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Having Fun With Serial Numbers
31/08/11
Having Fun With Serial Numbers
| By Neil Shafer, Bank Note Reporter August 31, 2011 |

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This article was originally printed in Bank Note Reporter.
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Notes have serial numbers—so what of it? Most of them have some numeric indicator, and that can’t be much of a story, let alone an article on the subject. Want to bet that there may actually be some real substance to such a thing? Well, if you don’t think so at first, hold on awhile and think of it again after you finish what I’ve written and showed you here—then at that point you may have changed your mind a bit.
I was drawn to the subject of serial numbers as a direct result of an exhibit prepared around 1978 for the Memphis paper money show that was presented by a member of my family. Who was it? Amazingly enough it was my younger son Daniel, who for a very short but intensive few months became interested enough in the subject to consider it a challenge to locate “funny” or strange serial numbers. But even though he had a great and inexhaustible supplier of world notes —me—this particular area of collecting was one where I really could not be of much assistance.
Whereupon Daniel set about finding his own notes at the various conventions he went to with Joel and myself. As an example of what he did, the German 500,000 mark of 1923 you see with this article has an eight-digit radar note he spotted in some miscellaneous assortment he had gone through—pretty good catch I thought. Anyway, I made sure when he took leave of active numismatics that it stayed close to home.
I have to admit that among the first-ever world notes I obtained (around 1954 or thereabouts) is a little Danish private issue of 1811 that I found of unusual interest for only one reason—it bore a handwritten serial number. It is illustrated with this article. As would be expected, over the years my interest in this aspect of paper money collecting has grown, until today it is as strong as any other in the field.
But I still have not shared a lot about what I believe makes numbers so attractive. When you think of a date on a note, how often would you first look at its serial number? In a number of instances the first two digits signify the year, as you can see on modern West African States issues. Sometimes serial numbers also contain the series, making the number look much longer than if only the actual number of the note was involved. Brazilian and Peruvian notes are good examples of issues with such long numbers.
How many times does a serial number have to appear on a note? Of course there is no set figure, but wouldn’t you think one or two is enough? Well, how about five or six? Take a look at notes from the Belgian Congo from the 1940s; I believe serial numbers may appear that many times on some pieces.
There are times when the serial number itself, being in a certain range or with some specific series designator, gives the note a completely different history than its ordinary lookalike counterpart. Some great examples where this situation arises are seen with notes that look like regular French Equatorial Africa issues. These special pieces have prefixes and numbers in a designated range showing them to be issues of the French colonies of Reunion or St. Pierre during World War II. Naturally these special notes are worth a lot more on today’s market than the normally issued pieces.
Another group of wartime issues, now widely known, have to do with a portion of Philippine notes dated 1936 and 1941. The exact story of these very special issues came to my attention as far back as 1959, during the time I was living in the Washington, D.C. area. I had joined the U.S. Air Force Symphony stationed at Bolling Field, participating there from 1955 to mid-1959. The rehearsal schedule allowed me time to pursue a master’s degree in music plus hours per day of research time at the National Archives and Bureau of Engraving. That research concentrated on background data for U.S.-Philippine coin and paper money issues. There was a virtual treasure-trove of material on both aspects, with each becoming a separate book fully covering all the details I was to uncover.
At the Archives I was merrily examining all sorts of documents dating from around 1901 to 1937, when the whole episode came to an abrupt end with a notice in the research pile that from 1937 on the files were all classified SECRET and not available for study. I was totally shocked, but had no choice except to cease my work there.
My next stop was to the Bureau of Engraving, hoping against hope that their files were accessible but since one place was closed I fully expected the next one to be off limits as well. But to my great surprise and glee it turned out to be open for study, and I was simply able to pick up exactly where I had left off at the Archives. Little did I know what surprises lay in store for me.
Factual data regarding Philippine coinage dwindled by the end of 1939, but the background facts behind the clandestine paper money issues of the war were just beginning to unfold. I recall literally stumbling onto the story of how the War and Navy Departments had called for special printings in 1943 and 1944 of 1936-dated and 1941-dated Philippine currency notes. It’s all in the books now, but I remember sitting there, more and more wide-eyed as the full story came out, especially the part about having a certain group tumbled around with floor sweepings, coffee grounds etc. to resemble used notes to drop over the guerrilla fighters. I knew with great elation that I was the first to have found out all these details about occurrences no one ever dreamed had taken place.
