchase more sets, but nobody took us up on our offer. Late at the MSNS show, another major dealer dropped his bid on these sets to $550. I would not be surprised to see prices drop further in the coming weeks.
Unfortunately, it was obvious ahead of time that the U.S. Mint was underpricing these sets that would have two low mintage coins. As a result, a large part of the demand to purchase them came from those looking to make a quick profit by selling them. Normally, the bulk of demand for commemoratives and special issues comes from collectors looking to keep the coins in their collections. But, because so many were purchased by those wanting to sell them right away, I suspect that prices will continue to decline from their peak over a week ago. If past track records are an accurate guide, their price will likely fall too far, then take several months or maybe even a year to recover to a sensible level.
Patrick A. Heller owns Liberty Coin Service and Premier Coins & Collectibles in Lansing, Michigan and writes Liberty’s Outlook, a monthly newsletter on rare coins and precious metals subjects. Past newsletter issues can be viewed at http://www.libertycoinservice.com. He also writes a bi-monthly column on collectibles for The Greater Lansing Business Monthly (http://www.lansingbusinessmonthly.com/articles/department-columns). His radio show “Things You ‘Know’ That Just Aren’t So, And Important News You Need To Know” can be heard at 8:45 AM Wednesday mornings on 1320-AM WILS in Lansing (which streams live and becomes part of the audio and text archives posted at http://www.1320wils.com).
25th Anniversary Set Update
28/11/11
25th Anniversary Set Update
It seems that the majority of orders for the 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set have shipped, although each day a few collectors report their orders finally shipping. The last post on this topic has continued to be updated by readers with their latest status, shipping dates, and other observations. The post has now reached 879 comments. I wanted to start a fresh post with some brief updates and for collectors to provide new status reports.
To recap, the 25th Anniversary Sets went on sale at the US Mint on Thursday, October 27, 2011 at 12:00 Noon ET. After just four and a half hours, the Mint received orders for the entire 100,000 maximum production. Orders continued to be accepted for placement on a waiting until the following morning. The Mint started shipping the first sets to collectors the week of November 7, a few weeks earlier than expected.

Unique Coins of the Set
The sets are particularly desirable because of the inclusion of two coins (or possibly three) unique to the product offering. The confirmed unique coins are the 2011-S Uncirculated Silver Eagle and the 2011-P Reverse Proof Silver Eagle. Each of these coins have a mintage of only 100,000 pieces, which rank as the second lowest mintage American Silver Eagles ever issued by the US Mint.
As collectors have started to examine their sets, some have identified a potential difference for the bullion Silver Eagle included. Some initial reports found a difference in the finish compared to bullion coins issued through the regular channels. Later reports have identified a “dent” or “dimple” on the middle tail feather of the eagle on the reverse, which seems to appear only on the bullion coins included in the 25th Anniversary Sets.
Capsules Opening During Shipping
There have been many reports about the plastic capsules containing the coins opening during shipping. In some cases, readers have reported finding individuals coins rattling around unprotected within the box. This is understandably upsetting and particularly unfortunate for this product offering since if returned for quality issues, it is probably unlikely that replacements sets could be issued.
Third Party Grading
Some collectors are choosing to send their sets to third party grading companies such as PCGS or NGC for encapsulation and grading. In order to have all five coins in the set identified as coming from the 25th Anniversary Sets, the companies have required submission of the coins within the sealed US Mint shipping boxes.
Some early information seems to indicate a high proportion of coins grading MS70 and PR70. This is surprising since the coins must be submitted “blind,” i.e. collectors do not have an opportunity to view the coins and select the best ones for grading. It is also surprising given the problem of opening capsules mentioned above.
For the 2006 20th Anniversary Sets, around 10-20% of coins seemed to be receiving the top grades. For the 2011 25th Anniversary Sets, the earliest population report data available shows more than 50% of coins receiving the top grades. This may change or shift lower as time passes and more coins are graded, but it is certainly something to watch if contemplating paying a big premium for top graded coins.
Separately, there has been some controversy about policies for returning the original Mint packaging. You can read more in this CoinUpdate article.
Waiting List Status
As mentioned, the US Mint accepted orders for placement on a waiting list after orders were received for the maximum mintage. Orders are fulfilled from the waiting list in first-in, first-out sequence in the event that sets become available due to the order cancellations. The waiting list period seems to be from around 4:30 PM ET to the following morning around 10:15 AM ET.