And as if you didn’t already know, the reason I relate such a story to you here is because of a single fact: The only distinguishing features separating these special printings from regular notes are their serial number ranges.
There are many other ways of demonstrating the importance of serial numbers on notes. Often certain prefix or suffix letters, or the lack of same, indicate replacement notes. With issues normally using six-digit numbers, the millionth number of each run is usually set by hand, creating a highly sought variety. Then there are errors involving serial numbers; at times such pieces may have a spectacular appearance.
In any discussion of serial numbers we must also include such aspects as the use of different numeral styles, often a quick identifier of the printers. Special printings may be indicated by color variances. Handwritten numbers are most often used in times of emergency. Certain kinds of sequences are sought for their own sake. So you see, there is really a lot more to the study of these numbers than you might have thought.
1899 Morgan Had Role in Roy Rogers Movie
| By Tom LaMarre, Coins Magazine August 30, 2011 |

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This article was originally printed in Numismatic News.
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You might say that an 1899 Morgan dollar had a starring role in a Roy Rogers movie released in 1948, “Night Time in Nevada.”
In the story, a murdered miner’s lucky silver dollar points his daughter and Roy in the killer’s direction.
Mounted in a horseshoe-shaped metal holder engraved with the miner’s name, the silver dollar is an 1899, from the year he was born.
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I won’t give the plot away entirely, but at the end of the movie, Roy hands the lucky dollar to the miner’s daughter. However, she rejects it, saying it had never brought good luck to anyone. Roy agrees and throws it off the side of a mountain, not far from the body of the murderer who fell to his death.
Because of the film’s western setting, the coin was probably an 1899-S, one of the more than 2.5 million silver dollars struck at the San Francisco Mint that year. Among them were “medium S” and “wide S” varieties.
The Philadelphia and New Orleans Mints also struck silver dollars in 1899. The 1899-O can be found in “small O” and “large O” varieties.
The Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890 had picked up where the Bland-Allison Act left off, providing for the production of millions of silver dollars. But it was repealed in 1893.
Many 1899-S dollars may have been struck from imported silver. In 1898, Treasury officials arranged for J. & W. Seligman & Co. to exchange silver bullion for certificates of deposit.
The company controlled the Anglo-California Bank of San Francisco, which received silver consignments from Mexico, Central America, South America and British Columbia.
The silver bullion, averaging 10 million ounces a year, was to be turned over to the San Francisco Mint for conversion into silver dollars.
It may not have worked out exactly that way, however, because the San Francisco Mint’s silver dollar production in 1899 fell short of the quantity it would have struck if it had used 10 million ounces of silver bullion.
Nevertheless, a Treasury officer said that demand for silver dollars was unprecedented in 1899, and that it came from every section of the country. This was something different. Traditionally, silver dollars had been most popular in the West, and were neglected in other parts of the country.
Silver dollars even attracted the attention of the criminal element. In March 1899, six men were arrested in New York City and charged with making and selling counterfeit silver dollars. The bogus coins were described as “clever imitations” which had fooled many bankers.
Silver dollars of 1899 may have been unlucky for counterfeiters and big-screen outlaws, but they’ve turned out to be a real bargain for collectors. Coin Prices lists the 1899 dollar at $170 because of its mintage of only 330,884 pieces. But the 1899-O and 1899-S are each valued at less than $30 in Fine-12.
As for the movie, “Night Time in Nevada,” it’s available in Mill Creek Entertainment’s “Cowboy Classics,” a collection of 100 Westerns on 24 DVDs.
Why I Am A Coin Dealer
31/08/11
Why I Am A Coin Dealer
| By Patrick A. Heller August 30, 2011 |

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Someone recently asked me why I was a coin dealer. After giving a quick answer, I later thought about it in more depth. It turns out that there is a more to my choosing to be a coin dealer than simply trying to earn a decent living at something I find interesting.
I have always been an idealist, thinking that I could help improve the world one person at a time. This attitude largely came to me by observing both of my parents doing exactly this. They went above and beyond their job descriptions to improve people’s lives one small step at a time, with the result that many people benefitted far outside their circle of co-workers, friends, and families.