There have been reports of some orders placed near the end of the waiting list period having been canceled by the Mint. Presumably, there were so many waiting list orders ahead in the list that these would have no chance of being fulfilled. There still seem to be a large number of collectors with waiting list orders that have not yet been canceled. When checking the status with the US Mint’s Track Order function, these will say ” Your order request is in process.”
The latest order numbers that have been reported as “in stock and reserved” or “shipped” seem to be #38382xxx. If anyone has any later order numbers that have shipped or other information, as always, please post in the comments
2011 Proof Silver Eagle Sold Out
28/11/11
2011 Proof Silver Eagle Sold Out
In an unexpected development, the 2011 Proof Silver Eagle has sold out. The status was changed on the US Mint’s website this morning, and I have received confirmation that the product is indeed no longer available for sale.
For several hours today, the 2011 Glacier Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins were also marked as sold out. In this case, the status was changed in error and later corrected. These coins remain available for sale.
The 2011 Proof Silver Eagles were first available for sale on June 30, 2011. The coins were initially priced at $59.95 and subject to an ordering limit of 100 per household. The limit was completely removed on July 15, 2011. Pricing for the product was adjusted on two occasions, first increased to $68.45 and then decreased to $58.95, which remained in effect for the remainder of the availability period.
The last reported sales published today on CoinUpdate were 850,000. The coins were also included in the 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set, which had a mintage of 100,000.
The United States Mint did not indicate a maximum mintage or anticipated sales ending date for the individual proof Silver Eagle. The product was actually featured in the US Mint’s 2011 Holiday Catalog, received by most collectors last week. The unexpected conclusion of sales is surprising considering there is more than a month left in the 2011-calendar year and with the holiday shopping season yet to begin. It seems like extremely poor planning on the part of the Mint to not have the coins available through the end of the year.
To make the situation even more curious, the West Point Mint was reported to have produced additional proof Silver Eagles for the 25th Anniversary Sets in late August and September. During the same time period, it would have made sense to produce additional proof coins for individual sales. This determination could have been made by examining inventory levels and current sales trends.
For several years running, the availability of the Proof Silver Eagle has been erratic and inconsistent. This is not an ideal situation, as the product is one of the US Mint’s most popular numismatic offerings. In 2008, proof Silver Eagle sales were unexpectedly suspended in August and never resumed, as a result of a shortage of silver planchets. In 2009, the product offering was completely canceled, due to ongoing high demand for bullion coins and planchet supply issues. In 2010, there were doubts about the status of the offering for much of the year. Sales finally began very late in the year on November 19 and only continued until December 28.
Popular products which unexpectedly sell out at the US Mint have sometimes experienced higher secondary market prices. The unmet demand from collectors and dealers who intended to place final orders serves to push up prices temporarily or sometimes for an extended period of time. In the coming days, we will see if premiums develop for 2011 Proof Silver Eagles.
As a final point, the unexpected sell out of the proof Silver Eagles may be an indication of things to come. If the US Mint is not properly managing production based on inventory levels and sales trends, it is possible that other 2011-dated numismatic products could experience early and unexpected sell outs. If this occurs for products such as the collectible uncirculated Gold Eagle, collectible uncirculated Silver Eagle, or First Spouse Gold Coins, new mintage lows could be established.
Top Grades Differ With Age of Series
| By Paul M. Green, Numismatic News November 22, 2011 |

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This article was originally printed in Numismatic News.
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The old advice to buy the best you can afford is still the best advice but it is potentially getting more difficult to follow. It is natural as prices rise that buying the best coin possible will be more expensive, but what is happening now is that it may well be getting increasingly more difficult to identify what the best coin is for any specific date. The problem might actually be considered a good one as our information is improving all the time, but more and more collectors need to examine what information we have before considering what their next purchase might be just to be sure they are truly getting the best and not a coin that in the years ahead will be seen as only average.
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There has always been a desire in the rare coin market to own the best. That is natural and we can see in many cases where offerings and auction catalogs stretching back well over a century claim that a certain coin is the best or at least one of the best of the date ever seen. At the time many of these catalogs were compiled, there was very little information and almost no way to compare one coin against another of the same date.
In a sense, at least to some older collectors the old ways of doing things when it came to grading probably seem better, or at least easier and collectors from other countries tend to agree.
There was something very simple and certainly far less pressure to walk into a coin shop in the 1950s and purchase a circulated or uncirculated coin and even in the 1950s there were many who saw grading as nearly that simple as either a coin had seen used or it had not. The difference was easy to spot and disputes were few and far between. There were some differences in circulated grades but they were generally widely recognized and also easily understood.
For many in the 1950s, although there were designations like “choice” or “gem,” the idea of “uncirculated” was basically a term that applied equally to any coin that had never reached circulation. It seems so simple and it was. I can remember one day at the local coin shop where the owner was showing me three different 1950-D Jefferson nickels, all of which were graded as uncirculated and consequently all had the same price. Even today there is a relatively small difference in Mint State prices for the 1950-D, but at the time I and a number of others spent a good deal of time trying to figure out which of the three we thought was the best. There were basically no standards to apply except for our personal feeling as to which of the three coins was the nicest. Sure enough, there was a split opinion although everyone agreed that one of the three was not quite as nice as the other two.
Even while we were trying to pick and choose among 1950-D nickels, things were changing as grading had already begun an evolution that continues to the present day and which is likely to continue well into the future. There were already grading standards, but it must be remembered it was a time when the bulk of the nation’s collectors were collecting from circulation and the intense interest that would come later in the highest grades was still for many hobbyists something that seemed remote from their regular collecting as a more important concern was whether the next roll of Lincoln cents that they searched might include a 1910-S in it.
Realistically, there had been general guides to grading coins dating back at least to 1897 when The Numismatist had issued seven classes for condition from basically damaged to best. In 1958 a book called A Guide to the Grading of United States Coins by Martin R. Brown and John W. Dunn was a major breakthrough as it actually had specific guidelines to grading. That was new as prior to that time it was basically a learning process from other collectors or dealers and if you happened to learn from someone who was not that skilled you could end up making many mistakes before realizing the problem.
That said, the Brown and Dunn guide had limitations as it did not even have sketches to illustrate specific coins until 1964.
Things improved even further in the 1970s when James F. Ruddy produced Photograde, which was clearly another step forward as by using photographs collectors were finally able to see just how a coin in a certain grade would appear. There were still shortcomings as coins sometimes did not fit perfectly into a certain grade, but by the 1970s most involved in coin collecting were fairly adept at grading circulated coins.
While progress was being made in giving everyone standards by which to grade coins there was still a great deal left to be done. The biggest problems were illustrated by our problem with the uncirculated 1950-D Jefferson nickels as all uncirculated coins are not equal, and while the differences from one circulated grade to another can be fairly clear, the situation in Mint State especially to the newcomer is not as clear.
In 1977 the American Numismatic Association took a dramatic step by releasing the Official A.N.A. Grading Standards for United States Coins.” It was a dramatic because the standards the ANA was using were based on a system designed by Dr. William H. Sheldon in his book Early American Cents, which was first published back in 1949.
The Sheldon scale used numbers from 1 to 70 to designate the grades of large cents. The scale had a practical side as it helped to illustrate values as well as condition. A coin receiving a 4 would be approximately twice as valuable as one receiving a 2.
The first edition of the ANA work showed grades of MS-60 and MS-65 as well as a theoretically perfect grade of MS-70, but that proved to not be enough. Grades of MS-63 and MS-67 arrived in 1981. Also, the numbers no longer were intended to be an specific indicator of value. A VG-8 might be a better grade than G-4, but the price could be more than double the G-4 price.
The changes were in many ways reflecting a changing nature in the coin market. In the 1950s many had simply collected from circulation with purchases from local coin shops or mail order dealers and auctions being relatively unusual events that often were prompted by not being able to stand looking at the empty hole in the Whitman album for the 1909-S VDB.
The elimination of mintmarks for three years starting in 1965 and the elimination of silver in 1965 for the dime and quarter while the half dollar was reduced to 40 percent before it too had all silver eliminated after 1970 had basically ended the days of serious collecting from circulation. Silver coins of the 90 percent alloy disappeared by the end of 1968 making completing collections virtually impossible at least from circulation. Increasingly, many turned to dealers as their source of coins and to the upper grades as the coins they wanted to buy.
Although the idea of numerical grading had great appeal it still had some problems, which were exposed in the market in the early 1980s. Morgan dollars were a particular focus as at the time. MS-65 was basically seen as the standard for an excellent Morgan dollar. The problem was that one dealer or collector’s MS-65 was not nice enough for another. In fact there were big price differences with some being willing to pay more for an MS-65 than others were asking for their MS-65. In fact, many openly admitted that they did not know what made for a $500 MS-65 as opposed to a $165 MS-65 and in part this was because there are many variables in a coin like a Morgan dollar such as bag marks and where they are located, sharpness, luster and other factors. At the time, one frustrated dealer simply shrugged his shoulders and suggested to me that he had no idea what his coin would grade. He just knew it was $300 and the buyer could call it any grade he wanted.