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Most people dream of improving their financial well-being and security. As a coin dealer, I provide value to people to help make their dream a reality. But it’s not only offering competitive buy and sell prices, the real value of a dealer comes from these activities:
• Doing constant research to understand what is really happening in financial circles, then trying to explain it in understandable terms. This research involves identifying those who know what they are talking about, those who doesn’t have a clue but pretend that they do, and those who just don’t understand. Part of this process is developing reliable contacts who will give you the straight scoop (for which you return the favors over time).
• Writing consumer protection articles, giving speeches, and becoming a customer advocate, even in circumstances where it does not generate any business for you, such as providing volunteer professional expert service for the state attorney general’s fraud investigators.
• Giving customers, readers, and listeners the straight scoop, and doing so in such a way that they understand and can better decide what is in their best interest.
• Becoming a trusted adviser for the customers’ best interest, where you are comfortable not getting a particular deal when they found an opportunity elsewhere.
• Publicly decrying some “less than honest” business practices committed by some in the industry.
• Working (and paying the bulk of the financial cost out of pocket) to achieve a statewide sales and use tax exemption on the retail sales of rare coins and precious metals.
• Aggressively cooperating with police departments and county sheriffs to prosecute the occasional crook that dares to sell stolen merchandise to you.
• Employing a deeply knowledgeable and experienced professional staff that can handle almost any question a customer may have.
• Realizing that customers don’t have any “stupid” questions. Instead, perceive that they are doing an intelligent thing by seeking information on something where they have inadequate knowledge
• Providing a friendly and safe environment to visit.
• Avoiding cold calls to customers to badger them to buy “the next great thing.”
• Offering free education to the visitors at your “museum.” There is so much fascinating history involving coins, paper money, and exonumia.
• Sharing the fascination of numismatics with schools, fraternal organizations, senior citizens groups, and the like, making sure to pass around actual treasures that listeners can touch.
• Assisting fellow dealers and collectors for the mutual benefit on the hobby and industry. Supporting organizations and trade associations both financially and with a commitment of time.
• Helping student employees develop an entrepreneurial spirit. This has been one of the greatest satisfactions in my 30 years as a coin dealer.
Maybe you thought that all you had to do to be a coin dealer was figure out how to acquire merchandise at prices below what you could sell it. While that is certainly necessary, I think you will find that the coin dealers who engage in providing some of these extra values will derive greater enjoyment in their career. And, guess what, if you treat your customers like they are the most important people in the world, you will also likely get a greater financial return.
Patrick A. Heller owns Liberty Coin Service and Premier Coins & Collectibles in Lansing, Michigan and writes Liberty’s Outlook, a monthly newsletter on rare coins and precious metals subjects. Past newsletter issues can be viewed at http://www.libertycoinservice.com. Other commentaries are available at CoinUpdate (http://www.coinupdate.com). He also writes a bi-monthly column on collectibles for The Greater Lansing Business Monthly (http://www.lansingbusinessmonthly.com/articles/department-columns). His radio show “Things You ‘Know’ That Just Aren’t So, And Important News You Need To Know” can be heard at 8:45 AM Wednesday mornings on 1320-AM WILS in Lansing (which streams live and becomes part of the audio and text archives posted at http://www.1320wils.com).
Brooklyn NY Coin Dealer Steve Halfon Murdered in Robbery
By CoinWeek on August 24, 2011 8:11 AM
In a New York Daily News article just posted, it was reported that NY Coin Dealer Steve Halfon,61, was robbed and murdered yesterday.
According to the story, at 5:30 pm yesterday Halfon had just closed his shop , Liberty Coin Co on Kings Highway in Gravesend, Brooklyn and was walking to his car,when he was set upon by three men. Witnesses said the attack, in broad daylight was vicious and that the attackers beat Halfon and then stuffed him into the trunk of a Black Volvo and drove off.
A short time latter, Halfons body was discovered by a passing motorist on East 7th Street in Midwood who notified police. The Volvo used in the attack was found shortly thereafter abandoned several blocks away.
As reported in the Daily News article witnesses said “One guy gets out, covered in blood, and walks down the street like nothing happened,” said a witness. The suspect threw his bloody T-shirt, a Yankees hat and a gray hoodie in a sewer before running away with the two others.”
At this time there are no details as to what or how much was stolen from Mr Halfon, though police were told that he often carries large amounts of cash on his person. It is not believed that any coins were taken or that the suspects gained entry into Mr Halfon’s coin shop.
The three suspects are still unidentified and no arrests have been made.
ANA Executive Director Placed on Administrative Leave
By American Numismatic Association on August 23, 2011 10:07 PM
The following is from a press release CoinWeek received from the ANA this evening:
“American Numismatic Association Executive Director Larry Shepherd has been placed on administrative leave during an organizational review process, President Tom Hallenbeck has announced.”
That’s it, no other information was released, no details or reasons were given.
New ANA Governor Greg Lyon did make a few statements on the PCGS message boards in response to some questions, His posted comments are below.
“Unfortunately, I cannot add much to this discussion beyond what was released in the press release. As many of you are aware, there are significant legal reasons why details cannot be released. This decision was not taken lightly and was clearly in the best interest of the ANA.
At this point, an investigation will be conducted by a third-party group and any further decisions will be made by the board subsequent to that investigation.
I am saddened that this had to be one of the first actions I took after joining the board. I welcome any questions — which will be answered as best possible — through this thread or private messages.”
The “Third Party Group” Mr Lyon referred to is Employer’s Resources of Colorado which handles HR issues.
Mr Lyon went on to say that “There was a board vote taken, as the ANA Press Release states. This is not a political move — and has nothing to do with the convention (other than timing), but rather one based on evidence presented to the board.”
In response to another comment Mr. Lyon continued,“I would love to provide you more details, but because of legal reasons, I cannot. The Board felt that there was significant reason to take this action but details cannot be shared.”
CoinWeek will be contacting as many sources as we can to follow-up on this situation to see if we can provide additional details as to the nature of the issues involved and the reasons the Board felt it necessary to take this action at this time.
The Coin Analyst: Ten Reasons Why Gold is Not Yet a Bubble
By Louis Golino on August 24, 2011 7:00 AM
by Louis Golino for Coin Week
Many people say gold is a bubble about to burst, but is that really the case? One of the problems with identifying bubbles is that one is not certain one exists until it has already begun to burst. I do not think that is the case with gold today, at least not yet.
1.) The average American is selling gold, not buying, because they need the money and believe the mainstream press, which keeps telling them prices will collapse soon because they are too high. In the late 1970′s there were huge lines winding around coin and jewelry shops as everyone rushed to get in on gold. Today if you go to those establishments and wish to sell, you had better plan on being there a while because so many people want to cash in on high prices. Not nearly as many people are buying, at least at the retail level, in the U.S.
People at cocktail parties may be talking about gold’s meteoric rise, as Dennis Gartman, a longtime commodity trader and author of the Gartman Letter said recently, but they are mainly doing just that – talking about it. If you ask people if they actually own gold, relatively few people outside of the very wealthy and people outside of America in fact do.
2.) Only 1%-2% of the world’s wealth is in gold. During the last bull run in the late 1970′s, 5% of the world’s wealth was in gold. Much is being made of the fact that the exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the price of gold (GLD) has surpassed the total value of the ETF that tracks the S&P 500. But what is not mentioned is that one company’s total stock shares, Apple, have a value that is four times that of GLD. The gold market is only a fraction of the equity market, and the bond market is much larger still.
3.) Most demand for gold comes from India and China, which are expanding economies likely to continue growing. As the size of the middle class in Asian countries increases, more and more people seek to protect their assets from rising inflation. Emerging markets are the major growth area in the world economy in the coming years, so this trend is likely to continue.
4.) There is a remarkable degree of skepticism about the current gold rally, especially in the mainstream financial media. Hardly a day passes without commentators on CNBC proclaiming that gold is a bubble and that wise investors should sell. The same is true of magazines and newspapers like Barron’s, Money, and Kiplinger’s, which regularly feature articles warning about the dangers of investing in gold.
5.) Gold’s status as an asset class is changing. Some people now call it an alternative currency rather than just a safe haven or a hedge against inflation and uncertainty.