A number of groups were being hurt by the lack of clarity. Buyers wanted to be sure the coin they were getting was the grade it was sold as, fearing paying for an MS-65 only to have it later be an MS-63. Dealers were also confused and sales were probably suffering as a new generation of buyers was not content to simply hear from a dealer that the coin they were buying was, “as nice as I’ve ever seen.” It was at this time that the third-party grading service business burst onto the scene.
It was 1986 when David Hall introduced a concept that has been with us ever since with the debut of the Professional Coin Grading Service. It was followed by others, the most important of which was the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America. What put their mark on the industry was the use of the plastic slab. Along with its grading guide, the ANA had also offered a grading service called ANACS that photographed coins and issued grading certificates. The coins, though, were not sealed in the holder. That little factor made all the difference and PCGS and NGC took large market shares.
Since their introduction, PCGS and NGC have served as the dominant grading services offering the thing many wanted at the time, which was independent grading that most dealers would accept. Other firms followed their example.
It would, however, be wrong to suggest that everyone welcomed the grading service as the solution to problems seen in the market at the time. In fact, some swore they would never have their coins “entombed” in the plastic holders being used by the grading services. For many, at least initially there was enormous curiosity. I can remember spending a night in a hotel room in Kansas City with a dealer going through a box of the first grading service coins comparing one grade to another especially in Morgan dollars trying to determine with certainty what made a coin MS-65 or another grade. It was the public, however, who ultimately made the decision that the grading services were a success as without demand for coins graded by PCGS or NGC, the services would not have lasted long.
Even today with the services offering Mint State and Proof grades with the focus on coins from -60 to -70 there are still complaints and fair observations not the least of which is that grading is still not perfectly uniform in that a coin sent to different grading services can sometimes come back with different grades. That said, if a coin such as an MS-65 is honored by the majority of dealers and auction houses, that supplies the security many wanted so badly.
Moreover, coins graded by third parties does prevent some of the worst abuses of the past as very few cleaned or problem coins are going to get grades that would make them valuable, so those buying certified coins are unlikely to learn years later that the coins they purchased as MS-63 were actually cleaned AU-55 coins worth far less than they paid at the time.
While the contribution of the grading services to secure grading has been significant, a much less often mentioned fact is the information these services have provided through regular listing of all the coins graded and in what grades they are found. Such listings have become invaluable in the rise of so-called “ultra grade coins,” which are the finest known example of a specific date. In the past, a buyer would basically have to take the word of a seller that the coin being purchased was the “best I’ve ever seen.” Of course, if the seller had never seen many of the specific date his observation while honest did not mean much, but the grading services with records on millions of coins are a different matter.
The impact of better information on prices can be seen in any number of transactions. One instance I remember clearly happened in early 2003 when an MS-68 with full head 1920-D Standing Liberty quarter brought a price in excess of $130,000. At the time, an MS-65 with a full head was listed at $6,250, but to have the finest known as no others had been graded in MS-68 with a full head, the price simply soared and that has happened repeatedly since then especially when a coin is the only one known in the highest grade.
What the grading service reports have also done is to give us a far better idea than at any time in the past regarding how available certain dates are in certain grades. For example, it has always been known that the key 1799 large cent was extremely tough even in upper circulated grades. They were made on dark, rough planchets and simply do not usually come very nice, but now we have much better proof as the 1799 is almost never even seen in AU much less Mint State, confirming what most had believed but never had been able to prove.
For the early years, the grading services did not see many recent coin issues as financially it made little sense to pay money to grade a coin that was worth only a few dollars. Modern commemoratives, modern bullion coins and even ultra grades have changed that and we are now looking at a great deal of information about recent issues and some of that information may point to trouble ahead for the old Sheldon numerical system.
The simple fact is that MS-65 has basically become the standard for excellence in coins. In coins prior to the Civil War you do not find many MS-65 examples and even through 1900 they are the exception to the rule even if you just consider Mint State examples. Since the early part of the 20th century, however, MS-65 does not rank as highly in terms of designating the best or even close to the best. Price guides might still stop at MS-65 but the more recent the coin the less impressive MS-65 is as a grade.