6.) Central banks all over the world have been purchasing gold in order to diversify their balance sheets. With not just a declining dollar, but literally a race to the bottom among the world’s leading currencies, further debasement of fiat currencies is virtually guaranteed. This is being done to make exports cheaper to prop up growth and to reduce the value of outstanding debt. Moreover, it was recently reported that the U.S. money supply just hit an all-time high. It can take time for increased money supply to translate into inflation, especially in a basically recessionary environment, but that will be the eventual impact of the various rounds of quantitative easing.
A member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government called on August 23 for European Union countries to pledge gold reserves as collateral towards future bailouts of eurozone countries. European central banks now have another reason to own gold.
There is lot of speculation about whether Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke will either announce a new round of monetary easing on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming meeting of financial experts and officials, or an extension of maturities on existing asset purchases. Gold may decline significantly if Bernanke disappoints in this regard, but it is likely to be a relatively short-lived decline.
7.) In the past few weeks, as gold continued to hit one new high after another, margin requirements were increased 22% earlier this month on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and a small increase was made by the Shanghai, China exchange effective later this week. Brief corrections in the price of gold have generally brought out enough buyers to push prices at least part of the way back up. For example, early on August 23, gold hit another new nominal high of $1917, and over the course of the day it retreated to below $1830, but a few hours later it was back up around $1850, which is where it ended last week.
However, additional margin requirements in the near future are likely to knock prices down, as is increased profit taking, which is always a possibility when an asset rises as quickly as gold has recently.
8.) If gold were in the final stages of its current rally, it would be hitting what is called a “blow-off top.” That would mean prices going up something on the order of $100 or more a day. It would also probably not be the case until gold surpasses its inflation-adjusted 1980 high. That would mean a price of about $2500 per ounce. Until we see prices in the range of $2500 or more, I doubt the rally is over. And when it does end, I am not so sure prices will collapse to the levels many financial analysts predict such as $1,000 or less, especially in the absence of a liquidity crisis as we faced in late 2008.
9.) Corrections within bull runs are healthy because they help build support for prices at higher levels. If gold had not corrected this week, I would be more concerned, but that is not what has happened. I would tend to agree with those who are predicting prices of $2,000 by the end of the year, depending on how the overall economic situation develops.
10.) Finally, mainstream analysts always say gold is a fear trade, or an end of the world trade. But it is really a hedge against uncertainty rather than economic collapse. There is a huge amount of economic and financial uncertainty in the world today. As long as Europe and the U.S. remain mired in what is a recession by any other name, and plagued by debt problems and dysfunctional political systems, I think gold will perform well. None of those conditions are likely to change in the near future.
None of this should be taken as a suggestion that gold is an investment without risks, or that it is not currently a crowded trade at the investor level. Going out and buying a lot of bullion or relatively low premium collectible gold coins right now does entail risks. And if you need the money, or feel you need to reduce your risk and take some profits, selling makes sense. But when you hear someone saying gold is all the rage these days, ask them if they own any. When lots of people respond that they do, then you may want to consider selling more of your position.
Louis Golinois a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA, PCGS, NGC, and CAC. He has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.
The United States Mint has just announced plans to issue a five-coin American Silver Eagle 25th Anniversary Set. The maximum mintage would be 100,000 units, with an ordering limit of 5 per household, and anticipated start of sales in late October.

From the available information, the set seems to contain two coins unique to the set. If this is correct, these two coins would be tied for the second lowest mintage Silver Eagles, after the key date 1995-W Proof Silver Eagle.
The US Mint’s press release indicates that each set will contain:
- one Proof Silver Eagle from the West Point Mint
- one Uncirculated Silver Eagle from the West Point Mint
- one Uncirculated Silver Eagle from the San Francisco Mint
- one reverse proof Silver Eagle from the Philadelphia Mint
- one bullion Silver Eagle
The 2011-W Proof Silver Eagle is currently available for sale from the US Mint individually, priced at $59.95. The 2011-W Uncirculated Silver Eagle has been scheduled for individual release on September 29, 2011 with the price not yet announced. Bullion versions of the Silver Eagle have been available since the start of the year, produced at the West Point Mint or San Francisco Mint without a mint mark.
The two potentially unique coins included in the set are the 2011-S Uncirculated Silver Eagle and the 2011-P Reverse Proof Silver Eagle. Provided they are not released in any other format, these coins would have a mintage of 100,000 each, in line with the maximum production level established for the set.