The grading services show the trend. There are a surprising number of MS-65 with full split band Mercury dimes or MS-65 with full head Standing Liberty quarters when compared to the MS-65 totals for the same dates in many cases. In fact, we may well be seeing the impact as MS-65 prices for some coins are not rising as we might expect simply because demanding buyers want better coins. Just as important, we are now able to see very clearly that with more recent issues a grade like MS-65 is simply not going to be good enough for many. At NGC for instance, they have graded 81 Barber half dollars in MS-67 or better while the MS-65 total is 856.
In the case of Walking Liberty half dollars the MS-65 total of all dates is 68,453 but the MS-66 total is 27,913 and that is just MS-66, but it is a much higher percentage than was seen in Barber half dollars.
In the case of Franklin half dollars the number in grades above MS-65 is again higher than was seen in Barber half dollars, but not as high in terms of percentage as was seen with Walking Liberty half dollars.
If, however, we turn to clad Kennedy half dollars we discover 3,177 have been graded MS-65 but 9,449 were MS-66 and 7,311 were MS-67 with over 1,700 in higher grades. The simple fact is MS-65 for a clad Kennedy half dollar is not that good and in fact higher grades are far more available.
If we take commemorative half dollars from 1892-1954, we find there were roughly two coins in MS-65 for each coin in MS-66 and a relatively small number in higher grades. If, however, we take modern commemorative business strikes we find there are virtually none that grade below MS-68 and many even reach MS-70. It can vary from one to another but the fact remains even MS-67 for a modern commemorative is not a high grade, but rather a very low one. The same patterns exists for American Eagle bullion coins of all metals. If anyone tries to sell you an MS-65, while that might sound good, it is actually not and even an MS-68, which might seem like potentially a great coin, might well prove to be very average depending on the date.
There are notable exceptions, such as Eisenhower dollars, which in some cases seem to have been poorly made, but the fact remains that if we seek an average grade for the coins of the United States we will find that recent issues are as a group not just higher than issues of the early 1900s but much, much higher and nearly off the charts at least in terms of the old Sheldon numerical system.
This is not to suggest that the current system is not adequate as perhaps it will continue to be used for a long time, but it does suggest that back in 1977 two Mint State grades not counting MS-70 were seen as adequate. Just a few years later two more grades became widely accepted and later there were others as greater precision was desired.
Today with so many new coins hitting at least MS or Proof-68 and with many others reaching a perfect -70, which was thought to be basically impossible only a few decades ago, it is fair to question whether we have reached the end of evolution in terms of grading standards. After all, the current system dates to 1949 and was made for early coppers. We build better planes than we did in 1949, have computers and so much else and based on the records kept by the grading services we apparently make much better coins now than in 1949 and our grading standards might well have to evolve to reflect that fact.
Ratios Suggest Metals Deflation
23/11/11
Ratios Suggest Metals Deflation
| By Harry Miller, Numismatic News November 22, 2011 |

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This article was originally printed in Coins Magazine.
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While I remain bullish on metals simply because of worldwide monetary problems, we should consider the other side of the coin. There is a good case for deflation as we approach another probable recession. John Q. Public never came out of recession, especially when you consider the 16-20 percent who are unemployed or underemployed.
Look at silver and especially platinum. They seem to be indicating something more than a correction. Silver is now at over a 55-to-1 ratio vs. gold. Platinum, which historically trades in the 1.1 to 1.4-to-1 ratio over gold, is now at .9.
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Now those kinds of numbers could be indicating deflation since the markets currently view both silver and platinum as industrial metals. Gold on the other hand is still very much monetary especially with continued central bank accumulation.
Another factor is forced or involuntary liquidation. COMEX raised margin requirements Sept. 30 on gold, silver and copper because of market volatility, or was it pressure from the Fed?
Often repeated in the financial news is that traders who have been hammered in the stock market are liquidating precious metals to raise cash and take profits to add liquidity to their portfolio. Now when you consider some of the big hedge funds like that of John Paulson, this is quite plausible since his fund and others have taken some big hits in the financial sector. Hedge funds must remain somewhat liquid, especially when they are not showing steady gains for their clients because people usually pull money out at that time.
Now if you run one of these funds and need to quickly raise millions, what is the quickest most expedient way? Liquidate precious metals positions. If the market turns, you can be back in almost instantly.