In 2006, the US Mint offered the 20th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set, which included the 2006-W Proof Silver Eagle, 2006-W Uncirculated Silver Eagle, and 2006-P Reverse Proof Silver Eagle, priced at $100, limited to 250,000, with a limit of ten per household. Additional offerings included a 20th Anniversary Gold Eagle Set, which included a similar line up of one ounce gold coins, with the sets priced at $2,610, limited to 10,000 units and ten sets per household. Finally, the 20th Anniversary Gold and Silver Eagle Set included the one ounce 2006-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle and 2006-W Uncirculated Silver Eagle, priced at $850 per set and was limited to 20,000 units. The first two sets sold out within weeks. The final set sold out after a few months.
Following the release of the 20th anniversary sets, the US Mint later offered the uncirculated coins with the “W” mint mark separately. The reverse proof coins remained unique to the set.
Earlier in the year, I had speculated that the US Mint might offer a 25th anniversary set for the American Silver Eagle. From the details released so far, the offering seems to be an excellent opportunity for collectors. Barring any unforeseen factors, the sets should sell out quickly and move on to secondary market success.
Public Hoards Coins in Kenya
23/08/11
Public Hoards Coins in Kenya
| By Richard Giedroyc, World Coin News August 22, 2011 |

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This article was originally printed in Numismatic News.
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The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is letting the public know the bank is not happy with the coin hoarding the bank alleges is going on in the African nation.
According to a July 10 AllAfrica.com report, Kenyans “keep a total of 2.5 billion shillings in coppers and silvers in their office drawers, car glove compartments, piggy banks, purses, old shoes, and cracked metal cups.” The CBK, the article says, “is not amused.”
According to information recently released by the CBK, the central bank has distributed 1.2 billion coins with a face value of about 4.8 billion shillings (about $54.4 million US) for the fiscal year ending in April 2011.
The report continued, “The central bank knows that 2.5 billion shillings [in value] irritating circular pieces of metal make a difference when injected back into the economy.
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It is the kind of money that can build a fully-fledged hospital for instance.”
Teko Lokoyetum is the CBK Director of Currency Operations. In the July 10 AllAfrica.com report he says, “Of these coins more than half the pieces are being withheld or hoarded by the public while others are carried away by tourists as souvenirs.”
This appears to be the latest salvo in a continuing war between the CBK and what it tries to paint as a public that would rather hoard then spend the coins the bank provides into circulation. However, the bank concedes that “the Kenyan shilling has lost value so much so that even street beggars frown at being handed copper coins.” This may be the real reason why the coins are not circulating in Kenya.
Of course the article also emphasizes that “The cost of repairing torn pockets is higher than the value of the coins. Matters are further compounded by commercial banks that charge clients for depositing coins.”
Much further into the article the bank then shows its true intentions saying, “For these reasons the CBK is planning to demonetize (stop the use of) the 5, 10 and 25 cents and the 5-shilling coin.”
This is the direct opposite of what was announced about two months earlier. At that time Kenya was supposed to be preparing both new coins and bank notes that would comply with the new constitutional requirement that neither currency vehicle can portray an individual. At that time Assistant Finance Minister Oburu Oginga said it would take about 18 months to come into compliance with the new law.
Lopoyetum was quoted by the June 7 issue of Capital Business as saying, “We did a quick analysis and realized that [the] majority of Kenyans are holding coins in one way or another and our concern is that perhaps Kenyans don’t realize that as we (Central Bank of Kenya) continue minting more coins, we are spending much more of taxpayers’ money.”
Lopoyetum may reportedly be concerned with the high cost of striking more coins, however in parliamentary hearings two months ago, it was revealed through Assistant Finance Minister Oburu Oginga that a contract to print paper money was recently cancelled, then replaced with another contract with the same company that would cost even more to print the same notes.
High Gold Not at Peak Yet
23/08/11
High Gold Not at Peak Yet
| By Patrick A. Heller August 23, 2011 |

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As I write this Tuesday morning, the price of gold has topped $1,900 overnight for the first time ever. Thus far in the month, gold is up almost 16 percent and silver more than 7 percent. This is definitely not a normal August for precious metals.