I think when the economy gets squeezed a little more and financial markets remain weak Ben Bernanke will invent a new tool to increase liquidity and prime the presses. After all, next year is a presidential election year and it’s all about the money. That is when we will see renewed interest in precious metals.
There has been an interesting increase in the premiums for generic USA gold type coins in the last month. They are still down in most cases, but they are down far less than bullion.
This month along with many others we did a complete review of state quarters and unfortunately the numbers are not good. There is a lack of interest in this series and almost no promotional activity to support the market.
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Take Advantage of Stable Paper Prices
| By Bill Brandimore, Bank Note Reporter November 21, 2011 |

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This article was originally printed in Bank Note Reporter.
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Paper money prices seem to be relatively stable at the present time. I suspect we will see fairly stable prices continue over the next several years. Now is probably the right time to do your homework and become a careful buyer of all the notes you’ve been dreaming of – if your finances can abide it. I expect to see a feeding frenzy and skyrocketing prices when we finally break out of our poor economic situation. It is better to get the notes you need now rather than chase them at ever higher prices later.
The “Apparent” and “Net” grades used by PCGS Currency and Paper Money Guaranty third-party grading services create some interesting options at the moment. In almost all cases where those notations are used, the note will sell well below its catalog price were it not branded with those scarlet letters.
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Such notations are obviously meant to alert the buyer to a condition problem. However, the notations have been taken to mean the note is a tainted entity. Clearly when a note has been doctored it is important to identify that condition.
However, when the defect on a note is merely a small margin tear or a foxing mark, there is really no attempted fraud going on. It should be noted, but I don’t think such notes should be lumped in with altered notes. Do you? That in essence is what is happening. Potential buyers are downgrading all such notes as tainted. These notes will then sell well below the normal price range of the numerical grade even though the defect might be very small.
An example of this price effect is seen in the Heritage Long Beach catalog of this past September. Two $500 1918 Federal Reserve Notes were auctioned. The Very Fine-20 graded note sold for $16,100. The Apparent Extra Fine-45 graded note brought $12,600. In this case, the notations explained that the top edge was restored and replaced. I think restorations and replacements are serious enough to warrant a big financial adjustment. When a note is repaired notice should be taken.
The thoughtful buyer will closely examine auction lots before the auction begins and determine if he is willing to take on a small, or large problem in a note. If a note is really scarce, he might even be willing to take on a restored note. The main thing here is potential buyers know all they need to know about a note if the note has been graded by a third party. In that sense the graders are providing a valuable service to our hobby.
As I take notice of Net and Apparent graded notes I also see notes that are missing the EPQ (Exceptional Paper Quality), or PPQ (Premium Paper Quality) notation on a graded note label. This doesn’t mean that there is something special about the note. It means that the note is original. It has not been pressed or otherwise manipulated to reduce the effect of folds or minor handling. This does not seem to be as problematic. I would certainly opt for PPQ or EPQ given similar prices. So keep this in mind as well as you go about purchasing your notes.
I enjoy hearing from readers, so if you have a question or a comment, or think I’m off the mark on something in this guide, email me with your comments. I look forward to them. Reach me at billbrandimore@charter.net. As a retired police officer, I can assure you that my skin is pretty thick. Take care out there and if you’re going to the Michigan State Numismatic Society show over Thanksgiving weekend, look for me, I’ll be there Friday and Saturday.
Coin investment funds could place greater demand on top rarities
By Steve Roach on November 21, 2011 3:23 PM
By Steve Roach – http://www.steveroachonline.com
Rare coin investment funds have been around for decades, and on Oct. 31, the formation of four new funds to be managed by Certified Assets Management International LLC, was announced. One of the funds is expected to acquire up to $250 million in rare coins.
For many, what first comes to mind regarding “coin funds” are two rare coin funds in which the Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation invested a total of $50 million between 1998 and 2005.
Although the funds returned more than $10 million in profit to the state, their success was tainted when Ohio coin dealer Thomas W. Noe was found guilty of various charges including theft and money laundering related to his management of the two funds.
The concept of collectible objects forming the basis of an investment fund is not new. In the past decade several fine art funds have emerged. Philip Hoffman, CEO of The Fine Art Fund Group LTD, summarized the appeal of art-based funds, stating, “The value of a [painting by] Canaletto will never go down to zero, it will never do an Enron or a Marconi.”
The Fine Art Fund Group fund has created relationships with several major banks including the Emirates National Bank of Dubai. Gary Dugan, chief investment officer of the bank, has stated: “We’re not doing interior decoration. It’s not an aesthetic investment but a financial investment.”