The typical August is part of the summer doldrums, where gold and silver prices are relatively stable. Many people are on vacation. There are no special gift-giving times in Far Eastern nations. Jewelry manufacturers usually don’t place holiday season precious metals orders until September. There is a feeling that one can always wait until tomorrow or next week to trade gold and silver.
Since gold and silver have been so strong this month (and in absolute terms), it is fair to ask if prices are near a peak.
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In my judgment we are nowhere close.
In other articles and newsletters, I have detailed global financial crises that are now growing worse on almost a daily basis. These problems are not getting genuinely fixed. As a result, the financial uncertainty will continue to prompt more people to seek the safety of gold and silver. However, there are several fresh developments that indicate prices could continue to rise.
Even as the spot price rose in COMEX trading yesterday, the number of open silver contracts rose about 5,800. This is a sign that one or more major players are taking on JPMorgan Chase’s short positions by snapping up any new short contracts that are offered for sale. This implies that JPMorgan Chase’s previous tactic of shorting silver contracts without owning the physical metal is no longer successful at driving down the price. Instead, what will likely happen now is that more buyers will come into the market.
On Aug. 12, the latest Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary August indication of consumer confidence reported the lowest level since May 1980. The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade within 1 percent of the 73.70 level which would give a technical signal for the U.S. dollar to quickly fall further in value.
There is widespread negative public reaction (and that is stating it mildly) to the revelation of how much the Federal Reserve secretly loaned to major U.S. and foreign banks in 2008 to avoid the collapse of the banking system. Altogether, the Fed advanced up to $1.2 trillion at the peak on Dec. 5, 2008. According to Bloomberg, this amount exceeded the combined profits of all federally insured U.S. banks for the entire decade through 2010. It also dwarfed the $46 billion of Federal Reserve crisis lending on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after the attacks on the World Trade Centers and the Pentagon.
The top beneficiaries were Morgan Stanley at $107 billion, Citigroup at $99.5 billion and Bank of America at $91.4 billion. Among the top 30 borrowers, the Royal Bank of Scotland received $84.5 billion and Swiss bank UBS borrowed $77.2 billion. Even Germany’s Hypo Real Estate Holdings collected $28.7 billion.
What the public may be sensing from this new disclosure is just how precarious the global banking system really is. People are literally alarmed at the size of the bailouts and also that the details were kept secret. It leaves them uneasy about just how much other bad news the U.S. government is hiding today.
The strongest indicator to me that we are not near peak prices is the behavior of our customers. At previous major market peaks, there was a frenzy of the general public rushing to buy gold and silver – with little attention to due diligence. Although there are more people buying precious metals every day, it is nowhere near a frenzy. Also, the buyers still tend to be those who have done their due diligence to understand why they are buying. They are not just buying because the news is reporting gold at new high prices on almost a daily basis.
In contrast, we are repeatedly setting records for the largest number of customers selling gold and silver to us in a single day. The sellers today, however, are often seeking cash flow to help pay the mortgage, utilities, or for food and are taking advantage of the higher metals prices. We had long lines of customers selling precious metals to my company at the peak in late 1979 and early 1980, but they were then mostly taking advantage of unexpectedly high prices rather than necessarily seeking to help put food on the table and a roof over their heads.
I don’t expect gold and silver prices to peak until we see the general public seeking to buy gold and silver simply because the prices have been rising. We are not close to that point yet.
Patrick A. Heller owns Liberty Coin Service and Premier Coins & Collectibles in Lansing, Mich., and writes “Liberty’s Outlook,” a monthly newsletter on rare coins and precious metals subjects. Past newsletter issues can be viewed at http://www.libertycoinservice.com. Other commentaries are available at CoinUpdate (http://www.coinupdate.com). He also writes a bi-monthly column on collectibles for “The Greater Lansing Business Monthly” (http://www.lansingbusinessmonthly.com/articles/department-columns). His radio show “Things You ‘Know’ That Just Aren’t So, And Important News You Need To Know” can be heard at 8:45 a.m. Wednesday mornings on 1320-AM WILS in Lansing (which streams live and becomes part of the audio and text archives posted at http://www.1320wils.com).
We will be at the ANA show in Rosemont, IL August 16-20, 2011 at the Donald E Stephens Convention Center. 10-6 Daily. Table 1536. Stop by and see us.