Investors are increasingly turning to alternative asset classes like fine art and rare coins as stores of wealth, although the case for paintings as an investment differs somewhat from coins, in that thousands of art museums around the world acquire and serve as permanent depositories of art, creating an ever-shrinking supply of Old Master through Modern paintings.
Rare coins generally enjoy greater liquidity than fine paintings and the possible infusion of $250 million in the rare coin market could help the market reach new levels.
As some paintings can trade for up to $150 million privately, many have wondered whether the presence of institutional investors is needed for individual rare coins to break the $10 million barrier.
Whether CAMI will be able to attract investors to the funds is yet to be determined, as is the impact that an additional major buyer will have on the coin market. If the funds are done right, it could add legitimacy to rare coins as an alternative asset class worthy of high-end investor dollars.
The Gold Bullion Market from a Coin Dealer’s Perspective
By Mark Ferguson on November 18, 2011 2:46 PM
By Mark Ferguson for CoinWeek – MFrarecoins.com
There are several of us coin dealers nationwide who’ve been in this business virtually all our lives – for 40, 50 or 60 years, or even longer – since we were teenagers, or even younger. We’ve been around the market for gold bullion all that time and have been buying and selling gold as physical assets.
We’ve all handled rare coins, collected for their numismatic attributes, such as high grade or rare date gold coins, and we’ve bought and sold gold bullion coins, valued just for their precious metals content, such as South African Krugerrands, Canadian Maple Leaf coins, and American Eagle gold coins, all one ounce of gold each.
There are also smaller sizes. As coin dealers, we’ve lived with the great swings in the gold price from $35 per ounce before the gold window reopened for Americans to own gold during the early 1970s to the record high price gold bullion reached during January, 1980 of $850, and to today’s record price of around $1,900 per ounce.
We’ve also lived with a depressed market for gold bullion that last pretty much during the rest of the 1980s and 1990s while the economy was being pumped up by the country’s rising debt load. Then the gold price began to perk up again during the early 2000s. For many of us in the coin business, what’s going on in the foundations of the financial world these days is intuitive. The recent record high prices for gold have not been a mystery to us, or even a surprise. We see the foundations of the world economies weakening because of the massive debt load, from individuals, to cities, counties, state governments, and federal or sovereign debt.
Social tension around the world is growing, and so is crime. Since World War II several generations have lived very good lives, as least economically speaking. But in doing so, our economies have been pumped up through taking on all this debt. And now it’s become unsustainable. The solution is to cut way back on government spending and produce tax revenue and employment through private sector productivity. Now the day of reckoning to pay for our good times since the war is upon us. Politicians and governments are trying their best to put this off, by putting “band aids” on the problem, like all those stimulus dollars that have been pumped into economies around the world during the past three years.
Even though gold doesn’t produce an end product, like a business does, for example, gold has been recognized as the ultimate form of money for literally thousands of years. We have to have something that represents stored value to trade for goods. When the United States Mint was created during the early 1790s U.S. coins had to contain a specific amount of gold, silver, or copper. There was no official paper U.S. currency at that time, however most people remember “Colonial Currency,” used in the colonies before we became a country, which is what preceded the official coinage of the United States of America. The U.S. didn’t have paper currency, as we know it today, until the Civil War days. Precious metals were our currency.
When paper currency was introduced into the U.S. economy, during that time, it represented a specific amount of gold or silver that was stored in vaults. For example, many people remember the “silver certificates” the U.S. used for generations. Because the price of silver was rising and the value of our paper currency was falling, the U.S. government stopped redeeming those silver certificates back in 1968. But because our society was so used to using paper money, most people didn’t notice what was happening. As this evolution moved further away from using precious metals as money, i.e. gold, silver, and copper coinage, as mandated by the young U.S. government in the 1790s, money became nothing more than paper certificates, then became computer digits, in the bigger picture. Today our money is “faith-based!” Nothing stands behind it, except the faith in our government leaders – people, just like you and me. It’s all just notations inside computers, except for the actual paper certificates in people’s wallets and cash registers.
So today our government leaders, in a good-hearted attempt to preserve our standard of living, are doing what they can to avoid an all out collapse of our financial system, exemplified by the events of late 2008, when we began to see runs on banks and financial bailouts. These bailouts, and using government and Federal Reserve created stimulus money, are just temporary fixes, while avoiding the austerity measures needed. People simply don’t want to reduce their living standards. But this may be forced upon us through natural market forces that readjust all the pumping up through the debt load that’s been taken on virtually throughout the worldwide economy, including households.
But those people who’ve been around gold for a long time, like coin dealers, know our economy is heading back to using inflation, by creating money, to stave off a depression that we all want to avoid, because we know what times were like during the 1930s. Inflation is not just printing more dollar bills, or $100 dollar bills, or even larger denominations, like $500s and $1,000 dollar bills that we used to use. There even used to be $10,000 and $100,000 bills that were mostly used within the banking system! And this could happen again. To illustrate, some people have even seen the 100 trillion dollar notes issued by the country of Zimbabwe during the past few years because of inflation.
But inflation is created more behind the scenes, where the general public doesn’t realize what’s happening. It’s a complex system of using the Fed (the Federal Reserve System) to create financial instruments, like bonds, that are traded on a high level – between governments, as well as in the private sector. Inflation will make times seem better on the one hand, because the economy will seem like it’s churning along, but prices will rise dramatically and purchasing power will diminish, like during the late 1970s. Imagine paying $10 or $15, or more, for a gallon of gas! When I was a youngster, the lowest I remember gas costing a mere 23 cents per gallon. And people older than me remember it being even cheaper.
So, yes gold doesn’t produce anything useful, like a factory does, but it’s a “store of value” asset that protects us from the destruction of our currency during inflationary times. Traditional investment gurus are claiming that gold is in a bubble because it’s at record price levels. We’ll always hear this as the price of gold continues to rise during the coming years. Will gold reach bubble proportions? – Probably, but only when the economy begins to be productive again, with nearly full employment and a debt load that’s finally under control. Do you see this happening anytime soon? – Not likely! That scenario is many years away.
As pension funds and other investment funds around the world come to the realization that gold should be a part of their portfolios, its price will skyrocket even further. It is currently estimated that less than one percent of the trillions of dollars in these funds are invested in gold. In global financial terms, the gold market is small compared to all other investments. Therefore, an investment of just one, two, or three percent, for example, by these funds will push the gold price to extraordinary heights. Just remember where the price of gasoline was during years past, and you can see a similar analogy – only it’s happening faster this time around.
When buying gold, many people want to look through a “microscope,” so to speak, and try to buy at a low point in the near term. Unless you’re an expert commodities trader, you won’t be successful. I saw many of my own customers miss some very nice profits in gold because they didn’t buy when it was below $1,000 per ounce two years ago, or more recently at just over $1,400 per ounce, as it was last summer. But does this really matter when gold reaches $10,000 per ounce, as some experts are predicting, because of the inflationary period we’re now entering and because of large investment funds jumping in?
The best strategy is to follow the long-term trend. Don’t buck the trend! And be observant of economic trends. We’re now reading and hearing about how the U.S. government recently raised retirement contributions from $16,500 per year to $17,000 per year because of inflation and also raised Social Security checks by 3 ½ percent for the same reason. We’re just at the start of a new inflationary period. Our national debt is now $15 trillion. Three years ago it was $10 trillion, and 10 years ago it was $3 trillion. It’s getting unsustainable, and I’ve read that when it gets to between $20 and $25 trillion that’s when things will really start to get tricky for our government and the Fed to get a grip on the economy. Interest rates will rise very high, like they did during the early 1980s where they reached the 20 percent level.
So, get in while we’re at the beginning of this trend, both to preserve the purchasing power of your assets and to profit. For the above reasons, many investors want to invest in the real thing – physical gold – which is outside the financial system, rather than gold stocks, or “paper gold” through large investment pools. Physical gold is best purchased in one ounce sizes which come in coin form issued by government mints, such as the American Eagle Gold coins produced by the United States Mint, or the one ounce gold Canadian Maple Leaf coins. There are many others, struck at sovereign mints around the world, and experienced coin dealers are some of the best sources to buy them from. Give any of us a call, most of us are happy to answer your questions and help guide you through the process of owning gold – how to buy it, where to store it, how to resell it, etc.
Mark Ferguson was a coin grader for PCGS , a market analyst for Coin Values and has been a coin dealer for more than 40 years. He has written for the ANA, Coin Dealer Newsletter, Coin World, Numismatic News, , Coin Values, The Numismatist and currently has a weekly column on CoinWeek. Mark can be reached at Mark Ferguson Rare Coins ( www.mfrarecoins.com)



